le point sur les réserves gold des banques centrales, par blocs de pays ..

http://www.gata.org/node/104


je vous rediffuse cet excellent papier de Ed Wener avec 1 traduction en français, assez fidéle de Belkhayatte:


http://www.belkhayate.ma/fr/mailing.php?id=55

ça tappe bien !!

un grand merci marie, ça c'est du papier, de l'info qui cause!!!
j'aime belcoyotte quand il cause comme ça;

en Europe, la suisse s'est bien démunie l'an passé!
pourvu que belkha ait raison sur le fait que l'oncle SAM
nous fait un poker menteur...
ils pourraient devenir de ce fait acheteurs potentiels.
sinon, leur réserve est impressionante.

en tous cas, UP pour les années à venir

ok marie et tu fais bien de rappeler que c'est une étude du GATA
Sioux me.

réserves usa , 8133 tonnes au 31 juillet 2005 ( au lieu des 8698 tonnes précédentes ) ... tiens donc ...565 tonnes évaporées ..

http://www.fms.treas.gov/gold/current.html

les chiffres du WGC, sur les réserves d'or au 14 mars 2008

http://www.gold.org/assets/file/value/stats/statistics/archive/pdf/World_Official_Gold_Holdings_Mar_2008.pdf


lien de toutes les statistiques disponibles

http://www.research.gold.org/reserve_asset/

update juillet 2008

Ed Wener revient fort à propos sur ce sujet .. en classant les BC en 3 catégories
- stocks stables de juin 2000 à juillet 2008, tableau 1
- stocks décroissants ( vente d'or ) de juin 2000 à juillet 2008, tableau2
- stocks croissants ( achat d'or ) de juin 2000 à juillet 2008 , tableau 3

on notera comment les BC du tableau 3 ont ( avec ce qui semble, peu d'achat d'or ) multiplié le montant de leurs réserves totales, exprimées en $.. ceci par rapport aux BC des tableaux 1 et 2
de nombreux points très interessants sont soulevés ...notamment sur les pays européens qui vendent de l'or et cueux qui ne le font pas...
également sur ceux qui achétent du $..
bref toutes les combinaisons d'option destinées à mener la politique monétaire au plan international

source www.lemetropolecafe.com

So You Think this Gold Bull Market is Over

Ed Wener

If there is one thing all gold investors know it is the Chart of the Gold Price in US Dollars from 1971 to 1980. In 1971 the Gold price was still $35/oz as it had been since the Depression. Then it rose to an all time high of just over $850/oz in 1980. Subsequently it crashed and remained in a bear market for twenty years.
That famous chart and the ensuing collapse serves as a model for many investors today. The March 2008 high of $1030/oz is, they say, the blow off equivalent of the old 1980 high of $850. But suppose the 1970 model does not accurately describe the current situation. Why should history repeat itself? That was the subject of an article I wrote for the Café in 2006 called “The Silent Gold Revolution”.
http://www.lemetropolecafe.com/Pfv1.cfm?pfvID=5362&SearchParam=silent%20gold%20revolution
I said at the time: “In 1845 Central Banks controlled around 6% of Monetary Gold. 100 years later, one country, the United States, controlled 50% of all the Gold ever mined. Today we can only estimate how much gold Central Banks control but I doubt it is much more than 10%, possibly as little as 5%. “
Which countries are buying Gold? Which are selling? How much more can they sell? As the financial crisis has evolved over the past 30 years Central Banks have become ever more secretive. We cannot trust their reports but I still think we can make some general comments as to where things are heading.
Below I’ve reorganized the IMF statistics on Global Gold reserves by dividing the Countries into three Tables according to whether or not they bought or sold or made no change to their Gold Reserves over the period June 2000 to June 2008.

.../...

