question d'un lecteur sur les usa et le gold du fmi

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Bonjour, La découverte de votre site m’a permis d’ouvrir les yeux sur la complexité du monde économique et financier et c’est passionnant. J’utilise cette adresse pour vous posez une question que je n’arrive pas à résoudre en parcourant tout les sites que j’ai trouvé à travers vos infos. Je n’arrive pas à comprendre pourquoi l’administration US s’oppose à la vente de l’or du FMI alors que justement cela lui donnerai les moyens de continuer à contrôler les cours, c’est apparemment ce que cherche les anglais dans les discussions actuelles sur la dettes des pays pauvres ? J'espère n’avoir pas abuser de ce “contactlecteurs” pas des questions peut être naïves, dans tous les cas merci pour avoir mis à la disposition de néophytes de précieux points de vue sur la situation du monde. cordialement, J2rôme

bonne question , cher lecteur ...

qui en appelle d'autres ..

- Qu'en est-il exactement de ces reserves du FMI ...? n"auraient t'elles déja pas été "prétées, gagées", c'est à dire échangées sous forme de swaps" tout comme une bonne partie de l'or des BC occidentales ..
dans ce cas mieux vaut faire du "bruit" souvent avec, ça marche tout autant pour capper les cours que de passer à l'acte...one shot only...

- les anglais n'ont aucun intéret national minier à protéger .
ce n'est pas le cas des usa .. et ce sont d'ailleurs des sénateurs representant des états fortement miniers qui se sont opposés au projet initial, soutenu semble-t-il par le gouvernement... sachant pertinement l'impact baissier sur le gold donc la diminution de la marge beneficiaire et du niveau d'emploi des mines us que cela aurait, par exemple au Nevada ...

une excellente illustration de ce phénoméne est la descente aux enfers des mines sudafs laminées par la hausse des coûts de production , dues à la hausse du rand contre le $ ... là ce serait un phénomène inverse par pincement des marges, mais le résultat serait comparable ( par parenthèse, le phénoméne Rand Sudaf contre US$ est en train de se retourner à l'heure actuelle )
les sénateurs us en question ne veulent pas de ça chez eux ...

- 3eme hypothese .. la vente du gold ( ou le pret ) fmi se ferait ou est en train de se faire via des accords extramarkets...

- Par ailleurs, annuler des dettes, dans un système de dette, c'est remettre en cause le fondement même su système et la toute puissance du FMI (qui ne râte pas une occasion d'envoyer ses "médecins" prescrire encore et toujours la même ordonnance d'austérité et de privatisations à outrance, quels que soient les symptômes de la crise à traiter) et ce serait aussi donner un signal clair aux autres pays que la dette non annulée, on peut tout autant s'auto-exonérer de la régler...déjà que la Malaisie de Mahatir a refusé avec un succès évident la potion des toubibs en noir et que l'Argentine subordonne le remboursement à la délivrance de nouveaux prêts d'un montant identique à celui des remboursements arrivant à échéance, et que le Brésil se fait tirer l'oreille...

De plus, toute baisse de liquidité ( donc de force de frappe) du FMI diminuerait la capacité (du FMI et donc indirectement des USA) à s'imiscer dans le réglement des crises ultérieures, potentiellement contagieuses pour l'économie occidentale en général et US en particulier.

Enfin, la rumeur plus qu'insistante concernant un scandale "pire que ceux du LTCM et du Tiger Fund en 98" sur les hedge-fund pris à contre-pied par la dégradation des obligues Général Motors (et bientôt Ford) qu'ils détenaient et détiennent encore massivement (via des leviers irresponsables) est certainement jugée plus immédiatement menaçante en termes systémiques...et ce genre de fantaisie requiert une capacité à mobiliser des fonds énormes et à les mobiliser très rapidement...ces deux exigences ne sont-elles pas incompatibles avec une diminution massive de la tréso du FMI, (préssenti comme prêteur en dernier ressort à la place du prêteur en dernier ressort ?).

