achats en nette augmentation d'une part ( russie , philippines, Grèce et Kazakhstan)

et ventes du systéme WAG2 en nette diminution.. comme vous l'avons pointé ici dans nos précédents posts sur ce sujet



Central banks are becoming gold buyers, Blanchard & Co. says

By Neal R. Ryan
Vice President and Director of Economic Research
Blanchard and Co. Inc., New Orleans
Wednesday, February 7, 2007

www.blanchardonline.com

According to recently updated IMF reserves statistics, some central banks have begun purchasing significant quantities of gold over the past few months, in stark contrast to the most recent figures available to the market, says Donald W. Doyle, Chairman and CEO of Blanchard and Co. Inc.

The central banks of Russia, Kazakhstan, Greece, and the Philippines all have added to gold held in reserve, according to figures updated February 5, 2007.

"The general trend of central bank activity regarding gold reserves has changed a great deal in the past year," Doyle says. "For the first time in the seven years of the program, banks affiliated with the Central Bank Gold Agreement failed to reach sales quotas in 2006, and now, with updated IMF reserve data just published, it is apparent that gold sales have slowed. In addition, the much-anticipated and speculated-upon gold buying is finally emerging in the market."

According to IMF statistics, Russia has added 7.45 tonnes to reserves, Kazakhstan has added 7.38 tonnes, Greece has added 3.56 tonnes, and the Philippines added 1.4 tonnes. While Russia stated publicly in 2006 that it would increase its gold reserves substantially over the coming years, the moves by other central banks were unexpected in the market, clearly a bullish signal, Doyle remarked.

Blanchard and Co. Inc. is the largest and most respected retailer of American rare coins and precious metals in the United States, serving more than 350,000 people with expert consultation and assistance in the acquisition of American numismatic rarities and gold, silver, and platinum bullion. The Blanchard Economic Research Unit is a key source of precious metals market analysis and continues to be an important resource for financial and consumer media throughout the United States. Blanchard and its predecessor companies have called the New Orleans area home for more than 30 years. For more information about the company, visit BlanchardGold.com or call the company toll free at 1-800-880-4653.


http://www.gata.org/node/4792

lire la suitepost suivant

+ encore 22 tonnes pour l'afrique du Sud sur le seul mois de janvier 2007 , ajoutées à ses réserves d'or.


source midas


More from Blanchard's Neal Ryan ... in LATE and more good news:

Just saw news hit that South Africa has added nearly 22 tonnes to their resaves in January alone.

Those figures wouldn't show up in IMF reports yet because of the reporting lag, but the government made the announcement at the Indaba conference this week.

That puts my count of Central Bank reserve additions that we can 100% confirm at this point over 41 tonnes in the last 3 months.

Bullish View on Gold Entices South African Reserve Bank

By Evan Pickworth
07 Feb 2007 at 11:17 AM EST

CAPE TOWN (I-Net Bridge) -- The South African Reserve Bank's (SARB) holdings of gold reserves increased markedly in January to 4.684 million ounces from 3.990 million ounces in December 2006.

According to a leading economist, this could be due to the Bank taking the opportunity to build up reserves when it is "hard to argue against a long-term bullish view on gold."

update activités des BC pour janvier 2007

achat de 10T ( russie, gréce ..)
vente de 9.6T par la france en janvier ...
aucune vente des autres BC et notamment de l'espagne et du portugal qui avaient vendu 80T l'année passée et 200T ces 3 dernieres années ...les coffres doivent etre vides ...

pas d'activité de l'allemagne et de l'italie
___________

source midas

From Blanchard's Neal Ryan:
IMF has just posted updated CB activity for January.

Banks added 10.57 tonnes (Belarus, Greece, & Russia)

France again was the only seller of any note, dumping 9.6 tonnes in January alone.

No other ECB bank has been a seller.

One real key point is that it looks like activity from Spain and Portugal who have sold nearly 80 tonnes between them over the past year and 200 tonnes in the last 3, are finally done.

Again, no activity from Germany or Italy.

2 des banques captives BCE ont vendu 16.5 T... ce qui ne s'était pas vu depuis longtemps ( déc 2006- source blanchard- voir l'autre file )) et qui explique pourquoi ça freine sur 655$
à noter et j'insiste, que c'est la 1ere fois depus décembre dernier, que la BCE dépasse son quota hebo de 9.5T..

source Midas
The weekly ECB balance sheet disclosed that two captive CBs sold E256 Mm of gold last week, 16.5 tonnes at the current book value. This compares with 0.58 tonnes last week and the WAG2 “run rate” of 9.6 tonnes. Not since the week of September 14th last year has a larger amount (32.86 tonnes) been sold (the 26.83 tonnes announced last December 20th included the pre announced 23 tonnes sold by the ECB itself over an unspecified period after September 30th).

