Bulle de l'or ? l'or bulle spéculative ? pas du tout !

le cours de l'or en bulle? vraiment ? il suffit de regarder cette série de graphiques comparatifs

graphique :or et mines d'or en % des placements de 1921 à 2009


hardinvestor /or et mines d'or

les fondamentaux de l'or sont excellents .. pas plus de bulle de l'or que de beurre en broche !

Une bulle sur l'or ? où ça une bulle?

bon, ben c'est peinard, il faut encore multiplier les cours de l'or par 35
pour retrouver les ratios des extrêmes historiques.

Adrian Douglas / le mythe de la bulle de l'or

encore de l'excellent Douglas

https://marketforceanalysis.com/article/latest_article_100310.html

Remarquable de didactisme pédagogique, c'est court, frappant, incontestable et... effrayant.

En fait, je vois, chaque jour plus que la veille, s'accumuler les traductions de ce que nous avons toujours tenté, avec un certain brio, disons le, (la fausse modestie est l'une des plus méprisables manifestations de l'orgueil ) d'expliquer à la masse incrédule de nos contemporains béatement formatés par la vision, aussi officielle que fallacieuse, des représentations de valeurs inversées...cette manipulation mentale vicieuse a été coordonnées internationalement, outre son vice intrinsèque, sa dimension pathogène réside surtout dans son ampleur, littéralement inédite.

graphique marché haussier de l'or 1970 vs marché haussier de l'or 2000



http://www.uncommonwisdomdaily.com/bullish-on-gold-but-more-bullish-on-silver-11238?FIELD9=3

une bulle sur le cours de l'or ?
ah bon...vraiment?

encore un graph édifiant

www.lemetropolecafe.com



Bill H:
Bubble? Not!
To all; the graphic below (courtesy Sprott asset management) is the ONLY chart you need to see to absolutely know that Gold is not in a bubble. In fact, this chart if truth be told tells the story of how we are living in a paper bubble. Were Gold assets to become 10% of global assets which is only 40% or so of previous peaks, one of 2 things would need to happen. Either Gold would need to rise 10 fold, paper (stocks, bonds, bank accounts etc.) assets and real estate would need to drop by 90% or some combination of the two.

on va le dire et le redire encore !!

les fonds institutionnels sont investis à moins de 1% dans l'or !

Elle est où, la soit disant bulle de l'or?
Jim Rickards parle ici des fonds qui comptent .. ceux dont la capitalisation est supérieure à 100 milliards $
on notera aussi au passage, bien que ce ne soit pas du tout le contexte actuel .. que l'or fait aussi très bien valeur refuge dans un environnement déflationniste

Citation :

And if it tips the other way and if the inflation doesn’t continue, if we get deflation which is also possible, we all know that gold does very well in a deflationary environment...Gold has had a great run, it has had a 10 year run and it’s hitting some new all-time highs recently and so people naturally worry about whether it’s going to turn around and collapse, is it a bubble? It is absolutely not a bubble and the reason I say that is that when you talk to institutions, I’m talking in the $100 billion and up category, they either have no gold or they are allocated like 1%, 1.5%...If anything they are under allocated and they are catching up.

http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/KWN_DailyWeb/Entries/2011/4/13_Jim_Rickards_-_Institutions_Are_Way_Under-Invested_in_Gold.html

Une bulle sur l'Argent affirment certains. Je leur réponds, notamment, ceci

Une Bulle Métaux précieux? et bien lisez .. plus haut dans cette file

et bien entendu, ça aussi...

le mythe de la bulle sur le cours de l'or , superbe article de Adrian Douglas


et c'est encore + vrai pour l'argent, qui jouit du double statut:
-monétaire (longtemps dénié, mais incontestable, a fortiori en ambiance inflationniste),
-et industriel, ce dont l'or ne saurait se targuer...


Alors, oui, les métaux montent; mais c'est également, c'est aussi la monnaie dans laquelle on s'efforce de les coter qui est détruite graduellement, raisonnez donc en pouvoir d'achat, en kilos de Beefsteak, en litres de lait, d'essence...
donc en onces de métaux précieux et non pas en photocopies biodégradables à destruction programmée ...

Si bulle il y a c'est sur les dérivés, notamment les dérivés de change et dérivés de taux...c'est aussi le cas des dérivés de matières premières et de métaux précieux, mais sachez que sur l'argent métal, c'est une bulle de vente à découvert et pas seulement de quantité...on vend trop de tonnes d'argent dont on ne possède même pas une once... et ça ne peut finir que par des paires de baffes...(heu, avec des gants en métal les baffes hein...).

Bref, une prétendue bulle sur du métal alors même que personne n'en détient, c'est juste une ineptie... qui peut vendre de l'argent métal réel, du physique ? puisque personne ou presque n'en détient !

Certes, une correction est possible et serait même saine à moyen terme, car le rythme de la progression est impressionnant, mais la tendance haussière de l'argent est intacte et aucun des motifs nous ayant poussés à adopter dès 2003 un biais haussier et précurseur sur l'argent, n'a cessé d'être valide;
a contrario, de nouveaux facteurs de soutien sont apparus dans l'intermède.

