Hardinvestor

skipper Inscrit le : 05 Fév 2005 Messages : 8688

et pendant que silver paper market se fait matraquer .. -8.94% sur cette seule journée .. , Hommel rapporte que que pas moins de 19 dealers de silver sont à court de métal ..

et pas des petits brokers de quartier !!

skipper Inscrit le : 05 Fév 2005 Messages : 8688

nouveau texte de Hommel ... cette fois ci Kitco,, the us Mint et monex .. sont à court de métal et ont des pbs pour livrer clients !

http://www.silverstockreport.com/2008/shortage.html
_________________
Pépite Bull

captain' Inscrit le : 05 Fév 2005 Messages : 5060

Tain ça ,déchire, en effet... APU Ayé...

aaarf

_________________
SILVER is KING...Go GOLD...!!!

captain' Inscrit le : 05 Fév 2005 Messages : 5060

Pénurie de Physical SILVER(le vrai), nous y voilà selon Hommel:
ses deux derniers 2 articles en date avec les liens:

http://www.silverstockreport.com/2008/low.html

Guess who is running low on Silver! je plane pour toi

(Several major coin dealers!)
Silver Stock Report
by Jason Hommel, March 19, 2008

People are not getting silver delivered on time by the NorthWest Territorial Mint. http://www.nwtmint.com/

If this has happened to you, I'd like to hear it so I can tell others, or you can post your complaints the goldismoney.info forum, which is tracking info on many dealers:

http://goldismoney.info/forums/forumdisplay.php?f=150

If you plan to order silver from a dealer far away, you might want to review the "PM Dealer Feedback" link, above.

NorthWest Territorial Mint is listed there, and they have a bad reputation, with 26 people giving them 1 star out of 5.

State sues Auburn gold investment company, Northwest Territorial Mint
Investors didn’t get products on time, state says
http://www.thenewstribune.com/news/local/story/276620.html

"The Attorney General’s Office, the Better Business Bureau and the Federal Trade Commission have received 82 complaints against the company, the state news release said."

Attorney General sues NW Territorial Mint
http://seattle.bizjournals.com/seattle/stories/2008/02/04/daily21.html?jst=cn_cn_lk

Response to Attorney General Lawsuit Filed Against Northwest Territorial Mint
http://www.coinlink.com/News/press-releases/response-to-attorney-general-lawsuit-filed-against-northwest-territorial-mint/

Ross Hansen explains:

Northwest Territorial Mint locks its clients in to the current price of metal at the time of purchase or sale.

We then expect those clients who buy from us to remit payment within two business days, or, if selling, to ship within two business days.

In case of buying from us, whence this dispute arises, clients may pay with a personal check, cashier’s check, money order, or bank wire.

To protect against bad checks or counterfeit checks, it is our policy to hold these checks ten business days after receipt.

It is our policy to ship our clients’ products within 30 days of check clearance.

===================

Now, let's think about this. If a bullion company locks in a price on day 1, and the customer then sends a check within 2 business days, and it takes 2 more days for the check to arrive, and then the check is held for 10 days, that's 14 days later that the mint gets the money, to then spend on acquiring the silver in the open market for the customer.

How is that going to work in a rising market? That may have been a great business practice in a declining market, but in a rising market that could cost a lot. I don't understand how that business model could work. A quick look at the 30-day silver chart at kitco shows that silver prices moved from $17 to $21 within 15 days recently.

On a single $100,000 order, for 5882 ounces of silver at $17, will cost NWT Mint another $4/oz. more 15 days later, at an additional cost, or loss, to NWT Mint of $23,529 to fill the order.

I would be very nervous if I didn't get my silver from that dealer within 45 days, as the dealer claims they can deliver, because that dealer's business model is one I cannot understand. Standard investment wisdom is to not buy what you can't understand.

Also, if a typical dealer does $100,000 in volume in a day, over 30 days, that creates a "float" on customer money, of $3,000,000 per month. If you add in another 30 days because of excuses of "delays from others," then maybe there is a float of about $6 million.

I would strongly advise NWT Mint to change their business model, to only give out a price indication when customers call initially, and to wait until after good funds arrive to give a price lock, or after checks clear. At that point, a customer has a "valid account" and can then lock in a price. That's how I've ordered bullion from my trusted dealers when I know that I'm ordering more than I know they can handle.

NorthWest Territorial Mint is one of the largest private mints in the U.S., and makes the most beautiful coins, so I'd hate to see them go out of business. At present, you just have to wait about 60 days or more to get them, if you think nothing's wrong with that.

===================

On Today's Price dip.

People have such a short term focus; why are people asking me why silver dipped today? I live in Grass Valley, CA, a small town of 30,000 people. I have no idea why the price dipped today. More sellers than buyers, I guess, or maybe there was a manipulation on the futures market, thank God, that allows us to buy silver cheaper. Maybe I ought to send the CFTC regulators a bottle of wine and a fruitbasket with a thank you letter for neglecting their duties, as well as a warning that when it blows up in their face, that I hope they won't lose their heads like the officials did in the French Revolution. Anyway, the CFTC releases information every Friday so you can check what happened last week, up to Tuesday.

http://www.cftc.gov/dea/options/deacmxsof.htm

Other rumors: I've heard that 4 major coin shops on the West Coast of North America were out of 100 oz. bars yesterday; Amark, the largest distributor for Johnson Matthey in the nation, and Tulving, and two dealers in Vancouver. If you include NWT Mint's delivery delays, that's 5. Anoter man emails to tells me that a coin shop in Surrecy, BC is sold out of 1 oz. Silver Coins, and that their phones are ringing off the wall for orders and they can't fill orders for lack of silver.

