ECU SILVER MINING – STILL AN EXTRAORDINARY
OPPORTUNITY
Adrian Douglas
Exactly three years ago in October 2006 I wrote an in-depth article on ECU
entitled “ECU Silver Mining – An Extraordinary Junior Mining Company” and you
can read the article
here.
An update to the article was written in July 2008 which you can find
here.
The theme of the articles was to demonstrate how out of the ordinary, indeed,
“extraordinary” ECU Silver Mining Company was compared to its peer junior mining
companies and how undervalued it was. What is truly extraordinary is that three
years later the fundamental value of the company has increased dramatically yet
it is trading at 28% of its very under-valued price of 2006! They say
opportunity never knocks twice but in my view not only is the ECU opportunity
knocking for a second time but it is an even better opportunity than the first
time it knocked!
After an interview with Michel Roy, CEO of ECU Silver Mining I would like to
review some of the changes from 2006 to 2009 to demonstrate what an
extraordinary opportunity ECU still presents for investors.
43-101 Compliant Resource Inventory
In October 2006 the Measured, Indicated and Inferred resources stood at 100
Million ounces of silver equivalent. It now stands at 431 Million ozs, an
increase of 331%
In 2006 the potential category was 33-55 Million ozs silver equivalent, today
it is 570-930 Million ozs of silver equivalent, an increase of 1,590%. It should
be noted that the criteria now used makes the potential category not too far
away from being able to be upgraded to become “inferred” resources.
Production
In 2007-2008 the company diverted most of its efforts away from production
toward exploration. Its small production facility was mainly used as a pilot
plant to experiment and fine tune laboratory testing in order to determine the
ideal processing procedures and to make small scale tests for bulk mining.
In 2006 the company produced 678 ozs of gold and 304,486 ozs of silver during
the year. This gives a monthly average of 57 ozs of gold and 25,373 ozs of
silver. This equates to 38,400 ozs of silver equivalent on average per
month.
The company re-purchased an oxide mill earlier this year, which it had sold
to Hecla in 2001. It was able to get this plant up and running very quickly. In
2006 the company was only mining sulfides and the output from the sulfide mill
was concentrates which needed to be further processed by a third party smelter
to extract base metals and precious metals. The smelting costs were high and
reduced the operational profit. The oxide mill produces dore bars of high gold
and silver content that can be sold directly to a refiner with no requirement
for smelting.
ECU has been ramping up the new oxide mill and trying to optimize the
recoveries. In September the company produced 702 ozs of gold and 13,744 ozs of
silver. That equates to 61,100 ozs of silver equivalent, an increase of 60% over
the average for 2006.
The mineral material being processed has increased from an average of 210 tpd
in 2006 to 530 tpd in October 2009, an increase of 152%.
The company continues to expand the throughput of the mill and to make
improvements in metal recoveries. Currently there are 29 mining crews operating
in the mine and this will shortly be increased to 39.
Profitability
In Q4 2006 the company reported a net loss of $7.6 Million. It should be
noted that Q2 2006 was the first ever profitable quarter for the company. It is
highly likely that Q4 2009 will be profitable for the company. Looking at the
projected expansion of production the company should be able to generate profit
margins well in excess of 30% in 2010 without factoring in any increase in the
costs of precious metals.
It should be noted the extraordinary difference between ECU and most of the
junior explorers. ECU has resources of 431 Mozs with a potential to exceed 1.3
Billion ozs. For most other juniors when such a resource is proved up they would
need to invest $500 million dollars or more to construct a mine. The ECU
properties have existing mines in place that were acquired from the previous
owners and the exploratory work has been to successfully discover and define
more mineral material both laterally and at depth. These additional mineral
resources are accessible and able to be mined by expansion of the current mine
infrastructure. Most junior explorers have to assume large debt burdens to take
a discovery to production and it typically takes years to reach profitable
production. ECU has less than $25 Million in long and short term debt and is in
a strong position to deliver free cash flow to fund its expansion and
growth!
Mineralized Systems
Up until 2006 ECU resources were contained in thin mineralized veins that did
not lend themselves to bulk mining. But the discovery of a massive “mineralized
corridor” comprised of mineralized stockwork zones has opened up the potential
for bulk mining which could transform the company’s production capacity leading
to much higher revenues and profits. The company is finalizing a scoping study
in this regard.