Petit exercice de validation du postulat: interrogez vos collègues, votre famille, vous verrez combien l'argent métal est un investissement / placement qui demeure minoritaire...

Une bulle, c'est quand tout le monde et son voisin ne jurent que par une classe d'actifs, genre les valeurs internet en 2000/2001, mais parmi les 100 premiers noms de vos connaissances qui vous viennent spontanément à l'esprit, combien en détiennent une quantité suffisamment significative pour mériter d'être mentionnée (au delà de la bague ou de la timbale de baptême donc)...?

Pas facile d'en trouver des wagons, n'est-ce pas?

Quand la réponse à cette question sera 66/100, on en reparlera, ok?
En attendant, je parie que cette réponse ne dépasse pas 5 à 10/100, si le niveau de vos fréquentations est supérieur à celui de la moyenne de nos "cons...temporains" alors il est long le chemin...vers la mania bulle de l'argent métal !

Une BULLE de l'argent ? Certainement pas...UN BULL...ça, en revanche, oui, et prenez bien garde, il est vraiment très énervé le bestiau...

un nouveau graph qui compare les différentes bulles spéculatives, notamment celle de la bulle internet ( courbe bleue ) avec la courbe de l'or depuis 2001



on est très loin de la bulle spéculative de l'or.. y compris en comparant avec l'or sur la période 1971-1982 ( courbe rouge )


mieux encore :

si l'on devait couvrir avec de l'or, la monnaie imprimée depuis 1934, fin du gold standart, époque où l'or cotait 34$

le prix de l'or devrait etre de 3675$ pour couvrir M1 et de 7931$ pour couvrir M2



source

Stacy Blog: Show me the silver bubble!


http://maxkeiser.com/2011/05/19/stacy-blog-show-me-the-silver-bubble/

Posted on
May 19, 2011 by stacyherbert



There are some that since 2001 have doubted the bull market in precious
metals. In these past six weeks, however, everyone from former silver bulls to
those who sell freeze dried chicken sh*t for a living are out shrieking the
bears on the shriek factor. Do a google search and you will find hundreds upon
hundreds of references to Hunt brother days. Bubble. Hunt Brothers. Suckers.
Bubble. 1980. Bubble. Lose money. Bubble.
What the heck is going on???? Is the sky falling? Should we retreat?
Well, note that during every long, steady march up of a bull market, there
are violent corrections down. And during every single one of these violent
corrections, most of the media and many of the analysts will begin shrieking
with fear or gloating with vengeance that the bull market is over. Read
this editorial by Peter Schiff dated 2006 when silver corrected by 35% in 6
weeks. As you see, people were obviously shrieking that silver was in a bubble
and now it was plummeting, popping and tumbling from I think it was $12 down to
$9. No doubt Schiff will have received loads of hate mail from people who had
‘lost’ money by selling their silver after buying ‘at the bubble high’ on his
recommendation. But without losers, there can be no winners in markets. It is
because there are so many losers during a bull market that some can win. Their
shrieks shake out even more losers, so the winners can win even more. Their loss
is your gain.
To some, the losing is worth it. I have a friend who bought silver at the
2008 ‘bubble high’ of $22. Yes, again, in 2008, the silver bubble burst! This
friend sold at $9 where silver once again fell. He ‘lost’ money by being
‘suckered’ into a bubble, he believed. Of course, $9 was obviously a support
level for the next ride up on the bull. He doesn’t regret his losses as he says
he just couldn’t deal with the emotional swings of the bull market ride.
Anyway, once again, for the third time in three years, the silver ‘bubble’
has burst. The fall is not as great as the 60% fall of 2008, but there are far
more precious metals website owners and analysts mocking and ridiculing the
‘losers’ who bought at the top of the bubble. Some are suggesting silver is one
of the biggest, craziest bubbles in history.
CPM Group has just released their 2010 silver supply and demand data, so I’ve
gone through it to look for signs of a bubble that has collapsed. I’m not a
mathematician, so I welcome any corrections on my maths and invite any
additional observations that can be added to my own.