So, I emailed a trusted dealer I know on the East Coast, and he said he could get Johnson Matthey bars from the refinery within a week or two; it takes that long to produce them. I've ordered from him before, he's good.

http://www.wexfordcoin.com/BullionBar.htm

It was rather shocking, therefore, to see the silver price go down so much today. Therefore, I suspect this dip will be very short.

I want to reassure all those who bought silver recently at $21/oz. I first bought silver at $5.50 in 1999. I had to wait 4 years until 2003, to see silver lose 25% to $4.15/oz. Looking back, it's hardly anything to complain about, is it? So, too, will this current dip, be long forgotten once silver is at $200/oz. or higher.

Again, the fundamentals: .007% of investors are buying silver in 2006, which is $1 billion. By the time 0.1% of money in the banks tries to buy silver within 1 year, the price of silver will be well over $200/oz., in my estimation.

Here's my projection from 2005 of what will happen to silver prices if they rise 50% per year for 15 years. (You can't even see silver's rise to $50/oz. on the chart!)

la suite ci-dessous, ça se précise... aaarf

_________________
SILVER is KING...Go GOLD...!!!

captain' Inscrit le : 05 Fév 2005 Messages : 5060

+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

http://www.silverstockreport.com/2008/crunch.html

Silver Shortage: 19 dealers reported "Sold Out"
(SOLD OUT!!)
Silver Stock Report
by Jason Hommel, March 19, 2008
You know me, I don't send out two emails in one day, so this must be important. Since my email earlier tonight, where I reported that 5-6 major silver dealers (Amark, Tulving, 2 in Vancouver, my local dealer, NWT Mint) are "out of inventory", 13 more reports came in, saying that the dealers were out of silver inventory. Some of these names are big names in the business, Scotia bank, the Perth Mint in Australia, CNI Numismatics in LA, APMEX says they have some items, but are looking to buy.

If there are any coin dealers or bullion shops that have an inventory, in stock, of more than 100, 100 oz. bars, let me know, and I'll give you FREE Advertising within 24 hours in my next newsletter.

Robert Mish reports that he has 100 x 100 oz. bars still, but he had 250 bars last week.
Mish International
Menlo Park
650-324-9110

Now think: How can the silver price drop by nearly $2/oz., when all these reports come in saying that the dealers are sold out, or nearly out, of physical silver? This is the clearest evidence of paper short selling manipulation that I've ever seen since I started watching the silver market back in 1999, and I've seen a lot of evidence!

Unfortunately, the COT reports only report through Tuesday. This Wednesday's action will not be revealed in the COT's until next Friday.

The public switched and turned buyers after gold hit $1000/oz. The coin shops normally sell to the refineries, and this creates a large part of the ~250 million oz. of silver recycling each year that meets the deficit between ~650 million oz. mine supply, and ~1000 million oz. demanded by inventory.

But now, this flow of silver just reversed. And if the refineries are not getting silver from the coin shops, industry will get squeezed, hard, and so will the major short sellers on the COMEX.

This is crunch time. Panic time.

The unedited reports follow (Names removed for privacy.)

===============

Coin shop report from St. Louis, MO. I shop at Missouri Coin and have purchased bulk 10oz bars (20 at a time) on several occasions. I went shopping yesterday and they only had 9 10oz bars available and the owner commented that he cannot find more anywhere. He was out of 10oz bars when I left...

I ended up picking up a bag of quarters as well since they didn't have the bar stock I was looking for.

A crunch is on.

J in St. Louis
=============

From: Ainslie Bullion Coy [mailto:info@ainsliebullion.com.au]
Sent: Thursday, 20 March 2008 10:53 AM
To: 'Linda Wagner'
Subject: RE: price

Sorry, I can’t quote silver until the middle of next month.

The supplier won’t quote until then

Kind regards

Geoff

Ainslie Bullion Company
GPO Box 1870
Brisbane Qld 4001
Tel: +61 7 3221 0500
Fax: +61 7 3229 1895

=============

Jason,

My coin dealer is in Bakersfield CA. Mike's Coin and Stamp. My wife and I went in on monday and bought 4 100 oz. bars. Said he had a good supply of those. I also wanted some smaller bars and I wiped him out. Only 160 oz total. He says he can't keep them in stock very long before someone comes in and empties his supply. He's having a hard time getting replacements. He's the largest dealer in the area and very trustworthy. We also bought gold. At least some people seem to be taking serious what's going on.

H

=============

HI Jason:

CNI near the L.A. airport at www.golddealer.com is the dealer I have used....They were out of silver today also...

E

(CNI is a major dealer --Jason)

=============

Jason,

Just placed another order with Perth Mint, they are out of stock on everything, however there waiting period is no longer 6 months (Im guessing they received alot of complaints) its now 6-8 weeks.

