Comex / options or et argent - Signal bull pour nov 2008

Options or et argent / Comex / Signal bull pour nov 2008 au plus tard ,

puis juin et déc 2009



signal sur options Or déc 2008

les 2 fois précédentes, son signal a parfaitement fonctionné .. il tente le
coup une 3 eme fois .. et ma foi, je lui fais confiance pour ça

coup d'envoi pour un grand boost .. LE boost d'anthologie?? au plus tard le20 nov 2008

source


Adrian Douglas


COMEX GOLD OPTION OPEN INTEREST SIGNALS BIG GOLD MOVE

By Adrian Douglas
In November 2005 I predicted the mega-move in gold up to $720/oz by noticing a very large build-up of call options in the HUI component shares (http://www.marketforceanalysis.com/Pubished%20Articles/assets/Explosive%20Rise%20in%20Gold%20Mining%20Shares%20Coming.pdf)
In August 2007 I identified a massive Gold call option build-up in the COMEX DEC 2007 contract and predicted a big gold move (http://www.marketforceanalysis.com/Published_Articles07_assets/COMEX%20GOLD%20OPTION%20OI.pdf ). Gold was trading at $660/oz at the time and ran up to over $1000/oz by March of this year.
I am going to attempt the Grand Slam and make it three correct market calls in a row and predict another massive run up in the gold price. As I will show in this article the COMEX Gold Call Options Open Interest is again signaling a huge move up.
Figure 1 shows the cumulative Open Interest across all strike prices for the Call positions and the Put positions for the AUG 08 options.


If you read up vertically from any value of the strike price to the red line it says how many Put options are in-the-money at that price and on the blue line the total number of Call option contracts that are in the money. For example, at a gold price of $800/oz a total of 50,000 Put option contracts would be in the money. For a gold price around $1000 total of 50,000 Call options would be in the money.
The ratio of Call to Puts is 1.06 so Bulls to Bears are evenly matched. There is always a very obvious manipulation in the days leading up to option expiry as the unscrupulous cartel try to minimize the amount of contracts in the money and maximize the number of the contracts out-of-the-money. Just a few days ago gold was at $980/oz and threatening to take out $1000/oz. Had that happened there would have been a very real possibility of gold running quickly to $1100/oz. Looking at Figure 1 it can be seen that that scenario would have resulted in almost 70,000 Call options contracts being in-the-money and almost no put option contracts. These option contracts expire on July 28. Despite very bullish reasons for gold to run higher, such as Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac being close to collapse and the highest CPI inflation indicator reading in 15 years gold counter-intuitively has sold off to $960/oz. What a coincidence that this is advantageous to the bullion dealers!
However, one should be cautious in predicting that the dealers will win because one has to wonder who owns the options. Let’s take a look at Figure 2.

The bets by bulls outnumber those by the bears by a 1.8 to 1 ratio which is very similar to what the situation was in August 2007 before the large run up in gold to over $1000/oz. The Total Call option interest is 125,000 contracts which is also similar to the scenario prevailing in August 2007. This is equivalent 12.5 Million ozs of gold (almost 18% of global gold mine production). What is quite astonishing is that 85,000 contracts are on strike prices in the range of $1000-$1500 per ounce, which represents 68% of the total open interest!
I consider option players highly sophisticated speculators. Such large bets are likely being made by some large money interests who are buying out of the money options BEFORE going into the futures market. Buying long futures in large volumes will rapidly drive up the gold price but the massive open interest in the Call Options then allow access to much more futures contracts at the same price by exercising the options and then perhaps taking delivery of the gold.
Let’s just consider the AUG 08 situation. It seems a reasonable conclusion that big money is moving in o the DEC 08 contract. Although this is purely speculation on my part it would not be unreasonable to expect those same interests to have large Put positions in the AUG 08 contract IN ADDITION to large Call positions. Anyone who pays attention to the gold market will know that the cartel always takes gold down before the expiry of the options contracts as is happening now. Wouldn’t it be smart to wait for that to happen to exercise the Put options and then start buying long futures before exercising the Call options? We will soon see if that is the case.
I conclude that smart money is being placed for a massive rise in the gold price no late than November 2008. This money could not go in to the futures market without blowing the lid off the price as it would represent such a large increase in open interest. Going into the out-of-the-money option market allows flying below the radar.
Adrian Douglas
July 16 2008
info@marketforceanalysis.com

hoho ......... la short position de GS Tocom nous révéle quelque chose d'extraordinaire, ce soir !!