• CPM
  Group: Silver, Supply, Demand Grew in 2010; Trend to
  Continue
  

So if we’re in a bubble, of course, we should see the classic signs of mania.
Buyers must be stampeding to the doors to buy before they ‘miss out,’ even while
silver inventories are bursting at the seams as all the crazies load up at mania
highs. So let’s look for signs of that . . . you’ll find me in
italics.
=====
CPM: The value of investor
silver holdings was estimated at $14.7 billion at the end of 2010, the highest
level on a nominal basis since 1988, with the record at $42.2
billion – nominally – in 1980. The value of silver holdings is
the product of the price of silver and the cumulative silver bullion
inventories.
Stacy – So on a nominal basis, the last time investor
silver holdings were valued at $14.7 billion – nominally – was already 7 years
into a 20 year bear market? On an inflation adjusted basis to 1988 dollars, the
nominal value of last year’s $14.7 billion of investor silver holdings out to be
$72.7 billion.
And at the peak of the last silver bull market – a time to which many are
now comparing the current silver market – when it entered true parabolic stage,
the total nominal value of investor holdings were $42.2
billion. $42,200,000,000
1980 dollars = 272,467,430,863.75 dollars in 2010. So on an inflation
adjusted basis the size of the holdings in 1980 were roughly about 19 times
bigger at a time when the global population was 50% smaller (1980 global
population – 4.4 billion). And in 1980, half of that 4.4 billion global
population was behind the iron curtain and China was a micro economy of peasants
far removed from the global economy.
So, essentially, this current ‘biggest bubble in history’ is actually at
least 19 times smaller than the ‘Hunt brothers bubble’ and with 2.3 billion more
potential investors on earth? Either many millions of ounces more of silver have
to be owned by investors or the prices have to go much, much higher to get
anywhere near the 1980 levels to which so many are comparing today.
Let’s return to the nominal numbers that CPM presents:
2010 nominal value silver holdings = $14.7 billion. 1980 nominal value of
silver holdings = $42.2 billion
SH: Now compare that to:
2010 nominal US national debt = $14 trillion. 1980
nominal US national debt = $900 billion
Stacy: In other words, compared to 1980, nominal
holdings of silver were 4 times smaller in 2010 but U.S. national debt (one
reason that people buy precious metals) was more than 14 times higher on a
nominal basis compared to 1980? And silver is in the bubble?
CPM: On a global basis,
however, the value of these [silver] assets represents 0.007% of total global
financial assets, up from 0.003% in 2004. It was 0.34% in 1980.
Stacy: You do the maths on that, I get that silver
assets represented 48 more times the percentage of total global financial assets
in 1980. Of course, we all know that debt and derivatives have exploded since
the 1980′s and that will account for the collapse in silver as a percentage of
total global financial assets and it is also one of the reasons that many
believe silver will go higher, but, again, a lot more silver has to be owned by
a whole lot more investors to get anywhere near the 1980 parabolic highs that
everyone keeps comparing to today.
Back to investor demand . . .
CPM: Silver bought via
exchange-traded funds continued to increase, with 122.7 million ounces added in
2010, versus 155.3 million added in 2009. [SH: So ETFs added 20% less than
the previous year during this alleged 'mania'?] Coin demand surged
in 2010, [SH: hello SLA stacking your physical!] and silver
used in coins is estimated to have reached 74.5 million ounces, the highest
level since 1967 [SH: when world population was just 3.485 billion;
currently 6.775 billion]. The relatively low cost of silver coins,
compared to gold, should keep this an attractive option for retail
investors, CPM Group said. U.S. silver eagle coin sales contributed the
most total silver used in coins, at 34.7 million ounces [SH: just to be on
population parity, we'd need to see 50 million ounces], a record high. This
was 46.5% of total silver used in coins in 2010.
SH: Please note that CPM emphasizes the low cost of
silver coins. This is a crucial element to the silver liberation army concept. A
one ounce silver coin costs fewers dollars to acquire than it does to buy a tank
of gasoline and should not bankrupt anyone in the U.S. where average monthly
salaries are over $2000.
So annual net purchases by investors totaled 142 million ounces in 2010.
We are told, however, that more ounces were more bought in 1968
(when the global population was nearly half of current world population – global
3.6 billion; and the US population was 50% smaller – US – 200 million), 1980
(world population 4.4 billion) and 1983 (world population 4.7 billion; US – 233
million). So, population adjusted, 2010 investor demand for silver was at about
half where it was at previous record highs. Would the financial media marvel if
the US added as many monthly nominal jobs as we did in 1968?
Back to looking for signs of bubbles . . .
CPM: Total newly refined
silver supply rose 4.3% in 2010, to 986.8 million ounces,
driven by secondary supply sources.
CPM: Secondary silver
supplies now account for one-third of total supplies, up from 26% in 2001.
Stacy: Um, secondary supply is up from 26% at the
beginning of the bull market to just 30% in 2010? So where is all the supply
from granny’s silverware that we keep hearing about? Where is the stampede? Most
of that secondary supply is coming from recycling from electronics, not because
of higher prices but because of regulations on recycling. In a bubble we should
see massive oversupply. Think of the millions of new homes that were coming onto
the market during the housing bubble? It got up to something like 11 months
supply at one point.
Finally, outside of investor demand for silver, is the industrial demand:

CPM: Fabrication demand for
silver rose 5% in 2010, to 844.8 million ounces, the first gain
since 2007, but the demand is still under levels seen in the early 2000s. If the
global economy continues to grow, CPM Group forecasts fabrication demand up 5.5%
from 2010, to 890.9 million ounces.
Solar panel usage of silver has skyrocketed, with an estimated 64 million
ounces used in 2010 up from 28.5 million ounces in 2009, and demand is likely to
grow as there is an increased emphasis on “green energy.” It represented the
biggest increase in fabrication demand, and in 2011 is expected to rise 15.2%,
to 73.7 million ounces, but remains vulnerable to government incentives.
[SH: also note that CPM notes that while consumer electronics are recycled
every 3 years, silver in solar panels are generally locked up for 30 - 40
years].
Silver use in electronics reached a record 220.4 million ounces in 2010, up
5% from 2009, and is forecast by CPM Group to rise by 5.6% in 2011 to 232.7
million ounces. The growth comes from an increase in goods manufactured as
producers are already thrifty in their precious metals use. The demand rise is
most marked in developing countries, but the growth is universal, CPM Group
said.
Jewelry and silverware use rose 0.1% over 2009, to 276.8 million ounces, and
accounted for 32.8% of silver demand, the largest source of fabrication demand.
This category is expected to rise by 5.9% in 2011, to 293.0 million ounces.
Medical use for silver has picked up in 2010, for its use as a biocide. It
rose 7.7% versus 2009, to 5.6 million ounces and is projected to increase.
Stacy: Industrial fabrication far outweighs investor
demand. Surely if we were in a bubble mania, these numbers would be much closer
as 6.7 billion were gripped by a frenzy of irrational exuberance?
Anyway, of course, with all numbers one can make of them what you want.
Personally, I’m not buying the sky is falling argument. And, as such, I’m
hoping for some more losers out there.

après ce fastueux rallye d'été qui a amené l'or jeudi dernier, au delà des 1900 $, on entend à nouveau et pour la néme fois " ça y est, l'or a atteint son sommet et la bulle va exploser"


Tout ce qui a été dit dans cette file reste vrai, les fondamentaux de l'or ( et de l'argent ) sont toujours aussi excellents, voir de plus en plus, car l'augmentation du cours de l'or est une donnée qui incite de plus en plus d'acheteurs à rentrer

je sais, c'est étrange, mais c'est comme ça que fonctionne un vrai marché haussier de l'or : plus c'est cher, et plus on on veut

et les acheteurs verront désormais comme une aubaine, un prix qu'ils jugeaient trop cher hier

au jourd'hui, c'st 1900 $ qui est "trop cher", et l'aubaine est un peu plus bas

demain, l'aubaine sera à 1900 $ et ainsi de suite, jusquà la target finale, bien au dessus de ce cours.

quoi qu'il en soit, Dan de truthingold refait le point sur les arguments des partisans de la bulle de l'or, pour mieux les contrer, c'est excellent et en 2 parties, ici :
http://truthingold.blogspot.com/2011/08/idea-that-gold-is-in-bubble-is-idiotic.html

http://truthingold.blogspot.com/2011/08/more-on-gold-bubble-and-why-it-isnt.html

Citation :

I ask you to consider that the marquee indicator of an investment
product in the peak frenzy of a bubble is the endless aggressive
promotion to seduce YOU into buying THEIR investment - not THEM seducing YOU to sell them your's.

ça c'est certain, Sandro...

d'ailleurs rue 89 vient de sortir un topo sur la publicité agressive que font ces nouvelles sociétés achat d' or auprès des particuliers, pour les délester à très bon compte

tant que ces boites proliférent, c'est tout bon pour le marché haussier, et pas pour ceux qui se laissent séduire par ces vautours



http://www.rue89.com/mouloud-akkouche/2011/08/30/la-chasse-a-lor-des-pauvres-est-ouverte-219029

mieux encore, si l'on peut dire , différents commentaires parus sans la presse, de personnalités en vue aux usa

exhortent la fed et les autorités de régulation à prendre des mesures drastiques contre l'or, l'ennemi juré des banquiers centraux occidentaux, qu'il faut assassiner une bonne foi pour toutes ...

et y'en a qui viennent encore nous dire que l'or c'est une bulle ?

LOL

Non,c'est toujours et plus que jamais une guerre, de plus en plus désespérée contre l'or



**********



http://www.gata.org/node/10363



Wall Street Journal and New York Times commentaries urge: Murder gold


Submitted by cpowell on Wed, 2011-08-31 16:27. Section: Daily Dispatches
12:30p ET Wednesday, August 31, 2011

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

Commentaries in The Wall Street Journal today and The New York Times yesterday plainly confessed the emnity of government and financial institutions generally toward gold.

The commentary in The Wall Street Journal, written by David Malpass, a Treasury Department official during the Reagan administration, quotes former Federal Reserve Chairman Paul Volcker as having repeatedly declared gold to be "the enemy," something GATA Chairman Bill Murphy has cited about Volcker from time to time in his daily "Midas" column at LeMetropoleCafe.com. Malpass writes that "sound monetary policy will produce lower gold prices," which are desirable because "piling trillions into foreign countries, gold, and idle Treasury bonds sucks capital away from growth. The Fed should put an end to it."

At least Malpass blames the Fed for creating the huge distortions in the world economy.

The commentary in The New York Times, written by the newspaper's "DealBook" columnist Steven M. Davidoff, proposes that the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission force commodity exchanges to raise margin requirements for gold trading to quash "speculation" in the monetary metal, and even "to limit the gold acquired individually and by the ETFs. All of these measures would have to be coordinated and put into effect on a global basis."