C'est en tout cas une bonne question, à laquelle nous avouons sans honte ne pas avoir une réponse toute faite, des pistes sérieuses, des indices graves et concordants, ça oui, mais aucune certitude, car il y a bien là un indéniable paradoxe que tu as bien fait de relever.

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Pour compléter nos réponses, voici un point de vue dissonnant provenant pourtant d'un GATA soldier...c'est original mais assurément digne d'intérêt:

Selon lui, notre opposition est vaine et même contre-productive et plutôt que de les laisser nous menacer sans relâche à chaque hausse du métal, (que, du coup, ils parviennent à enrayer), crevons l'abcès une bonne fois pour toutes, qu'ils le vendent, et tout d'un coup même, on aura, certes, une baisse momentannée, mais elle sera brève, et quel pipeau restera-t-il pour enrayer la hausse logique qui s'ensuivra?

Mieux même, le simple fait de la disparition de cette menace récurrente sera un facteur haussier en soi.

Après tout, les 900 tonnes représentent au plus 6 jours de deficit US...peanuts...!

QU'ILS LE VENDENT...!!!

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Let them sell Gold

Goldbugs are against the sale of IMF Gold Reserves. I believe this is a tactical mistake. We should not only support the sale but insist it be done quickly. Here’s why:

The IMF recently released an April 2005 update of Central Bank Gold Reserves which can be found on the World Gold Council Website . Let’s focus on the fifteen signatories to the 2nd Washington Agreement which went into effect Sept 27th 2004. This agreement limits their gold sales to 500 tonnes per year for the next five years.



The key number is the one in red:

402.9 tonnes of Gold sold between Oct 15th 2004 and April 26th 2005 when this list was last updated.

Some other points:

1. The fifteen banks themselves have only admitted to 365.4 tonnes sold.

2. The monthly average over the first 7 months of the agreement is 57.5 tonnes (52.2 tonnes if we take the lower number as being accurate).

3. Over the remaining 5 months, if they stick to their limit, they can only sell 19.4 tonnes per month.

4. The ECB sale of 47 tonnes was a big surprise, perhaps a sign of desperation.

5. Eight of the signatories have not sold any Gold. The Swiss, major sellers during the first round, have now stopped. The Germans are split. The faction advocating more sales seem to have, at least for now, lost the debate. That means ten signatories will probably not sell going forward.

Over the remaining 53 months of this Agreement, sales of just under 2100 tonnes are allowed. The French have said they will sell no more than 500 tonnes (436.4 left). This leaves potential sales of 1660 tonnes without named sellers. The market has factored in these future sales. But where will they come from?

Here’s a second table showing the Gold reserves of Germany and the IMF from 1999 to 2005.



Over the past few years, on numerous occasions when Gold was at a critical point technically (which would attract new buyers) the German Central Bank would scare the market into retreat by announcing a huge future German Gold sale. But look at the Table. If the Germans did sell any Gold they certainly aren’t reporting it.

Now that the German Selling Faction has been defeated, a new game has begun. Whenever Gold breaks out, Gordon Brown announces the possible sale of up to 900 tonnes of IMF Gold. He says this is meant to assist indebted African nations. This threat of IMF Gold is not new. It was made even more forcefully during the Clinton years. Yet once again, look at the table. There have been no reported IMF sales.

It should be pretty obvious what their game is. Greenspan does the same thing with Interest Rates to support the US Dollar. Move the markets in the desired direction with a hint of Gold Sales or a bigger Interest Rate rise but do nothing. Repeat when necessary. There are so many leveraged individuals in the market who cannot afford to lose that retreat is almost guaranteed.

Most Goldbugs seem to be against IMF Gold Sales arguing that it would be bad for Gold Producing Nations. This may be true but perhaps Goldbugs have another motive. They are afraid the sale of 900 tonnes will hurt them personally. But look what happens. No Gold Sales, just the threat, and yet the Gold Price goes down which is not what the poor African Gold Pruducing nations require.