On the face of it, this appears to be the explanation for the discernable resistance experienced last week around $655. However, much more pronounced resistance of the same type was seen in late February around $688: for this no explanation has appeared.

The Dutch Central Bank announced today it sold 54 tonnes of gold in 2006 and (by inference) 82.5 tonnes in 2005, which it disclosed left only 28.5 tonnes under its WAG2 quota (to September 2009). Presumably all of this has already shown up in the ECB data.

"Pot de chat grain" le stock...et le marché absorbe, rôte et dis: "encore...!"

encore 12 T, semaine du 19 mars .. décidément ya un truc , la ..
certainement en rapport avec la gravité de la situation actuelle... qui fait que des" efforts" sont demandés .... et obtenus ...

la france est bonne fille ....mais pour combien de temps?..elle a déja vendu 5 millions d'once ces dernières années ..
et ce n'est pas l'allemagne qui prendra le relai ..

CBGA signatories rapidly increasing gold sales

encore 17T de lachées semaine passées par banques captives de la BCE ..
soit 45.7 T en 3 semaines ... , on double le niveau des ventes BCE depuis le début de l'année

on met le paquet pour défendre le tres important niveau des 672 $..
pourquoi c'est si important ? voir cette file

naturellement , personne de sérieux ne sera surpris de voir gold monter le jour où l'iran relache les marins anglais ..

quelle farce !!

le cartel attaque lors de tensions géopo exacerbées .. pour relacher au moment de l'apaisement ...
de sorte que Pierre et Paul pensent que ... décidément gold n'est plus du tout une protection contre ce genre de risques ...

un bon bout de temps que ça dure ... en piétinant de plus en plus ...au fur et à mesure que les munitions s'épuisent ...

résultat, avec un open interest descendu de 20% depuis le 28 février, gold est de nouveau à l'attaque du tres important niveau des 672$

Oui Marie, ça ne durera pas aussi longtemps que les impôts, d'autant que ( comme je le disais déja en 99 dans lettres d'Or) une transaction implique , certes, un vendeur, mais AUSSI un acquéreur..... et de lui, la presse ne parle JAMAIS ou très rarement anyway...

le point et notamment sur le dernier des vendeurs en présence, la France
montant prévu pour wag 2 : 500 à 600T
déja vendu : 380 T
il reste donc pour les 28 mois restant du WAG2 120 à 220 T...soit 4.2 à 7.8T /mois..
largement en dessous des 26T: / mois, observés l'année passée...

ni l'italie, ni l'allemagne et encore moins l'angleterre, suisse etc n'ont les moyens ou la volonté de fournir ...

you see what i mean? ==> le dernier vendeur, la France, potentiel s'épuise ...