Coordinated and put into effect on a global basis? As in a "conspiracy" of central bankers?

Mr. Davidoff, it's already in operation.

So much for free markets.

Of course free markets died long ago at the hands of the U.S. government. (See http://www.gata.org/node/6242.) But why does GATA face such resistance in pointing this out in regard to manipulation of the gold market particularly? Could it be any less obvious than the sun's rising in the east?

The Wall Street Journal and New York Times commentaries are appended.

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.



* * *

Beyond the Gold and Bond Bubbles

Shouldn't the Fed Try to Improve Incentives to Invest in Growing Businesses?

By David Malpass
The Wall Street Journal
Wednesday, August 31, 2011



http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424053111904875404576532921735664998.html



Treasury bond yields have been at near-record lows and gold prices at record highs, attracting millions of investors into idle assets through coins, exchange-traded funds, and even warehousing facilities. This reflects fear about inflation and the stability of the financial system and, for some, the coming breakdown of society under the weight of $3.6 trillion in annual Washington spending and transfer payments.

Last week's letup in the gold and bond-buying bubbles was good news. It meant less fear that the financial system will collapse. The Federal Reserve and the Obama administration should pile on by championing sound money and fiscal restraint as a way to rechannel capital into growth.

Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke's Jackson Hole speech last Friday, in which he did not announce still more quantitative easing, was a welcome step back from the frenetic central-bank activism that has been adding uncertainty to an already weak economy. The Fed has bought over $2 trillion of bonds since 2008 and forced interest rates to near zero, which hasn't helped small businesses or created jobs.

Mr. Bernanke should directly confront the fear index imbedded in high gold prices and low bond yields. Gold at more than $1,800 per ounce is a loud public statement of no confidence in our central bank. It means people would rather buy gold than hire workers or start businesses -- that they don't trust the central bank to maintain the value of their money.



Former Fed Chairman Paul Volcker thought of high gold prices as his enemy and repeatedly said so as a way to build confidence in the central bank. In the 1970s, high gold prices reflected Fed incompetence that had produced inflation, stagnation and malaise. Jimmy Carter named Mr. Volcker to replace G. William Miller as Fed chairman in 1979, a rare moment of Washington accountability. Gold then fell in the 1980s and '90s in what was called affectionately "The Great Moderation." Inflation and oil prices followed gold prices down, tax rates were cut, and jobs became plentiful. Foreign capital beat a path to America's door, the mirror image of the exodus of growth capital the Fed's weak dollar is fueling.

Equally harmful in our current environment, low bond yields (negative yields in some cases) signal fear of deflation and a collapse in the financial system. Investing on these fears hurts growth -- investors buy billions in gold to protect from inflation and billions in government bonds to protect from deflation. It's like a farmer plagued by both floods and droughts and having to buy insurance against both extremes.

It's not an abstract fear. The Fed caused high inflation in the 1970s and participated in a weak-dollar policy in the 2000s that made gold a vital investment for capital preservation. And the Fed has repeatedly warned of a Japan-style deflation over the last decade, itself buying bonds in huge quantities and now forcing more capital into dead-end government bonds by assuring near-zero interest rates into 2013.

Reinforcing investor fears, the Fed has caused extraordinarily wide and harmful swings in interest rates, the value of the dollar, gasoline prices, and inflation in recent decades. This makes precautionary investments like gold, bonds, and foreign diversification more profitable than investing the old fashioned way in small, growing businesses.

The result: Growth has stagnated. With gold prices flying through the roof, interest rates at near-zero and 10-year bond yields at only 2%, too much capital has been diverted into protecting investors from monetary-policy extremes.

The Fed takes the view that gold prices have limited meaning and that low bond yields are desirable as stimulus, not a market-based indicator of slow growth and high risks to the financial system. This leaves the financial world in suspense over whether the Fed will buy back more of the national debt or even new types of assets as some are urging. The uncertainty is great for the Fed-watching community and Wall Street, which profits by buying bonds in advance of Fed purchases. But the suspense hurts growth and jobs.

To break this cycle, the Fed needs to rebuild a monetary system in which the dollar is a strong and stable store of value and capital is allocated based on interest rates and market forces rather than the rationing of regulatory capital. Gold prices would be lower and bond yields higher in anticipation of a growing economy and a safer financial system.

Unless the Fed breaks the cycle, many of the arguments for buying gold and bonds still pertain. The Fed owes $2.8 trillion in liabilities, undercutting confidence in the dollar and the financial system. It is willing to promise zero interest rates for years but not willing to criticize the declining value of the dollar, one of the most important metrics of central banking.

These missteps aren't fatal. The Fed's plump balance sheet can be pared back when growth starts. Last week's improvement in the gold/bond fear index provides an opportunity for the Fed and the administration to talk up the economy and put a bullish top on the price of gold.