20 nov 2008 = date d'expiration des options call du contrat déc 2008 ... date à laquelle, il aurait couvert l'ensemble de ses shorts positions sur le tocom

il faudra donc impérativement etre passé long, et avoir bien chargé la mule, d'ici cette date ...ne loupez pas le train ...

bien entendu, ce "message" est encore plus valable pour silver, puisque celui ci est un puissant levier sur gold .. et qu'on n'a jamais vu silver et gold, aller à contresens


source www.lemetropolecafe.com



Bill,
STUNNING REVELATION FROM GS TOCOM POSITION
In the July 29 session on the TOCOM Goldman Sachs COVERED a substantial 233 short contracts to bring their net short position to 5600 contracts. This brings their net short position to the LOWEST EVER in the last 30 months (the time I have been keeping records). The chart below is astonishing. There is almost a perfect descending trend channel in the net short position of Goldman Sachs which it has followed for over two years so it can hardly be called a coincidence. If this trend continues then the very latest that GS can reach a net short position of zero is when the top trend line meets the X axis. That extrapolates to November 25 2008!! Now isn’t that amazing? That is almost exactly the same date as the expiry of the MASSIVE COMEX Call option position in the DEC08 contract. I had already predicted from the Call option structure that gold will make a huge move sometime between now and the expiry of these options. We now have further confirmation because it looks as if Goldman Sachs will no longer be net short gold by that date!

Cheers
Adrian Douglas
Gold action…
Bill,
It is very significant that the cartel best efforts to bring down gold on Monday on the day of option expiry failed. They have been able to bring gold down $30 since then, but when it mattered to take call options out of the money the buyers were in control. The massive DEC08 call option position shows there is some very big money moving into gold. They have no interest in stopping the cartel from taking down gold now that the option expiry is over. Their interest will be to pick up as much gold as they can at the bargain basement price financed by the cartel. As I write this we are only $10 above the 200 day MA…we can expect some very strong buying to emerge shortly. This is the killer move down that makes the final capitulation of those who just can’t take it anymore.
Cheers
Adrian Douglas

ENCORE un nouveau plus bas pour les net shorts gold position de GS sur le tocom

ça couvre +++ pil poil, dans le timing .. mieux que ça même .

-.50% d' augmentation de la long position en une seule séance !!
-44% de réduction de la short position en une seule séance

OUTCH !!!


www.lemetropolecafe.com



Bill,
In the September 2 session on the TOCOM Goldman Sachs COVERED an absolutely stunning 1,612 short contracts AND ADDED 351 LONG CONTRACTS to bring their long position to 1,049 contracts (a 50% increase in one session!!!!) and their net short position to 2,537 contracts (a 44% reduction in one session!!!). This is a NEW RECORD LOW for their net short position but beats the previous low by 1,963 contracts! This has absolutely astonishing implications for the gold market. GS is running for the hills. Clearly the gold market is headed MUCH higher.
Cheers
Adrian

up date Adrian Douglas 21-10-2008

www.lemetropolecafe.com

le signal extrement bull délivré par les options échéance dec2008, cloturées le 20 nov prochain est intact ..
ce en dépit des puissantes poussées baissiéres que nous traversons..





The December gold call option picture…
Bill,
I last reported on the COMEX DEC Gold CALL options on September 21. The options structure on the COMEX is still very bullish. Since 9/21 the COMEX DEC Gold CALL options open interest has only decreased 2,745 contracts to 157,874 contracts. Gold was trading at $860/oz at the time and rising so this is a stellar performance to only lose 2,745 contracts. The DEC Gold PUT options open interest has only increased 1,089 contracts to 93,967 contracts. The Call/Put ratio is 1.68 to 1 which is little changed. As I have explained before buying out of the money call options and then buying the futures is a way in which big money can get a large gold exposure as the futures buying drives the gold price higher taking the options into the money which can then be exercised. The way that the OI has remained resolute in the face of extreme price volatility induced by the gold cartel is very telling. The December contract is probably going to be the point of explosion as I have long since predicted. The 2 ¾ year declining trend of the Goldman Sachs TOCOM gold net short position indicated they would be net long gold on TOCOM before November 25. The COMEX DEC Gold option expiry is November 20. Coincidence? I doubt it.
Cheers
Adrian

gold &silver / options / signaux bull sur les options échéances juin 2009 ( gold ), juillet ( silver ) et déc 2009 ( gold et siver )

préambule :

contrairement aux marché des options sur indices traditionnels ( dow, nasdaq ) , où les participants sont le tout venant et prennent une majorité de call sur les points hauts et inversement , le marché des options gold et silver se joue entre personnes initiées, pour ne pas dire averties .. par conséquent un ratio call / put élevé sera bien un signal bull... et non un signal bear ou contrarian, comme sur le dow ou le nasdaq

A Douglas a déjà donné avec succès plusieurs de ces signaux par le passé .. seul le dernier ( options de dec 2008) n'a pas fonctionné .. comme il l'espérait .. tout simplement parceque la smart money a été prise à contrepied par le raid sanglant d'aout 2008, orchestré par 2 banques us ( probablement jpm et hsbc ) .. raid qui a duré jusquà fin oct 2008

pour mémo:
- notre file sur signal : options dec 2008
cliquer ici
- rapport cftc bancaires de juillet 2008
cliquer ici

notre smart money est donc à présent tout à fait au courant des agissements jpm et cie ..et d'une
et de deux, A Douglas a reçu de 2 sources différentes et confidentielles; que JPM et GS ( goldman sachs ) ont acheté de grandes quantités de call silver et gold.
ah, ba dis donc ..JPM et GS..acheteurs de calls !!!