Just got off the phone with them, they have no bullion in stock, its all on backorder, the official excuse is that it takes along time to make the bars and everyone wants them, could be viiewed as a good thing knowing demand is high, but I personaly dont like waiting 6-8 weeks for delivery.

I contacted several other dealers in Sydney, only 1 out of 5 has stock...... Everyone has back orders with PM which is the distributor.

Regards,
S

=============
APMEX reports, at apmex.com

Due to the OVERWHELMING demand for precious metals, our online ordering system has been unable to keep up with our customers’ needs. We have had to disable the APMEX ordering system to allow us ample time to upgrade our site to accommodate the increased demand. We apologize for this temporary problem.
. . .

P.S. We are actively looking for new bullion inventory to purchase. If you have items that total $2,500 or more and are interested in selling, please call our trading offices at the number listed above. We are paying strong numbers for ALL Precious Metals!

=============

I want to tell you that your site is very helpfull and,i believe what you are doing,nice job in telling people about GOD money.I am a very smol investor, and i have in my posesion until now around 2000 ounces of silver bars,10 ounces and 50 ounces bars.Tuesday the 18. at scotia bank they did not have enouf silver.I wanted to buy but the vault was empty,they had only coins.And today is 19...19..This evil people work with numbers.They have dates for everything.19 is an important number for the ocult.All the best.GOD bless you and your family.

=============

Hello,
This past Monday I wired funds to purchase eleven 1,000 oz bullion bars from my dealer who I have purchased & sold sizable silver orders several times before. He called Monday afternoon and stated that none of his suppliers had any 1,000 ounce bars available, but not to worry, the next day they would probably have eleven bars to fill my order.

Tuesday, he called again, stating still none had bullion except one person had some, but he would only sell them at a ten cent premium over the dealer stated price or $1,100 more. I am a long term holder so I bought them just to have the silver in my depository possession.

By the way, my dealer is a high quality company and individual and he also stated he was flat covered over all day with transactions with people like myself buying silver. I also wonder with this condition, why the silver went down, and can't help to think about Ted Butlers assertion.

Cheers
FH

=============

Ordered 100 oz. from them early Jan. due to deliver this Friday. Way too long. My dealer in Arlington Texas is almost out of silver. Probably only has about 1000 oz. left. I will be taking some of that off his hands tomorrow.
Love your reports!
Have a great day
B

=============

mEDFORD ORE WAS OUT HAD A LINE WANTING TO PURCHASE

=============

Mr. Hommel,

I live in a small town of 16,000 In S. Illinois. I stopped by my local coin shop to pick up some Silver Eagles, and the cases were empty, except for numismatic value coins. He stated he had sold over 600+ Eagles in the last week and was waiting to receive more. I thought that to be a good indicator for the future direction of Silver. I also want to tip my hat to James Rawles for pointing me in your direction. Your e-mails are part of my recommended reading to my friends.

Thank you, RG

"Those who would give up essential Liberty, to purchase a little temporary Safety, deserve neither Liberty nor Safety." Benjamin Franklin

=============

Jason,
I called the most consistent coin dealer in Memphis Monday. I like junk silver.
I could not buy a bag at any price. I was offered 5 100 once bars, period.
He stated that he hates ordering bags as the cost leaves him with indigestion.
Usually he is buying junk on a regular basis. At this time there seems to be
NO SELLERS.
Your old homie now in the Ozarks,
goatman

=============

Locally the dealers I've done business with are always in chronic tight supply and several of them recently couldn't fill a tiny $1,000 deal, let alone what I wanted to buy. I have bought hundreds of times but never more than 7461 ounces at a time. Got it from Bill Haynes in Phoenix. I was buying 90% when it was at 3.24x face and know it's still badly undervalued. I almost felt bad when a lady came in with bags of Franklins and she heard me tell the dealer I wanted them, her heart sunk, but it wasn't me that made her sell the gem BU coins. That's how quick the turnaround is. When investors go on waiting lists for hard metal, I believe it will cause the mining shares to finally zoom. We have several stupid billionaires in Dallas-Fort Worth and I wish they'd try to take a big position---it would benefit me!

--CS

=============

Again, to get silver, make sure you go local, take cash, and get the actual bars, if they have any! At this point, it matters little which product, just get any silver that they have that is somewhat close to the spot price, rounds, bars, odd weight bars, anything.

http://find-your-local-coin-shop.com/

It was for the inevitable time like this that I diligently complied the names of people in the industry who have 100,000 oz. of silver. I have 5 names on my list, but one of those 5, CNI, is now reported to be out. I don't know about the other 4; I've heard no reports about them. See the list of large dealers at http://find-your-local-coin-shop.com/

Sincerely,

Jason Hommel
www.silverstockreport.com
www.miningpedia.com
_________________
SILVER is KING...Go GOLD...!!!

skipper Inscrit le : 05 Fév 2005 Messages : 8688

très important article de Butler, ce jour ...: dernière opportunité pour monter à bord du silver train ..

en effet nous avons de nombreuses infos ( voir la file ) de pénurie importante de silver physique ..
ce qui explique que les ( ou le ) gros shorteur ait été obligé de provoquer un violent sell off, afin de couvrir le max de ses shorts en urgence ..
c'est ce que Butler prévoyait depuis longtemps .. le signal qu'il attendait en quelque sorte et nous serons fixé avec les données du prochain Cot à paraitre vendredi prochain ..