The Bottom Line: Central Banks are trying to hold together the Global financial System which uses as its Reserve Currency the US Dollar. That’s their Bottom Line. But take a look at the bottom line in this table. From June 2000 to June 2008 the Global Central Bank Reserves increased from $2.061 Trillion to $8.518 Trillion. A quarter of that is due to the revaluation of the Gold Bullion but most of the rest is an increase in US Dollar holdings.
Notice how this increase was distributed.
Those Nations in Table A did not sell any Gold (or at least they didn’t report any sales). Their total Reserves tripled but half of this was due to an increase in the Gold price.
Those Nations in Table B sold 3671 tonnes of Gold but only doubled their Reserves which is due mainly to revaluing their remaining Gold rather than actually buying Dollars assets.
Finally those Nations in Table C bought a small amount of Gold (400 tonnes) from a very low base yet they increased their Reserves tenfold from $235 Billion to $2.438 trillion. That huge effort fell to two of America’s greatest rivals: China and Russia.
The Table above leaves out a lot of smaller countries with total Gold Reserves of only 800 tonnes. Yet this group of mostly poor third world nations increased their total reserves from $423 Billion to $2.225 Trillion, a fivefold increase. Clearly this has been a mighty global effort. Some nations decided to sell Gold (which helped in the ongoing war against Gold) while other nations made their contribution by buying Dollars. Let’s look more closely how this was done.
How to Read this Table: Example:: USA holdings of 8139 tonnes in June 1980 worth at the time $74 Billion at $285/oz. By June 2008 there was a tiny decline to 8133 tonnes which were worth $228 Billion at $871/oz. Because of the gold price change American Gold reserves increased from 55% to 78% of Total reserves. Moving down the list to the Netherlands we see a drop from 912 to 621 tonnes but because of the higher metal price Gold made up a bigger percentage of their total reserves (48% to 61%).
To Repeat: Central Banks are working together to stabilize a very shaky global monetary system. That they are coordinating their actions is beyond question. For example, read this about Europe from the World Gold Council Website (my underline and bold type)”
“While the gold and foreign exchange reserves of the national central banks remain in their possession, all gold and foreign exchange reserves are, under the terms of the Maastricht treaty, at the disposal of the ECB. Transactions above a certain limit (unspecified but thought to be fairly small) are subject to approval by the ECB's governing council consisting of the governors of the member central banks plus the six members of the ECB's executive board. Guidelines covering any gold and foreign exchange transactions carried out by the former national central banks have been adopted but have not, however, been published.”
United States: The primary beneficiary of this coordinated action is the United States itself. In 1944 at Bretton Woods the US agreed to back the US Dollar with Gold at $35/oz. The Dollar they said was as good as Gold. This all fell apart in 1971 yet the Dollar is still the reserve currency. Every Dollar held overseas in some Central Bank can be considered a form of tribute paid in goods and services. Yet during a period of immense stress the United States, supposedly the largest holder of Gold, has according to their own figures only sold 5.5 tonnes compared to sales of over 3000 tonnes by the European nations. Why? It that fair? Unless the cupboard is bare. See note below.
Germany and Italy: According to the quote above one must ask how is it that both these countries have sold a total of only 50 tonnes of Gold over eight years. France is selling 500 to 600 tonnes. Not only that, neither Germany nor Italy seemed to have added any Dollar assets. Why? It isn’t fair? Why doesn’t the ECB demand that they sell some Gold. Italy had great difficulty qualifying for entry into the Eurozone and rumor has it that part of their Gold reserves may have been used for this purpose. With respect to Germany please read James Turk’s 2001 article Behind Closed Doors about the possible 1700 tonnes Gold swap between Germany and America at: http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_01/turk042301.html