_____________________________________
source Midas

Once again Neal Ryan of Blanchard and Company has come up with some superb, big league insight into the gold market, as regards to central bank selling. His detailed analysis of what is coming down the pike fits in perfectly with the MIDAS/GATA analysis that the central banks and Gold Cartel are gradually running out of enough central bank gold to keep the price from exploding.
This analysis, first brought to our attention in toto by Frank Veneroso at the GATA African Gold Summit, has been playing out to a tee for the past six years. It has been THE roadmap to making a great deal of money over those years. The exciting aspect of all this is that we are about to go into an acceleration phase in the years to come as The Gold Cartel hits the wall.
From Neal this morning, to his account reps:
lien direct ici
So why's the precious metals market heading higher today on seemingly little bullish news?
For the same reason the market wasn't performing the last three weeks. The selling pressure from bank sales has abated and precious metals have become a more direct reflection of market circumstance we're currently seeing.
Been running some figures on the recent ECB sales and thought you'd like to see them, consider this the extended note before the vacation!
Since they announced their selling program with the CBGA II signing, the Bank of France has sold 380 tonnes of gold (using rough numbers total is actually 379.85). When they signed the agreement in 2004, they announced that over the 5 years of the 2nd agreement, they would sell 500-600 tonnes of gold.
By my calculations, they've got 120-220 tonnes of sales left to push out into the market over the next 28 months of the 2nd agreement to reach the low or high end of their announced sales. Broken out that's 4.2 to 7.8 tonnes of sales a month. Sales have averaged 26 tonnes a month in the latest CBGA II fiscal year. We believe that number is set to fall drastically.
Switzerland's done with their selling program, the Bank of England didn't even sign the 2nd agreement, Spain and Portugal seem to be finished selling after dumping millions of ounces on the market in the last two years, and the Netherlands are finished their announced sales as is the Bank of Denmark.
France is the only announced seller left out in the market of any size. Other banks are certainly selling a tonne here or a tonne there, but France is the only bank transacting in any volume. Germany has said they won't sell any gold reserves in 2007 and have yet to decide about 2008. Italy has made no announced plans to sell and has not sold one tonne of gold over the life of both agreements (I'd have to say knowing the little bit I do about their cash management acumen and fractured governmental system, any agreement on selling from them is remote).
So…what's it all mean?
In my mind, it means we've got one remaining seller left out in the market of any size who was more than likely behind the major sales in the last 3 weeks. We'll get an update on who sold the gold in a month. It also means that after purging over 11 million ounces from their reserves in two and a half years, the Bank of France is nearly done with their announced program and only have between 3.8 to 7 million ounce left to sell.
Unless Germany makes an announcement about 2008 or Italy changes their routine and begins selling, there are no more captive ECB banks who either have any gold sales announced or own enough gold in reserve to transact at the same levels that France has been selling in the last 3 years.
We're not only going to see CBGA II sales miss the mark this year by over 150 tonnes, we're going to see CBGA II sales for 2008 and 2009 miss the mark by 200-300 tonnes each. Supply side thoughts for further down the road, but one that is looming very large on the horizon. We're talking another 6-10% drop in both 2008 and 2009 in supply into the market.
We've seen significantly lower mine production in the last five years, we've watched 75 million ounces of gold get dehedged off of the market (with 40 million left to go), investment demand has picked up some(we still believe it will grow another 25-50% in the coming years), outside of the ECB captive banks, central banks made net additions to gold holdings in 2006…Seeing central bank sales dry up like this while so many other supply/demand factors are coming into play is a major, major bullish signal for the market. Central Bank activity (or lack thereof) and supply/demand factors are what will push gold past $800 this year and into the four digit range in the next several years. See the coming trend, understand it and prepare for it.
-END-

Sauf si Sarko passe... lui il les donne quasiment les tonnes. fire et teigneux avec ça... ...

mais non !! il est bloqué sur les prochains 28 mois ... et 28 mois c'est LONG ...

il peut pas vendre plus de 220 T...MAXI soit 7.8T /mois..sur les 28 mois restant ...et ça fait pas besef si ya personne d'autre pour accompagner ... et au sein du sytéme BCE ya pas !

les banques captives de la BCE ont vendu 12.10 T la semaine passée
17.04 T semaine précédente , soit 57.6 sur les 4 dernieres semaines aprés 3 mois ou 3T /semaine était la norme ..
et contrairement au passé, cette augmentation des ventes bce n'a pas vu le prix du spot baisser de façon significative .. juste un cappage sur le tres important niveau des 675 $-680$
Neal Ryan, Blanchard cie
ECB gold sales were updated again this morning and the increases in sales have continued. This past week there were roughly 12.1 tonnes of sales into the marketplace from two captive central banks in Europe. In the last month, the gold market has seen 57.6 tonnes of sales. The gold market hasn't seen this level of sales since 75 tonnes were sold into the market in May '06 and the gold price cratered over $100 per ounce. In the month since the increases in sales began, gold has increased in price by over $40 per ounce. In the past, significantly increased sales meant the market would have a bout of price weakness. This has been the opposite case the last month. There is no more bullish factor for this market in our opinion than to see how robust the physical demand is in the market at present as it continues to gobble up the major increases in bank sales and trend higher…



pour lire le point complet

la pression qui s'était relachée, la semaine derniere (1.94 T )reprend:
vente de 17 T cette semaine, par le systéme BCE soit 76 T en 5 semaines

source Neal Ryan, Blanchard and co ,via midas

Citation:

"ECB gold sales have been updated for the past week and again we've seen another week of massive sale increases. Two ECB banks sold 17 tonnes of gold into the market over the past week. In the last five weeks, ECB banks have dumped over 76 tonnes of gold into the market, a drastic change from sales levels over the previous six months. There are only one time in the last two years there has been this high a level of gold sales into the market in such a short period of time. The last time the gold market saw these levels of sales was May of '06 when prices peeled off of $730 and fell back to $550 over the length of the sales. Gold has increased $50 per ounce in the face of this supply increase. We will continue to harp on this issue because it is the clearest indicator of the robust physical demand currently in the marketplace. We believe once these sales moderate that the $700 will be a given…in fact, it is our belief that these sales are the only reason we haven't seen that level yet."