un autre point capital à enregistrer :
c'est que ce mouvement violent a éliminé tout les spéculateurs en levier .. et essentiellement les techs funds ... ce qui ne laisse , de toute façon, plus guère de marge à une baisse plus prononcée

time to load in !

http://news.silverseek.com/TedButler/1206378069.php

ou traduction (partielle ) en excellent français , ici
_________________
Pépite Bull

skipper Inscrit le : 05 Fév 2005 Messages : 8688

excllent papier de Hommel expliquant la structure du silver physique market: pénuries et causes
eh oui, les études de survey annuels n'indiquent que les flux nets .. et notamment ceux de la D investissement ..
hors il semble bel et bien qu'on ait eu un pic énorme de demande que les vendeurs de piéces n'ont pu suivre .. faute de stocks suffisants.. le public ayant bien plus acheté que vendu ( à ces mêmes détaillants, donc c'est la source principale d'approvisionnement )

en fait il s'agit d'une pénurie de silver, sous sa forme INVESTISSEMENT ..( piéces et lingots)

http://www.silverstockreport.com/2008/structure.html

+ autres info sur les dealers de silver via les lecteurs du midas

www.lemetropole.com

Silver news…
Bill,
I know this is old news now, but my check of precious metal retailers confirms that there is overwhelming demand for the metals and that silver is running out. Below is a paste of Silver Bullion for sale by Tulving which is one of the nations largest and lowest cost retailers. They are sold out of 8 of 10 silver products, and get this; they now have a 3000 ounce maximum purchase limit. How can the silver price drop $4 when there is a silver shortage? Is this America or Russia? Where is the free market? I would love to see Bix nail the COMEX regulators on this one. Regards,
-Bryant
G'day Bill
The shortage of silver is becoming acute in Australia. I phoned my supplier (THE major in my state) this morning, to confirm the developing situation re supply and he has confirmed that he cant get silver until May. He has always had ample stocks on hand, with my son or myself able to walk in and transact on a cash and carry basis.
NOT ANY MORE!!! He can't get a price from his supplier whom I assume is the Perth Mint or the Australian Bullion Co, as these are the bars that I have received from him. He only does Open Book orders where he will take your order but will not be able to price the metal until he is assured of a delivery price from his suppliers. Mid April is when he expects to be able to price an order. He said he has knowledge of a Perth Mint customer who has his money tied up in their Unallocated Pool Account, using Silver Certificates. Taking the advice of various "hold it in your hot little hands" advocates (such as yourself, Ted Butler and Jason Hommel etc,) he tried to redeem his certificates and have his holdings transferred into an Allocated Account.
The Perth Mint has advised him that they WILL NOT buy his certificates from him and WILL NOT allocate physical silver to him. They will however ALLOW him to swap them for gold. They will only do this by slugging him on the spreads. They slug him on their buy back price for silver and then whack him for their mark up on gold. He apparently is a man on the edge as my dealer feels that he is close to topping himself over the issue. Must be on Margin. I wonder if the Perth Mint is so broke that they can't pay him. Apparently they are backed by the full faith and credit of the Western Australian Govt. Yeah Right!
Stow it or blow it is the right call from you et al, and I thank you dearly for the advice, as I was once a Perth Mint PAPER silver certificate holder.
Kindest and warmest regards
Jon G.
From Aussie Land to Vancouver and J&M Coin & Jewellery Ltd.
I'm reading on the internet that many bullion suppliers are low or out of Ag inventory. Can you tell me if this is the situation with you guys? …

It is. We have no bars of any size though we do have silver Maple Leaf coins coming in late this week or early next. Presently we are not taking advance orders on silver.

Thanks for asking J&M.

Those looking to buy silver might want to turn to one of GATA’s staunchest supporters and good friend over many years…
Hi Bill,
Thanks for inserting my email stating that we had 10,000 oz of silver in stock and ready for sale. But you put in David Schectman and no phone number. Most of your readers will not know who I am or how to contact us. Could you please make sure that they know the silver is from one of your recommended dealers, Miles Franklin, and our phone number is 1 800-822-8080.
Thanks,
David
Bill,
I called the proprietor of my bullion dealer in Phoenix today. The company is quite large and been in business for almost 30 years. The proprietor is a hard money advocate and not a gold cartel apologist like Kitco. I asked him about the rumors of a physical silver shortage. He said that a lot of the smaller dealers had run out.
They, however, planned for this bull market and so they built quite a large inventory. When he re-stocks he can find silver but not necessarily in the products he wants to buy. He said one year ago you could find anything you wanted. He said that when the price of silver went above $10 there was a lot of supply from the general public, happy to make 100% on their investment over 5 years. But he said that has dried up now. The buyers are now long term holders. Most of the supply has to come from the refiners or the US mint and that is in short supply BUT still available.
He said it was a strange business to be in because he distributes real money to the general public and what he gets in return is a bit of colored paper! He said it is a bit like owning a bar and letting people drink on a bar tab to be settled later. Being fully clued in to the fiat money scam he obviously re-stocks as fast as possible and doesn’t hold on to the pretty paper.
He said to end the tightness in silver someone has to start producing more product. I agreed, but I said the reality is that producers will provide LESS not MORE. The producers have been mining high grade ore to survive for 20 years. Now as the price rises they will mine lower grade ore which due to much higher prices will allow them to increase revenues and profits but their tonnage output will decrease putting more upward pressure on silver prices.
The pieces seem to be falling into place. Silver is getting harder to find in quantity and the small guys already don’t have any. It is smoldering brush wood, but the news of this impending supply crisis will fan the flames into a forest fire