Japan, India and Taiwan: Japan has not changed its Gold reserves in 30 years. One could argue that the Japanese contribution was their massive purchase of US Dollar assets up from $330 Billion to $1.02 Trillion in only eight years. India did not add any Gold but it’s foreign exchange reserves increased from $39 Billion to $303 Billion. Taiwan has not changed its Gold reserves in 20 years. But, like Japan, it tripled its foreign exchange reserves.
Algeria, Libya, Romania etc: I won’t go into the details but take a look at the additions to their Reserves.
China and Russia: Here is the big MYSTERY. China has increased its reserves ten fold and holds 20% of Global reserves all by itself (only 1% in Gold). Russia has increased its reserves 30 fold in eight years. That was in June. These numbers are even higher today. Why? I suspect a lot of it has to do with the 1997 Asian crisis and the 1998 Russian bond fiasco. During the Asian crisis both local currencies and share markets collapsed. Shares of good companies were selling at 10% to 20% of earlier highs. Those with cash in early 1998 would double and triple their investments in Asian shares within a year. Some Asians believe the crisis was engineered for precisely this reason and they were unable to protect their national interest because of insufficient reserves. But why buy Dollars rather than Euros or Gold?
The Future: Where from here? GATA has maintained for some time that Central Banks have 10,000 fewer tonnes of Gold bullion than they claim. Given the joint effort Central banks have made to save the Dollar System one has to ask why the cost has been spread unequally. Two thirds of Central Bank Gold is held by those countries listed in Table A yet they have sold next to nothing during the past eight years. Germany and the IMF, both with large stocks, have teased the market for years with proposals for future sales. One has to wonder where’s the beef?
All the nations selling Gold are in Table B. So far they’ve sold 35% of their holdings. France we thought would never part with its Gold. Switzerland we were told was finished selling two years ago until they were coaxed into parting with a further 150 tonnes. Why ask the Swiss and not the Italians?
In 6 weeks we begin the fifth year of the 2^nd Washington Agreement with another 500 tonnes scheduled to be sold. The makeup of the sellers has not yet been announced. After that things could get very interesting. The market will take any reduction in the 500 tonne/year rate of supply as very Gold friendly. Are Table B countries willing to commit another 2500 tonnes to a 3^rd Washington Agreement? Or will they recruit more sellers from Table A?
I think we can safely forget the 20,503 tonnes in Table A until one of those countries moves to Table B. And those in Table B are now down to only 7000 tonnes. Neither the Swiss nor the French will sell all their Gold.
Is this Gold Bull market over? Don’t bet your life savings on it!
Cheers from Auckland, Ed Wener
P.S. For those wondering about the actual amount of US Gold left I recommend another article by James Turk from 2001 called The Mystery of the Disappearing SDR Certificates which ends with this comment:
“In the 1960’s the US government dishoarded over 9000 tonnes of gold rather than admit that the dollar had been debased and was no longer worth only $35 per ounce. Now it appears that perhaps as much as 7,000 tonnes (227.7 million ounces) has been swapped for essentially the same purpose – to intervene in the market to fight the truth, rather than admit that the dollar has again become very debased relative to gold.”
http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_01/turk081401.html