du coup, il a jeté un oeil sur les options gold et silver
... et pour vous la faire courte .. les ratios call / put, gold et silver de certains contrats sont extremement prometteurs :
gold : options juin et dec 2009
silver : options juillet et dec 2009

http://www.marketforceanalysis.com/Published%20Articles_2009_assets/COMEX%20GOLD%20SILVER%20OPTION%20OI%202009.pdf


bien entendu, une correction intermédiaire voir un pull back entre ces 2 échéances, n'est pas à exclure .. lisez attentivement l'article, regardez les graphes, ainsi que les montants extremement élevés de l'open interest pour ces échéances !

et dites vous que ... la smart money sait que jpm a une monstrueuse short position .... et que JPM sait qu'elle sait .. sachant par ailleurs que les fondamentaux gold et silver sont encore meilleurs qu'en juillet 2008 ..et que les 2 le savent.... bien plus encore que vous ou moi .. n'oubliez pas... ce sont des pro du secteur ..

chaud chaud pour nos usuals suspects qui auraient donc logiquement commencé à se positionner du coté long et en levier...histoire d'alléger leur facture ...
et rien de tel que le marché des options comex, pour le faire sans trop attirer l'attention à l'avance .. , n'est ce pas?



contrat juin 2009 : expiration des options : 26 mai 2009
contrat juillet 2009 : expiration des options :25 juin 2009
contrat déc 2009 : expiration des options :23 novembre 2009


reste à faire notre choix sur ces timings ... choisir si l'on va jouer le CT 1 mois ou non ... etc
évidemment l'histoire ne nous dit pas si jpm a callé sur juin ou non ..ça serait trop facile ..

*on va être vite fixé en tout cas pour le contrat juin ..déjà, il faudra tenir les 880 $ .. puis.si gold passe sous certains seuils techniques critiques (865 $ améne à 820 $ et ainsi de suite .. ) faudra pas compter dessus amah ..
comme je vous l'avais signalé la semaine passée, le cot gold n'est pas particuliérement excitant ...contrairement au cot silver
voir notre file Cots 273
ces derniers jours, et le raid mené autour du fmoc meeting et qui se prolonge..aménent à rester particuliérement sur ses gardes .. le talon d'achille gold, que j'avais dûment signalé, a été exploité.. comme il se devait ..

*ces dernières remarques, bien évidemment
-dans un cadre Court TERME ... et pour l'échéance du contrat juin ( cad horizon, 1 mois ) .. puisque c'est de cela qu'il s'agit.. dans ce §

en ce qui concerne l'échéance fin mai gold .. voir mon dernier sentiment à ce sujet .. publié ds mon suivi cot

cliquer ici

mise à jour de Douglas àl'approche de l'expiration des options juin

www.lemetropolecafe.com


Here is an update on the COMEX JUNE GOLD CALL options.
As of May 15 the total Open Interest across all strikes was 118,764. As of May 21 with only 5 days remaining to expiry the Open Interest stands at an astonishing 115,551 contracts. The Open Interest that is in the money at $950/oz is 42,158 whereas on May 15th it was 44,644. This means that there has been almost no selling or exercising of these options as of today. If these options were to be exercised for futures contracts and the holders stand for delivery in June then this alone would be twice the gold inventory that the dealers have on the COMEX! That should be a sobering thought for the shorts!
If gold moves to $1000 in the next 5 days 60,000 option contracts will be in the money and if it were to go to $1100 then 75,000 option contracts would be in the money.
It is simple to see why the $940 in gold was so fiercely defended today. The breaking of key resistance so close to option expiry is the Cartel’s worst nightmare. From looking at the action it seemed to me that there was a very big buyer taking on the Cartel. The volatility was remarkably low. Who ever was buying was not pushing the market but was buying everything that was being sold.
This is a battle of epic proportions and it seems that the cavalry has arrived on the side of the bulls!
Cheers
Adrian

lundi prochain, 23 novembre

c'est la fameuse cloture des options gold et silver pour le mois de décembre !


comme vous le savez, les positions sont monstrueuses .. l'enjeu est de taille ...

on est vendredi .. et pour le moment, l'avantage est clairement aux longs ..

restez branchés ..

bataille des options, quelle défaite cinglante pour le cartel ..



et si, en plus, certaines de ces options, demandent à être exercées .. ce qu'on va savoir ds les semaines qui suivent ... ça va devenir TRES interessant .. vs les stocks du comex ...

je rappelle au passage, que c'est comme ça .. en exerçant des options call, qu'un certain Buffett est rentré sur silver en 1997.. se constituant "le magot" ..
1/5 de la production annuelle mondiale de l'époque ..


pourquoi les options? parceque comme l'explique, Douglas, dans son topo , c'est bien plus discret que sur les futures .. et idéal pour de GROS investisseurs...

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SILVER&p=D&st=1997-01-01&en=1997-12-31&id=p38990011576


depuis, et pour cause "d'arrangements entre amis ..", Buffett a revendu son magot .. au moment où Barclays recherchait cette quantité de physique, pour creer son ETF silver ..SLV