that will multiply the demand for silver and quickly lead to supply defaults.
I would advise everyone to make sure they own allocated silver or take possession of it. For those that don’t own any the last opportunity to load the boat is rapidly slipping away. We will see a mad rush for the mining stocks by those who have missed the boat.
Cheers
Adrian
_________________
Pépite Bull

captain' Inscrit le : 05 Fév 2005 Messages : 5060

Silver Market Structure: Shortages And Sources

(Shortages can make people crazy!)

Silver Stock Report

by Jason Hommel, March 25, 2008

My recent reports on the Silver Shortages at Coin Shops and major dealers have been popular, and widely re-posted. Misunderstandings and questions are more abundant than my ability to answer them all individually; but most could be answered if only people and coin shop owners only understood the basic market structure of silver, and did a little bit of thinking for about 5 minutes, and then a bit of math on the numbers, so let's start with the numbers, as reported by the CPM Group and Silverinstitute. New reports for 2007 are expected this Spring, and I'd be surprised to see any category change by more than 5%, except maybe investor buying, which might be up. For 2008 reports, we'll have to wait a year. I tend to average the figures from both groups, and then average again to the nearest 50 million oz. or 5%.
So, for 2006:
On the supply side, there is 900 million ounces:
About 650 million ounces of silver is mined each year, and growing slightly.
About 200 million ounces of silver is recycled each year.
About 50 million ounces of silver is sold by governments each year, and declining.
On the demand side, of the 900 million ounces:
About 45% is consumed in industry including mostly electronics, and growing slightly.
About 35% is consumed in jewelry and flatware.
About 15% is consumed in photography, and declining slightly.
About 5% is purchased by investors in the form of bars and coins, and growing slightly.
Investor buying is the hardest category to track, and is generally assumed as either "implied net investment or net divestment" to make the total numbers match on both the supply and demand side. The major change 2 years ago was a switch from "implied net divestment" to "implied net investment".
More silver than the "net" is traded between investors, during a year, perhaps another several hundred million ounces, it's hard to say. The investment numbers are simply "net" figures, that factor in that there must be more total investor buying or more total investor selling, and by how much.
The numbers are from surveys, and are rough estimates, and nobody fully agrees 100%, but the numbers from those top two surveys are very close, and I don't have enough knowledge or reason to dispute them. They make sense with what I know and see and hear in the real world, and they can explain a lot about the silver market, especially the great investment opportunity that exists.
In the entire history of the world, about 45 billion ounces of silver have been mined. Of that, nearly all of it, probably between 90-95% has been consumed, and ended up in landfills, as the silver has been changed into forms that are less economic to recover than new mining. So there might be about 5 billion ounces of silver remaining in the world that has been mined, and still exists, held by people in the form of bars & coins, jewelry & flatware, and scrap.
While known silver reserves in the ground are at about 14 years, more silver will be found and mined for the next 5000+ years or more, like always. (This proves that peak oil is bunk. All mines, like oilfields, are depleting assets, but the earth is a very big place.)
Very little silver is at the 4 NYMEX approved warehouses, only about 140 million oz.
Very little silver backs up the silver ETF, SLV, about 179 million oz.
Very little silver is purchased by investors each year, about 50 million oz.
The U.S. Mint makes about 10 million ounces of silver Eagles each year.
Silver Eagles thus represent about 1/100th of the annual silver market. The current Shortage of Silver Eagles is not technically a shortage of silver, you see. Ted Butler, who writes for Investment Rarities, suggests that their endorsement of Eagles has helped to cause a run on them, and I believe it.
I would personally estimate that about half of silver recycling, about 100 million ounces, moves through coin shops and has to be sold to larger dealers and refiners. More silver than that moves through U.S. coin shops back to the public, however, in addition to the "net" flows, but the "net" flows explain a lot.
1. It explains why most coin shops don't feel there is a shortage of silver, and don't feel the need to carry silver inventory.
2. It explains how and why coin shops can run out of silver so quickly.
3. It explains why coin shops cannot say when they will get more silver, since their source of silver is the public (they don't order much from refiners, they sell to refiners).
Let's assume that U.S. coin shops are 50% of the world market in silver. So, they buy about 50 million oz. of silver more than they can sell to the public. There are about 4000 coin shops tracked by http://coininfo.com/ which I advertise to help you find your local coin shop.
If we divide 50 million oz. of silver by the 4000 shops, that comes to 12,500 oz. per shop, on average that they have to buy, more than they can sell, in a year. Times $20/oz., that's $250,000 more silver per shop, per year, than they can sell to the public (usually, but not this week!).