So I would argue, let’s change tactic and support the sale of 900 tonnes of IMF Gold. Not spread over a five year period but ALL AT ONCE. Let them dump it on the market. All 900 tonnes of it. Sounds like a lot until you price it in Dollars. At $426/oz it works out to $12.3 Billion which is exactly six days worth of the US Trade Deficit. There’s nothing to fear but a brief spike down. And then the Gold Price will pop right back up probably to new highs because the threat of sale has been removed. They can only sell the 900 tonnes once. But they can threaten to sell it over and over again as long as they have it.

As far as the poor African Gold Producing Nations are concerned they can have their cake and eat it too!

Less debt and a higher Gold price.

We live in a world of deception. Smoke and Mirrors. We are obligated to use the Paper Money created by our Governments to serve their purposes rather than ours. Those who created this fraudulent Monetary System are con artists and liars. They had to lie to introduce the system and they have to continue deceiving us to conceal its ruinous effects. As circumstances change the liars have to adapt, to add further lies, more elaborate lies. Deception takes on a life of its own. It circles in on itself, around and around, trapping the liar and more importantly the truth which the liar is trying so desperately to hide, in a web of deceit so grand that when it fails, it will fail spectacularly. While at first it may seem futile to examine lies and half truths, we soon learn that lies themselves can be revealing. For each lie has a purpose and that is to make us look in the wrong direction away from the truth. And the truth is Central Bankers are afraid of selling more Gold!

Today we see Gold priced in Euros on the verge of breaking through the €350 barrier which has held for years. This is big news and we can be sure the threats to the Gold market will be coming thick and fast over the weekend. And Gordon Brown? He will be hosting a meeting of Finance Ministers in London to discuss guess what.

Cheers from Auckland, Ed Wener

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Ca se précipite...40 milliards de dette annulés ( sans vente Gold)
Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

As you'll see from the Associated Press story appended
here, the Group of Eight industrialized nations agreed
today simply to cancel $40 billion in debt owed by poor
nations and to do it without reference to the gold held
(or supposedly held) by the International Monetary Fund,
which Britain long had been proposing to sell to
compensate the lenders for writing off their bad loans
to the poor nations.

But since the lenders were really only the industrialized
nations themselves, acting through international
organizations, the IMF's gold would have been sold -- if
it really hasn't long been sold off surreptitiously anyway
-- only to compensate its own owners, and so any such
transaction would have been, in effect, simply a wash.

As GATA and others long had observed, the industrialized
nations, if they wanted to, could just as well cancel the
debts of poor nations without any IMF gold sales or
compensating transaction at all. After all, it's all only fiat
-- infinite imaginary money created effortlessly by printing
press or computer entry, simply an instant tax claim on
the true wealth of the world, so much of which has been
flushed down the rat holes of poor nations only to turn
up in the numbered Swiss bank accounts of their dictators
and their bankers.

Thus the tedious years of talk of IMF gold sales turns
out to have had only one effect, which well may have been
its only purpose anyway: scaring the gold market to
depress the gold price, the inverse of the price of fiat
currency, so as to prop up fiat currency and maintain the
power of the central banks that issue it.

The G8's writing off the poor nations' debt presumably
will terminate the IMF gold sales threat, and this stands
to improve the gold market's morale. But of course the
central banks will look for something else to scare the
gold market with -- perhaps new alchemy, research in
physics that promises to turn lead into gold.

In any case, the G8's solution to the unpayable debt of
poor nations -- write it off and just crank up some new
money -- suggests that what the songwriter said about
the rock 'n' roll business just as well could have been
said about central banking:

.... Now look at them yo-yo's, that's the way you do it.
.... You play the guitar on the MTV.
.... That ain't workin', that's the way you do it.
.... Money for nothin' and chicks for free.

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.

http://news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&u=/ap/20050611/ap_on_re_eu/britain_g8