les chiffres WGC arrétés à mars 2009
http://www.gold.org/assets/file/value/stats/statistics/archive/pdf/World_Official_Gold_Holdings_Mar_2009.pdf

variations depuis juillet 2008

france : -95t
suisse :-60t
bce -26.70 t

russie : +65 t
venezuela : +7.10 t

ED Wener

ci dessous, un point sur l'évolution récente des réserves OFFICIELLES ( cad double comptées * à la maniére WGC..)..avec les derniers attendus sur la vente inopinée de 35.T tonnes par la BCE

doubles comptées pour les réserves des BC occidentales, qui ne tiennent pas compte de l'or qu'elles ont prété ( swaps) dans le montant qu'elles communiquent officiellement .


www.lemetropolecafe.com

Ed Wener
ed.na@xtra.co.nz


Russian and Chinese Gold Reserves and GLD


We have recently seen a lot of interesting Gold news which I would like to tie together.

1. The ECB announces the sale of 35 tonnes of Gold
   
2. The ECB reduces interst rates to 1.25% down from 4.25% in October 2008
   
3. GLD ETF now supposedly holds 1127 tonnes of Gold (up from zero in March 2004)
   
4. Chris Powell appears on Fox and demands audit of Fort Knox Gold
   
5. India announces zero imports of Gold for second month
   
6. IMF announces for the 10^th time that it plans to sell 400 tonnes
   
7. G20 leaders announce Trillions in new spending
   
8. World Gold Council updates Official Gold Reserves for March 2009-04-03
   

Let’s begin with the World Gold Council updates. I’ve gone back five years and created a Table showing the Gold holdings (and percent these Gold reserves are of their total Foreign Exchange Reserves) for China, Russia and the ECB. During this period the Gold Price has risen from $400 to $1000 and is now trading at $900. So for example, Chinese Gold Reserves which supposedly have not changed during this period, now represent 0.9% of their reserves compared to 1.7% in 2004 even though the Gold price has more than doubled. This means their total reserves have quadrupled during this period. By the way, that static 600 tonne Chinese Gold holding should be treated with the same caution as the unchanging US or Japanese or German or Italian Gold Reserves.
Russia has stated that it intends to increase its Gold holdings to 10% of foreign exchange reserves. If they did that today they would have to buy 785 tonnes. If, on the other hand, the Gold price doubled overnight, their current holdings would be worth approximately 8% of their total reserves and they would only require an additional 133 tonnes. During the five year period March 2004-2009 they increased their holding by 133 tonnes but notice most of that was during the last 12 months.
The ECB, on the other hand, has sold 30% of its Gold holdings. If we including the recent 35 tonne sale then their current holdings are 501.9 tonnes representing a drop of 35% since March 2005. Notice however that the rising Gold price has allowed ECB Gold holding to represent a higher percent (23.7 vs 22.0%) of their Reserves.

	China	% of Reserves	Russia	% of Reserves	ECB	% of Reserves
March 2004	600	1.7%	390.2	5.9%	766.9	------------
March 2005	600	1.3%	386.5	4.1%	766.9	22.0%
March 2006	600	1.3%	386.6	3.8%	719.9	25.9%
March 2007	600	1.2%	402.8	2.8%	641.7	24.4%
March 2008	600	1.1%	450.9	2.8%	563.6	26.7%
March 2009	600	0.9%	523.7	4.0%	536.9	23.7%

The Gold Cartel has a very difficult job at present. Recall the GOLDEN RULE. The Gold price will rise when Interest Rates do not compensate lenders for current Inflation. What do we see today. The ECB has dropped their rate to 1.25% from 4.25% as recently as October 2008. The IMF promises (really) to finally sell those 400 tonnes of Gold. And Our Dear “Leaders” at the G20 summit announce Trillions of Dollars of spending in a Fit of Fiat Creativity. So (what else is new) the Gold price drops 3% to below $900.
Last July, after what Don Coxe called the Sunday Night Massacre, the Gold price was forced below $700. This triggered an incredible surge in demand from India and the Middle East of several hundred tonnes. Ever since then, the Gold price has been just high enough to discourage buyers in India (which has seen a dramatic drop in the value of the Rupee). Just two years ago India imported 700 tonnes of Gold, this demand now reduced to zero. See chart below for the Indian Gold price in Rupees.

If the Gold price falls or the Indian Rupee rises against the US Dollar then India will again become a major buyer.
The Cartel much prefers to see the buying coming from the ETFs. Five years ago GLD was just getting started. Now it supposely holds 1127 tonnes. I say this because of Chris Powell’s brilliant use of the two minutes he was allowed on Fox TV. What Chris asked must be repeated over and over again. Who exactly owns whatever Gold remains in Fort Knox?
However, I believe GATA should as well stress that the ETF Gold holdings are also unaudited. Look how slowly Gold Bullion is accumulated by Russia. Yet somehow GLD was able to add 500 tonnes in just the past six months. GATA must plant a doubt in the minds of those invested in the precious metal ETFs that, like Fort Knox, their holdings are unaudited in any meaningful way. For if the ETFs are a sham, then what the Gold Cartel is doing is manipulating the price so that real bullion buyers like India are just barely “outbid” by the ETFs who in reality are only holding paper promises of Gold. Gold investments are being chanelled into paper gold. In an article today, Avery Goodman argues that the recent 35 tonnes sale of ECB Gold was made specifically to avoid a COMEX default. See http://seekingalpha.com/article/129128-did-the-ecb-save-comex-from-gold-default
Whether or not this is true, his argument is persuasive. And that over a mere 35 tonnes. Imagine the problems the ETF investors would create if they sold their unaudited “investment” and demanded 1127 tonnes of Gold Bullion.
Cheers from Auckland, Ed Wener
ed.na@xtra.co.nz