Sustainability
In 2006 ECU was establishing a large mineral resource but was spending cash
to do so. When the credit crisis hit in 2008 the company changed its focus. It
aggressively switched from exploration to production. The company is now
generating more revenue than its costs and does not plan to dilute its
shareholdings by any equity financing. It plans to grow organically and fund its
future exploration and development from operational profits. This gives the
company a significant differentiation from its peers, most of which depend on
debt or equity financing for sustaining their operations.
Metals Prices
In October 2006 the gold price was $600/oz while in October 2009 it is
$1050/oz, an increase of 75%.
In October 2006 the silver price was $11.90/oz while in October 2009 it is
$17.5/oz, an increase of 47%.
Exploration Potential
In October 2006 there was a strong geological model that suggested that the
massive sulfides in two deep skarns could be the source of the mineralization
that is found in the shallower vein systems throughout Velardena. In 2008 some
drilling was performed to test the model. Two very large intercepts were made of
high grades:
· 3.66 g/t Au, 295 g/t Ag, 7.87% Pb and 12.07% Zn over core length of 12.04
metres (40 feet).
· 7.90 g/t Au, 550 g/t Ag, 11.25% Pb and 27.68% Zn over core length of 1.75
metres (6 feet).
You can read the press release
here.
Unfortunately due to a depth capacity limitation the drilling equipment was
unable to cross the entire target zones. The size and grades of these intercepts
suggests that some astonishingly large and high grade resources are lying at
depth. These grades and widths are like nothing found anywhere else on the
property! The assays revealed silver and gold content was increasing with depth.
While more exploration work is required the chances of making a major high grade
discovery that has long been postulated to be the biggest exploration jewel of
the Velardeña property have significantly increased since my article of October
2006.
ECU Stock
In October 2006 there were 213 Million shares outstanding while to date there
are 283 Million, an increase of 33%.
In October 2006 ECU was trading at C$2.65 while currently it is C$0.75.
In October 2006 ECU was selling for C$5.6 for each ounce of measured,
indicated and inferred (MI & I) silver in the ground; that equates to 42% of
the above ground spot price of silver. Today it is selling for C$0.49 for each
ounce of measured, indicated and inferred (MI & I) silver in the ground;
that equates to 3% of the above ground spot price of silver!
Extraordinarily Undervalued!
When all the characteristics of ECU are taken into consideration it appears
to be extraordinarily undervalued:
- ECU is operating in Mexico which has a low political risk and is
traditionally mining friendly
- Very competent and experienced management for both exploration and
production activities
- A massive increase of M.I. & I resources to 431 million ozs silver
equivalent has been achieved
- Almost 1 billion ozs of silver equivalent is logged in the “potential”
resource category
- Daily mineral processing has increased by 152% and is still being ramped
up
- Recovery of metals from the feedstock has been optimized
- Oxide mill output is dore bars that eliminate any need for high cost
smelting
- ECU is now generating revenues that are significantly above the operating
costs bringing sustainability to the company to expand and grow without equity
dilution or taking on new debt
- Total debt burden is less than 25 million dollars
- Possibility to move to bulk mining in the future pending conclusions of a
scoping study that is nearing completion
- Still the opportunity for a “bonanza” high grade discovery in the deep
massive sulfides as the source of higher level mineralization
- The company is selling for US47 cents/oz of M.I. & I silver in the
ground! Traditional valuation of mining companies when silver was around $12/oz
was in the range $2-$4 per oz in the ground
When all the progress that has been achieved by ECU since my article exactly
three years ago is considered it is unbelievable that the stock is trading 72%
less than it was then! As the precious metal bull market gets into full gear
investors will come pouring into the junior mining sector like a modern day gold
rush. They will be hunting out companies like ECU that are priced at bargain
basement levels with a very low risk profile. This extraordinary opportunity may
not last for very much longer because markets over time price all things in line
with their value. For the time being though ECU is an extraordinary junior
mining company that is extraordinarily cheap!
Adrian Douglas
October 18, 2009
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For full disclosure I am pleased to say that I am a long
standing share holder of ECU. This article has not been commissioned by ECU and
I have not, nor will I, receive any compensation for writing it. Mineral
exploration is a tough business with many risks involved; please factor your own
risk tolerance into any investment decisions.
_________________
SILVER is KING...Go GOLD...!!! 