Like any industry, there is a range that differs from the average, where some shops do a lot more business than others.
The market structure explains the relatively insane comments by coin shop owners that my readers tell me about, these conversations confuse my readers, and often sound like this:
Customer: I'd like to get a quote on silver.
Shop: If you are selling, the price is . . .
Customer: No, I'm buying, because there's a shortage.
Shop: There's a shortage of silver? But there's plenty of silver.
Customer: How many 100 oz. bars do you have?
Shop: We are sold out right now, but if you come back later, I'd be happy to sell you some silver.
Customer: Eagles?
Shop: Sold out.
Customer: Any silver at all?
Shop: Not right now, gotta go, phone is ringing. "Hello, are you selling silver? No?"
Coin shops would love for you to come back later, because they can sell silver to you at about 5% over the spot price, but refiners and other dealers will only give them about 1% under spot, at best.
Here's another estimated calculation to determine how much silver buying is needed to "clean out" the coin shops in a week: 50 million oz. of silver / 52 weeks x $20/oz.
= $19.2 million in a week.
This is what we saw these last few days. The public bought about $19 million more worth of silver than they usually buy, and cleaned out most coin shops around North America, and the world.
See how tiny the silver market is? That's why it's such a great investment. There's way too much paper money, and so little silver available!
At the same time, the rumors I've heard are that the large banks that are bankrupt and getting help from the Fed, were told to sell some of their gold and silver, because it makes little sense for them to be getting loans while carrying so much of those "useless barbaric relics" on the books.
But investment bank silver is not typically in the same form as silver demanded by the public, and it is not sold to coin shops, but at the NYMEX, or maybe sold to refineries and mints who might be taking delivery of contracts to make 100 oz. bars or 1 oz. coin blanks.
===================
It appears to me that Northwest Territorial Mint is bankrupt. Based on Ross Hansen's letter to me last week, a reader did some calculations based on the admissions in that letter. Ross sells 20,000 oz. of silver per day. And Ross has 300,000 oz. of silver "in the pipeline", and deliveries are about 60 days, at best. There are about 43 business days in 60 days. (5/7). 43 days worth of silver, for Ross, at 20,000 oz./day, should be about 860,000 ounces, creating a deficit of about 560,000 ounces of silver that they are short, and have taken orders for, and have not yet bought that silver in this rising market from $13 to $20/oz.
I received 20 more compaints about the Northwest Territorial Mint since Friday, some readers waited 5 months to get silver, others have orderd silver in November 2007, and have not received it yet.
On Friday, one man reported to me that he walked in to the Northwest Territorial Mint and tried to get 100 oz. bars, and could only get 6 bars.
Here's an interesting story about a mint that went bankrupt in 1980.
http://bulk.resource.org/courts.gov/c/F2/634/634.F2d.1285.79-1555.79-1554.79-1553.html
"the corporation was selling silver and other products which it did not have in its inventory and did not have sufficient cash to obtain. The period of delay in delivery increased as replacements were not full and complete in terms of maintaining an inventory which allowed prompt delivery after the sale. First there was a seven or eight week delay in delivery of orders to retail customers and a shortage of about 80,000 ounces of silver which became apparent in December 1973 and early January 1974.
===================
I've continued to get reports from my readers that coin shops are out of silver; 19 reports of shortages since last Friday, here's a few more specific ones, from people who really canvased the areas to discover shortages:
International: China, Dubai, Sydney, Vancouver,
Domestic: Houston, Chicago, Seattle, San Diego.
-----
I can confirm from my recent email exchanges with the Bank of China (BOC) that BOC has now ceased selling physical products of silver but undertakes to buy the same from her customers. No explanation was given.
-----
I just became aware of this silver bullion shortage through your site, and phoned up my regular silver bullion dealer in Dubai. I have bought from them many times in the past, and can ALWAYS buy as many 1Kg Emirates Gold "silver" bars as I like. So it has been heaven for me to have unlimited bars to buy...
However when I phoned just now, they DO NOT have any in stock, and they cannot say when they will!
-----
From a dealer in Sydney, "Yes, silver is pretty scarce here too. I went around to five dealers and I could only get one bar out of them. Gold, however, appears to be more available."
-----
I can confirm that several coin dealers in the Houston area are sold out. They said things like, "I'm flat sold out. I can't buy any from my suppliers. I won't be getting any in for a while."
-----
I called my brother who lives in the Chicago area to canvass his local coin dealers that he knows to see whats up with inventory of silver and he reports back they are all out of stock...
-----
Dealers hear in the Seattle,Wa area are out of silver, I did manage to get about 56 oz of silver from Northgate coins, but that was 3 days ago. Called around today and everyone is out. I called around in San Diego (where my father lives) and everyone is out there also.
===================
_________________
SILVER is KING...Go GOLD...!!!