Instead of locking in 2013 interest rates, as it has done, the Fed should reassure markets that sound monetary policy will produce lower gold prices and higher bond yields over time, an important step in restarting growth. The status quo -- piling trillions into foreign countries, gold, and idle Treasury bonds -- sucks capital away from growth. The Fed should put an end to it.



********************



Mr. Malpass, a deputy assistant treasury secretary in the Reagan administration, is president of Encima Global LLC.

* * *

How to Deflate a Gold Bubble (That Might Not Even Exist)

By Steven M. Davidoff
The New York Times
Tuesday, August 30, 2011



http://dealbook.nytimes.com/2011/08/30/how-to-deflate-a-gold-bubble-that-might-not-even-exist/



Gold is caught in a frenzy.

The price of gold reached a record high of $1,917.90 an ounce last week, not adjusted for inflation, and then promptly plummeted by about $120 an ounce. The volatile trading is again spurring claims that gold is in a bubble, one that will pop badly.

As with past booms in housing prices and Internet stocks, the four-year surge in gold prices raises the same fundamental questions for market regulators. How should they react? Should they react at all? How do they even know if a bubble exists?

It is clear that speculation has been driving gold’s rise. People are buying gold as either a hedge against inflation or economic calamity or solely because they think the price will rise. As evidence of this speculation, the World Gold Council reports that demand for gold bullion bars more than doubled from 2009, to about 850 metric tons a year. This is largely gold that is bought and sits there as people wait for price increases. Indeed, demand for gold in industry and for jewelry has actually declined by 18 percent from 2004, to about 2,500 metric tons a year, according to the World Gold Council.

This speculation is aided by the financial revolution. Previously, gold could be bought by retail investors only through dealers and street shops. Now anyone can go on the Internet, click and buy gold in the market through exchange traded funds. These funds will buy gold on the investor's behalf, and now hold about 2,250 metric tons of gold -- or nearly a year's worth of output.

Speculation alone doesn’t necessarily mean that gold is in a bubble. Gold is historically viewed as a protection against inflation and tumultuous economic times. It is a way to diversify a portfolio and hedge these risks. The price rise can be explained by people's rational betting that these phenomena will occur. This is particularly true in light of the heightened risks to the economy because of events in Europe and the still-lingering effects from the financial crisis in the United States.

But like paper money, gold is worth only what people believe it is worth, and because of this, it is sometimes referred to as the barbarous relic. You can't eat gold. Its industrial uses are limited. If someone else doesn't assign the same value to gold that you do, you are out of luck. For those who predict it will be valuable if society completely collapses, guns and canned goods might come in handier.

Gold's relative uselessness has helped spur talk of a bubble. The problem for regulators is whether this speculation is natural, prudent hedging or people irrationally piling ever more into a bubbly asset.

After all, Alan Greenspan, the former Federal Reserve chairman, speculated that the stock market might be "irrationally exuberant" in 1996, well before the actual bubble took hold. As with the Internet bubble, we will know if a bubble truly existed only if and when gold falls.

In his book "Irrational Exuberance," Robert J. Shiller of Yale University tried to set forth a test for spotting bubbles. Bubbles are created when people buy in to the next great thing. They accept that this is a game-changing asset -- like housing or the Internet -- that cannot fail. As more people buy the asset, the speculation and frenzy increase.

According to Professor Shiller, a crucial driver of a bubble in today's modern age is the Internet and media.

If you watch cable television, it would certainly appear that gold is in a bubble. Commercials abound for buying gold. Commentators on CNBC talk about gold hitting $2,400 an ounce, which would be a genuine record (the previous high of $850 in 1980 would be about $2,300 today, adjusted for inflation). In fairness, other CNBC commentators have said that this is foolish and that gold prices are too high. Still, the marketing of gold to the masses is an ominous sign.

Even after the downturn in prices last week, it is not clear if gold has hit its peak. Is gold still being driven by fundamentals or is it a speculators' delight?

Because of this uncertainty, regulators have acted as hesitantly as they did in the case of the Internet and housing bubbles. The Chicago Mercantile Exchange recently raised margin requirements for gold, the amount of money you can borrow to buy gold. The Singapore exchange also raised margin requirements last week. Other exchanges in other countries have not acted similarly, leading to differences that will drive gold trading to those markets.

The Commodity Futures Trading Commission, the primary regulator of the gold market in the United States, does not appear to want to act. The agency is following form, as it also refused to act forcefully when oil jumped to more than $145 a barrel in 2008. It seems hesitant to quash speculation. The commodities regulator, though, could force American exchanges to further raise margin requirements, reducing leverage and the ability of investors to buy more gold. The agency would also have to act to limit the gold acquired individually and by the ETFs. All of these measures would have to be coordinated and put into effect on a global basis.

Those would also be very aggressive acts to attack a problem that some say doesn’t even exist. This analysis could be applied to other commodities that have had huge run-ups in past years, including oil, food, and other metals like silver.

In other words, not only is it hard to spot a bubble, but the measures to fight it, like restrictions on leverage and holdings, are hard and controversial to put into effect. Limiting the type of media barrages we see is also impossible in a free society.