..............

Citation:

Few thoughts here following up on the sharp sell off this morning. 1.) Metals futures contracts are rolling forward. Traders have to shift into the new set of contracts with this month's contracts closing out tomorrow. As we stated this morning, this should cause some significant price fluctuations just before and after the contract shift tomorrow. We did not expect this much volatility, but it's the main driver behind price weakness today in our opinion. Don't be surprised to see a major jump in prices tomorrow in prices when the new contracts hit the market. 2.) US economic reports out this morning (April Consumer Confidence Index and March Existing Home Sales) both came in at worse levels than expected by economists. The home sales data was the worst the market has seen in nearly 18 years. This news started putting downward pressure on the dollar, which should have in turn helped precious metals prices greatly…obviously that did not happen. 3.) Oil has tumbled nearly a dollar and a half in the last three hours, supposedly on the same technical level selling hitting the precious metals markets today. This could shift once we get the supply figures tomorrow AM out of the EIA. We've seen six weeks of much higher than expected draws in gasoline stocks and gas prices have risen sharply in response. For a number of reasons, inflationary pressures being most important, if we have another week of larger than expected energy supply declines, the markets should roar tomorrow in the energy and precious metals markets. 4.) The physical market in London has been inundated with sales out of ECB banks in the last 5 weeks. 76 tonnes to be exact. On top of those sales needs to be included other central bank activity in the gold market via loans and swaps. No data currently exists to quantify what those loan and swap levels could be, but it's safe to assume that some lending and swapping is taking place as well. The gold market has been flooded with CB gold over the past 5 weeks from sales and lending and held up remarkably well, increasing nearly $50 per ounce. It is still our opinion that the Bank of France is the lone, major seller left out in the market with some other banks selling a bit here and there which is augmenting the overall sales levels. As tough as completely counterintuitive moves like today can be to stomach, we believe that the gold market is heading to a tipping point. The options expirations and contract rolling can certainly jostle the market on a day like today as prices are knocked down just to be reset in new contracts the next day, but ultimately it is the physical side of the market that will drive the prices to test new highs. The truth is that CB's are simply running out of gold they can sell into the market. We think this past five weeks of drastic sales increases is akin to a 'last gasp' of selling the market will see for some time. Assuming the Bank of France holds true to their 500-600 tonne sale mark for the current Central Bank Gold Agreement, they are running perilously low on supply to sell in the remaining 16 months of the agreement period. No other central bank has appeared on the scene to become a large seller and other banks have voiced that they would sell no gold this year. The possibility of increasing mine supply is turning into a moot point as there is new information hitting the markets nearly daily about falling supply figures from Australia, Canada, United States, Chile and South Africa. Central bank sales have been the wet blanket on top of the market, keeping us from the $700 level over the past few weeks. It's not a lack of follow through or investor interest that we're experiencing right now, it is five straight weeks of a massive supply infusion from CB sales that has kept prices from jumping. We might see another week or two of higher than average sales over the next two reports, but we believe where the market would have tanked in the past under such selling pressure, seeing the market digest and trend higher in the face of these sales is still the single most bullish factor in favor of considerably higher prices in the coming months.

_________________
Pépite Bull

Merci Mary pour ces "updates", c'est un point très éclairant du rôle joué par les BC dans le système...

GdB

merci Gdb j'ai trouvé interessant de tenir à jour une file de mise à jour sur ce thème ...

bce a largué 12.17 T cette semaine soit 89.6 T en 7 semaines ( donc en moyenne 12.8 T sur les 7 dernieres semaines .. au dessus du quota hebdo wag 2 de 9.6 T )
pendt ce temps la BARRICK couvre son hedge book, et GS rachéte également ( pour le compte de LIHIR et pour son propre compte sur le tocom ) ... surement une coincidence avec ce regain des ventes de la BCE ..


source midas

The weekly ECB condition statement reported two captive CBs sold an aggregate of E195Mm of gold, 12.17 tonnes at the current book value. This compares with 17.54 tonnes last week, and a notional weekly requirement of 9.6 tonnes to meet the WAG2 quota. Since the ECB group stepped up their selling seven weeks ago, they have reported 89.6 tonnes of disposals.