skipper Inscrit le : 05 Fév 2005 Messages : 8688

www.lemetropolecafe.com

Bill;
This very good friend of mine went to his bullion dealer [one of Canada’s largest] yesterday to pick up a substantial order of physical silver he had ordered one week ago. To fill the order – which was for coins / junk - the dealer had to rummage through is substantial inventory and dip into a wide variety of product including many pieces that typically carry a substantial numismatic [collectable] premium.
The order was only filled because my friend is a very good customer.
The commentary from the dealer was to the effect that, "something definitely and categorically changed in the physical silver market with last week’s bombing [he called it a price drop] of the price on COMEX". I should make mention that this guy IS NOT conspiracy minded in any way – yet he went on at some length and was perplexed to the point of possibly being confused about how demand for physical went "off the charts" on the most recent price drop.
He reiterated anecdotal comments already stated at the café that BNS [one of this usual sources] has no silver and physical is becoming rarer than hen’s teeth - but he did have one 1,000 oz J&M bar – it was still warm – he had just picked it up at the refinery yesterday afternoon, he said it was smelted the day before.
So even as the Hill Billies order their minions to smash the COMEX price – the realities of shortages in the physical market are mandating a decoupling in price of physical from paper right before our eyes – just as you and GATA have maintained should happen for years "to a Tee". I remember you telling me this 3 years ago and at that time you even told me, "we should see this situation develop in silver first – then gold".
Good call.
Best,
Rob Kirby
More on silver…
Bill,
Just looked at the Bullion Direct auction web site. They have posted an alert on the silver pages warning of delays due to a "substantial surge in activity". Also their "ask" quantities have dried up at anywhere near the spot prices and the "bids" have increased dramatically. Yikes! Looks like Bix is on the case at just the right time.
Michael Anderson
Tiger Pacific
_________________
Pépite Bull

skipper Inscrit le : 05 Fév 2005 Messages : 8688

un développement capital de Butler sur ce théme

http://news.silverseek.com/TedButler/1207068209.php

où l'on apprend aussi plein de trucs ahurissants ...

résumé vite fait ...

le violent sell off que nous connaissons ( combiné à un shortage REEL de silver sous certaines de ses formes monétaires ) est bien la signature d'un marché manipulé qui ne suit tout simplement pas la loi de l'O et de la D

si la pénurie ( réelle ) de silver piéces ( d investissement ) qui a considérablement diminué l'éventail des disponibilités au détail, s'étend à des formes de silver utilisées par les gros investisseurs, voir les utilisateurs industriels, ça va faire des dégats ... un point que ne devraient pas mésestimer les régulateurs ( car un shortage de silver "industriel" c'est bien pire qu'un shortage de silver 'investissement" )

mais surtout et d'une maniére générale, sur les marchés futures des matiéres 1eres où, les HF sont accusés de 1000 maux, je découvre les points suivants :

-oublions les techs funds que nous connaissons déjà, qui jouent en levier
- les fonds indiciels, sont une autre composante des HF... ceux la ne jouent pas en levier ..font du buy and hold ... et surtout n'ont pas le droit de demander livraison du produit ..( donc une sorte d'exception dans les marchés de futures où la contrepartie d'une vente peut à terme, demander la livraison du produit ou son équivallent en $ )
une sacrée aubaine pour les naked shorts ( c'est à dire ceux qui vendent à terme- date fixe- un produit qu'ils ne détiennent pas) ...une garantie, même, si l'on peut dire !!!

-inconvénient pour les naked short : les fonds indiciels ne jouent pas en levier
donc ces salopiaux restent assis sur leurs positions, buy and hold, quoiqu'il arrive ... contrairement aux techs funds qui débarquent dès qu'on le leur demande ... aaarf

nul besoin, de rajouter des positions nouvelles ( ça c'est les techs funds), le buy and hold depuis le début du boom des commodities suffit à mettre les shorts dedans ..

so what happens???

comme les commodities boostent +++ , les naked shorts sont mal ... même s'ils tentent une attaque .. les ventes des techs funds ne sont pas suffisantes pour leur permettre de couvrir leurs shorts ..

so??

on demande au régulateur de changer les régles, de sorte à forcer ces fonds à liquider

comment? en changeant les montants maxi détenables par une même entité .. par exemple ..

là où ça devient "drole', c'est que la short silver position concentrée n'a jamais génée les régulateurs ..ce serait le ponpon qu'ils restreignent subitement les montants maxi détenables par une seule entité ..chez les longs?? chez les shorts aussi?? ce pourrait etre amusant?

heureusement pour nous, les fonds indiciels ne sont pas présents sur les marchés de futures gold et silver ( régulés par la cftc) mais plutot sur les ETF gold et silver ( ceux la étant régulés par la SEC) ...

je tenais néammoins à vous faire part de ces importants développements ..surtout lorsque l'on apprend le projet de loi pour autoriser la fed à devenir le super régulateur ( cliquez ici )..
ya tout de même de sacrés trucs en ce moment !! crane

_________________
Pépite Bull

chef cuistot Inscrit le : 18 Aoû 2005 Messages : 2116

Un avis informé contraire :