breaking news :

merci au lecteur qui nous a fait parvenir cet info
la chine qui comptabilisait 600T en mars 2009 en aurait à présent 1054 T

http://www.boursorama.com/international/detail_actu_intern.phtml?num=fec371737a970d68e2bdc0c147f551d8

m'est avis que ces 454 T supplémentaires sont ds les coffres chinois, depuis plus d'un mois ...ils n'ont pas tout dit au WGC.. et c'est seulement now, qu'ils commencent à lever .. un tout petit bout du voile ..

Or : vers 910 $, soutenu par les ETF et la Chine.

#content2cols p {padding: 4pt; font-size: 14px;}#content-news p img,#content-new td img {margin: 8px;}

(CercleFinance.com) - En cette fin de matinée, l'once d'or rebondit de 5,40% à 909,20 dollars l'once troy, contre 885 dollars à peine voilà deux jours. Le métal jaune profite de plusieurs nouvelles, dont les achats d'or par les ETF et ceux confirmés par l'Etat de Chine populaire. Diverses nouvelles contribuent au regain du métal, qui avait été dernièrement affecté par les déclarations du G20 et la perspective de vente d'une partie de l'or du FMI. Hier, le Conseil mondial de l'Or a indiqué que les ETF aurifères, des fonds adossés à l'or et cotés en Bourse, avaient ajouté 456 tonnes de métal à leur encours au premier trimestre 2009, contre 321 tonnes pour toute l'année 2009. Syndicat de grands mineurs d'or, le Conseil s'attend à ce que cette tendance se poursuive et que la demande d'investissement continue de grimper parmi l'ensemble des composantes de la demande d'or. Décorrélé des cycles de croissance, le cours de l'or est considéré comme une assurance contre les désordres monétaires dont l'inflation fait partie. De plus, des rumeurs se confirment : en matière d'or monétaire, la Chine vient de doubler la Suisse. Les réserves d'or de la banque centrale chinoise viennent d'augmenter considérablement : de 600 à 1.054 tonnes, selon un officiel de l'administration d'Etat du marchés des changes cité par l'agence Xinhua. La Chine aurait acheté cet or sur son territoire, auprès de ses mineurs - elle est le premier producteur d'or au monde - et des usines de recyclage. Récemment, le Premier ministre chinois Wen Jiabao s'était publiquement inquiété de la valeur future des bons du Trésor américain, l'un des supports sur lesquels ses réserves de changes sont investies (un peu moins de 800 milliards de dollars sur un total de 1.950 milliards, au dernier pointage). Selon les statistiques du Conseil mondial de l'Or, les réserves d'or de la Chine étaient de 400 tonnes de 1977 à 2000, avant de passer à 500 tonnes en 2001 et à 600 tonnes depuis 2002. Avec 1.054 tonnes, la Chine passe du 9ème au 6ème rang par l'importance de son stock de métal, juste devant la Suisse (1.040 tonnes). Avec 600 tonnes, la part de l'or dans les réserves de changes de la Chine était de 0,9% en mars 2009, contre 79% pour les Etats-Unis, environ 70% pour la France et l'Allemagne et 40% pour la Suisse. A 1.054 tonnes, cette proportion passe à 1,6%, au cours au jour qui valorise le stock chinois vers 31 milliards de dollars.

ça recoupe bien cet article du jour de Jim Willie (un de ces fous furieux que apprécie)

http://www.financialsense.com/fsu/editorials/willie/2009/0423.html