Yet if regulators are going to stop the next bubble, they will need to act aggressively. Of course, they shouldn't act in every circumstance, but when we see volatility and speculation as is the case of gold, acting to curb these forces through limiting leverage in cooperation with international regulators would be a prudent course. This would ensure that if a crash does come, it does not have aftereffects on banks and other institutions. Even if the Commodity Futures Trading Commission is hesitant to take such steps, it could, as an initial foray, take to the media to try to "talk down" the speculation.

Otherwise, we're left hoping, without much basis, that people have learned that this time will not be different, something not much in evidence in the case of gold.

-----

Steven M. Davidoff, writing as The Deal Professor, is a commentator for DealBook on the world of mergers and acquisitions.

"L'OR EST UNE BULLE" / Marc Touati

et lui un boulet...

Citation :

MARC TOUATI: "L'OR EST UNE BULLE"


du 29 août au 4 septembre 2011
:
Touati me fait sourire avec son discours "l'or est une bulle"... C'est
connu, les patrons de la banque centrale de Russie et de Chine sont des
crétins finis, ils achètent de l'or par milliards. Mais puisque Touati
dit que l'or est une bulle... La Banque de Chine achète donc de la
bulle. A croire Touati (ex Natixis), la Chine ferait tout aussi bien
d'acheter une machine à faire des bulles de savon... Et la dette des US,
c'est, bien sûr, une autre jolie bulle. Ce que les gens ne savent pas,
c'est que les 14.000 milliards de dette des Etats-Unis ne comprennent
pas celles de chaque Etat (!!!), et il y en a une cinquantaine, ni
celles des municipalités, ni des entreprises, ni des ménages, ni des
étudiants, etc. Si vous additionnez le tout, alors vous vous dites que,
forcément, une bulle va exploser, mais pas forcément celle dont il
parle.

Vu la tendance, M. Touati risque de finir en slip ainsi que les clients
qu'il conseille... C'est incroyable à quel point les Keynesiens
s'acharnent alors que leur modèle économique a volé en éclats. Même
Olivier Delamarche a concédé que l'or était maintenant le refuge (ne
ratez pas sa dernière intervention). Mais selon Touati, achetez des
actions... De la Société Générale ou des Bons du Trésor américains? Ou
du Grec? Le 2 ans grec est à 44,025%!. Eh bien, justement, les banques
centrales allemande et finnoise exigent des bulles de savon en or, en
garantie de leurs prêts à la Grèce. Que dites vous de ça Mr Touati? En
fait, cher lecteur, lectrice, vous ne le savez pas, mais votre salle de
bains est un vrai coffre-fort... Je peux même vous dire que la
Bundesbank exige des barres fondues uniquement par Bébécadum, Roger
Gallet et surtout Chanel, le fameux "Chanel 19". Avantage: ça vous donne des coffre-forts parfumés. Bientôt, Mr Touati va conseiller de l'Emprunt Russe ou des Assignats.
Revue de Presse par Pierre Jovanovic © www.jovanovic.com 2008-2011

Source: http://www.jovanovic.com/blog.htm

le dernier topo des Soeurs Aden vaut le coup ..



en rouge, la bulle du Nasdaq

en jaune, la bulle de l'or avec son top de 1980

en vert : le trend de l'or depuis 2000



elle est où la prétendue bulle sur l'or ?







la correction actuelle, qui pourrait se prolonger plus bas n'a rien d'exceptionnel dans un marché haussier

au pire vers la moyenne mobile 65 semaines à 1450 $

http://www.kitco.com/ind/Aden/aden_oct272011.html

un petit graphique vaut mieux que de longs discours ...

excellent en effet.

Je t'ai mis une reco...

une autre façon de vérifier si l'or est en bulle spéculative ou non ,

est de regarder l'indice de la peur ( fear index ), fortement corrélé au cours de l'or

comme vous le verrez sur les derniers graphes de James Turk, cet indice est TRES loin de ses plus hauts de 1980, correspondant au top historique des cours de la période 1970-1980, avant la chute verticale du prix de l'once
alors même que la situation est pourtant bien plus inquiétante qu'en 1980 !



non seulement il n'y a pas de bulle spéculative sur l'or, mais celui ci est TRES sousévalué



http://www.goldmoney.com/gold-research/fear-index-shows-that-gold-is-undervalued.html?gmrefcode=gata

cours de l'or: Très loin d'une bulle spéculative

échelle 2 /10 sur une échelle de bulle spéculative "maniaque" , ça sonne mieux comme toujours, en anglais " 'gold mania"



Robert Mish: Front-Line Evidence That We Are Nowhere Near a Gold Bubble


Robert Mish has been a precious metals dealer for nearly 50 years and knows what gold bubble mania looks like.
We are nowhere near that stage, in his opinion.

Instead, he sees a US populace largely unappreciative of holding precious metal as a store of wealth, and engaged in a slow process of dis-hording their gold and silver to eager foreign buyers, who are more than happy to take the bullion back to their shores.

