probable point bas du silver, projections de la prochaine jambe de hausse

**g.sandro** Captain Inscription : 04/02/2005 Messages : 14464

Bottom in Silver Probably in Place, Projections on the Current Leg

http://www.lemetropolecafe.com/hemingway_table.cfm?pid=8889

Bottom in Silver Probably in Place,
Projections on the Current Leg

By Erez Davidi & Dan Davidi
From comparative analysis on previous silver up legs, the following can be concluded with high probability.
First, for the information we gathered from previous legs charts.
On average:

every leg since the beginning of the bull market had two corrections,
the top of each leg was 60% above the top of the previous leg,
the top of each leg was 75% above the breaking point,
the top of each leg was 35% above the top of the last correction, and
the top of each correction became the support of the next one.

Year	Number of major corrections	Magnitude of the corrections	% Rise from Breaking Point	% Rise from the top correction B to the final top	% Rise compare to the previous leg top
2004	1	10%	57%	24%
2006	2	11% - 9%	103%	53%	79%
2008	2	16% - 9%	65%	29%	41%
2010	2 so far	8% - 15% ?
Average		10.50%	75%	35%	60%
Projection of current leg per average of previous legs			$ 33.40	$ 39.40	$ 34.30
Projection of current leg per range of previous legs			$30 to $38.8	$36.4 to $44.9	$30 to $38.2

Silver has probably finished correcting yesterday. Typically, correction B tends to hit bottom on corrections A’s top. Yesterday, silver has touched correction A’s top and has changed direction, recovering most of its intra-day losses. Moreover, most of the mining stocks filled their gaps. This leads us to the conclusion that silver has probably bottomed.
Projections:

Projecting from the previous tops, we come to a possible current top between $30 to $38.2.
Projecting from the top of the highest mid corrections in previous legs, the silver top is projected to be between $36.4 and $44.9.
The breaking point in the current leg was about $19. Projecting from the range of previous tops from the breaking point will put silver between $29 and $38.8.

But considering the much-improved technical and fundamental current situation, it can be expected that the current top might exceed all previous tops in percentage terms. Some of the improvements are:

Low interest rates
The sovereign debt crisis
China’s new dominance in the precious metals markets
QE in many countries
The dollar’s fragile situation as a world reserve currency
During the previous legs, silver was in its first stage of the bull market. Now it is in its second, which is steeper.
The appearance of quite a few new closed-end physical funds and ETFs.
The decreasing of Comex shorts by the industrials and bullion banks in the face of massive rise in price. Can we expect the short squeeze to accelerate?
The new position limits instituted by Congress.
The silver manipulation investigation and the growing awareness to silver and gold manipulation
Seasonality is not supporting a top in November

All the above are guaranteeing a very interesting winter.

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Silver is king, Go Gold !

G.Sandro
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