http://www.kitco.com/ind/nadler/mar312008B.html

skipper Inscrit le : 05 Fév 2005 Messages : 8688

la réponse de Hommel à Nadler,

extrait de http://www.silverstockreport.com/2008/perth2.html

Jon Nadler today acknowledged the shortage of some silver products, in his article, "Squeeze THIS", but floats his foolish opinion that there is no shortage at all, as he writes:
"Aside from short-term, spot shortages of certain small fabricated items, there appears to be no problem. The real holdup is simply a matter of less than adequate supplies of coin blanks from which to mint one-ounce product. Call it poor planning. It has been seen before. Some mints did not figure that buyers would rush out to get their hands on small, high-premium coins at $20 per ounce silver (another sign that prices are possibly topping out). So, where is the squeeze? Only in the arteries of the brains of some very ill-informed casual market observers. Depositories are practically choking on 1,000 ounce silver bars crowding their floor space. It's amazing what tales some bored people will spin when it comes to markets they do not comprehend."
http://www.kitco.com/ind/Nadler/mar312008B.html
Jon Nadler is a blathering fool, and not even a tinfoil hat could help him tune out kitco's bearish bias and overpriced silver, and tune into reality.
The reality is that a shortage of water is called a drought. Droughts can happen on earth, even though the earth's surface is two thirds water. There can be a shortage of water for a person on a lifeboat at sea, when there is water, water everywhere, and not a drop to drink. Same with silver, because 1000 ounce bars are not what the public wants, and are as inconvenient for people as sea water.
The reality is that the Western public turned into buyers of silver when gold hit $1000/oz., and thus many investment products of silver at many places ran out; there was a shortage of the kind of silver that normal people buy, not just Maples and Eagles, but 100 oz. bars, 10 oz. bars, 1 ounce rounds, and in many places 90% junk silver was sold out too! That is called, and is, a silver shortage.
It does not mean, and I never said, that there is no silver left on earth. That silver shortage of investment coins and bars has about as much bearing on 1000 oz. bars as droughts have on the ocean. The ocean cannot be used to "disprove" a drought, any more than 1000 oz. bars can be used to disprove a shortage of silver available for investment.
Speaking of reports of abundant silver, I hear there is plenty of silver available in India, but "plenty" is a rather nebulous and relative term, and I don't know what to make of it unless there are reputable offers of silver specifying the amount, size, product, place, etc. If people in India feel they have plenty of silver and want paper money instead, then let them ship it to U.S. coin shops; there are over 4000 places of business here to choose from, and can be found here: http://find-your-local-coin-shop.com/
Let buyers of Indian silver beware; I've heard it's often smelted into 40% silver or less in various places, and it might not be standardized. The Bible gives good advice, to buy gold "refined in the fire

", (Revelation 3:18) so you know the purity.
Furthermore, depositories are definitely not choking on their 1000 oz. bars! They used to have over ten times as many of them about 20 years ago; as there was about 1500 million ounces in the COMEX depositories, today they are down to about 134,000 thousand ounce bars. They have less than 1/10th what they used to have! They are not choking on 1000 oz. bars, they are running out!
So if the 1000 oz. bars are like the ocean, then the ocean is running dry, too!
We call that "short supply" of silver in monetary terms, given that the Fed can create $350 billion in a week, which is enough to buy 50 million ounces of silver at $20/oz., 350 times over, and is especially concerning to me, given that 91% of the population now thinks that inflation is a problem.
Furthermore, the silver market structure says that about 200 million ounces of silver is recycled. A good portion of that comes from investors selling silver to coin shops, which, in turn, sell to refiners, to make 1000 oz. bars. Now, given that the public stopped selling, and turned buying, and that many coin shops ran out of silver, which we call a shortage, that means there is less supply to the refiners to make 1000 oz. bars, and that there will be fewer of them, too!
Furthermore, this shortage has never been seen before in the last 7 years, not in this bull market, not like this.
Finally, for Jon Nadler to infer that I'm lying, and telling "tales" because I'm bored, just goes to show how lazy and bored he must be; utterly incapable of doing any sort of investigative research, or making phone calls, and not even capable of making a few mouse clicks on links and read web pages of coin dealers that list that they are sold out!
I quoted many sources that showed their inventory levels as "sold out", ranging from Tulving.com, to CNI numismatics, to APMEX.com, all verifiable on the web, all major dealers, and up to 19 others, as well as quoting people who scoured all the coin shops in entire major cities around the globe and could find nothing. Are all of those web sites and people lying as well? Ridiculous. Jon Nadler, you are a foolish raving lunatic who is selling hot air; you are a perfect match for kitco, who is a seller of Perth Mint certificates and "kitco pool accounts".
_________________
Pépite Bull

chef cuistot Inscrit le : 18 Aoû 2005 Messages : 2116

Mouais, il ne nie pas que la pénurie ne porte que sur les pièces, pas sur les barres et qu'il s'agit essentiellement d'un problème de production, pas de matière première.

Et les pièces c'est quelle part du marché de l'Ag ?

Nadler confirme la disponibilité même pour les lingotins de seulement 1oz ou 10oz

http://www.kitco.com/ind/Nadler/apr022008A.html

Quelqu'un va peut-être essayer d'en acheter pour de vrai ; on saura alors.

skipper Inscrit le : 05 Fév 2005 Messages : 8688

hum ... puisque tu insistes avec Nadler, Dup ..je signale au cas où tu ne l'aurais pas remarqué .. qu'il a la double casquette "analyste" et Kitco Bullion Dealers Montreal "
autant dire que sur cette affaire, il est juge et partie .. kis tu dis?

il n'en est d'ailleurs pas à son coup d'essai .. puisqu'il nie réguliérement, toutes formes de manipulation des gold et silver market...s'il en reste 1 ce sera lui .. mdr

voir cette savoureuse file sur les forums de goldismoney, ici
_________________
Pépite Bull

chef cuistot Inscrit le : 18 Aoû 2005 Messages : 2116

He bien dans ce cas je suppose que Hommel et / ou d'autres vont le prendre au mot et passer commande à kitco, donc on verra bien s'ils le peuvent et s'ils sont livrés rapidement.