In terms of where we are on the gold mania spectrum, he sees us at a "2" out of 10.

But he foresees a very rude awakening ahead, as the populace eventually wakes up to the increasing damage that our over-debted global economy is doing to the purchasing power of world currencies. Because when the general investor finally realizes the protection the precious metals offer against currency debasement, much of the retail supply will already be out of the system, in very tight hands and largely overseas.

Moreover, when supply gets tight, there will be more challenges to obtaining physical bullion during a buying mania than there were during the last mania in 1980. There are many fewer local sources to exchange bullion these days, as much of that business is now transacted by online vendors dependent mail delivery to ship product, and they are more vulnerable to supply chain disruptions.

Be sure you're aware of how the form in which you hold your bullion will affect the price you get during a buying frenzy, when refining capacity is overwhelmed. You may find that your gold or silver sells at a hefty discount because it's not in a preferred format for trade.

On What a True Gold Mania Looks Like

The phone calls were ringing so much we could not answer them. We had to just put all our lines on hold so we could service the customers, and we wanted to service our own customers first.

We would come in to open at nine in the morning and there would already be a line out the door and down the block. Sometimes the line was mostly buyers; sometimes there were sellers. We would run out of metal. We would run out of anything. And
we would have to divide the line into two lines. We would take the sellers in first, get some product, and sort it before the buyers were let in.


And people were not very discriminating then; they were panicking. By the time it peaked in January 1980, there were people out there who did not even understand free market economics or precious metal economics; they were just buying because it was fashionable or because it was going up forever. Those are more the makings of a bubble; today most people are coming in to sell.

On Today's Typical Seller

The typical seller today is really the opposite of who they were 30, 40, 50 years ago. People used to save, either through a bank account, or keeping some coins around, putting away silver dollars when they came back from Reno or Lake Tahoe. They would be buying some interesting furniture or jewelry and then they had income in excess of their expenses. Today, so many households are stressed having expenses greater than their income or servicing a lot of debt that they are starting to sell the things, the heirlooms, that they so prized before. So we are seeing people sell their Rolex they do not want anymore or cannot afford to keep, their old jewelry, their parent’s jewelry, and belongings that they inherited. The coins they collected when they were a kid. it is sad, in a way, because what we are seeing is the dis-hoarding of a culture.


On Today's Typical Buyer

Well, in the United States, the typical buyer is perhaps someone who has taken the Crash Course and has studied what is happening to our nation and understands that they have to protect themselves from the coming inflation and social ramifications of that inflation and the debt burdened economy. Big money is buying, but for every one buyer, there has got to be five sellers here, and I am sure that is similar among my colleagues around the country, maybe even more so. Because over here we are in a wealthier area, and I still have more sellers than buyers.

A lot of it is going overseas. A lot of the coins that came to America over the decades, over the generations, either through the fact that we had the money to buy them or through immigration or through the spoils of war, it is all going back now to the home countries. Especially if it is a home country, where their economies are rising and the people are saving rather than spending.

Just last night we had two visitors from China, colleagues of mine in Shanghai, they flew here just to see me, and they flew back the next morning. They cannot get enough coins in China; they are buying everything back that came here when the people in China could not buy their own coins. Next weekend I have more visitors coming. Coin shows, which have been all over America, are now appearing all over the world. There are now major coin shows in gathering marts in Singapore, Tokyo, Beijing, Hong Kong. It used to be once a year; now it is three, four times a year. Big auctions that used to be held in the United States are now organizing in Hong Kong and other countries.

So we are seeing a movement back in the opposite direction, and it is sad [for the US market]

On the Importance of Physical Form

Chris Martenson: So you mentioned refinery problems. What is a refinery problem?

Robert Mish: A refinery problem is where a dealer buys the scrap gold and the scrap silver and his refiner cannot get it processed for several weeks or months. And that squeezes his cash flow so he has to pay less and less to the public.

Chris Martenson: So if I walk in with a bag of junk silver, it is 90% silver, it has always been trading well. But if we are in a real heyday, your refiner says, "I am backed up 11 weeks. I can take that in 11 weeks." Meanwhile, prices are gyrating. You are going to look at me and say what?

Robert Mish: I am going to say, "Mr. Martenson, I wish you had come in here with pure tradable silver or something that is exchange-ready."

The marketplace determines the choice for medium of exchange. If you have silver in any other form, if it is in odd form such as coins, broken spoons, and knives, or whatever, and I have to have it refined in order to get it back in a marketable form, it is going to suffer a discount. And that discount is going to be greater the longer it takes to turn that around.

Chris Martenson: So anything that has to cycle through a refinery has that refinery risk. What was the discount that got applied at its most maximum in the 1980s?

Robert Mish: In the 1980s, when we were about eight weeks backlogged and not everyone even had a refiner relationship and [thus] had to rely on other dealers who did, it got to about a 30% discount for having the wrong form of silver versus the right form.

http://www.chrismartenson.com/blog/robert-mish-front-line-evidence-nowhere-near-gold-bubble/72283

Belle argumentation à laquelle je souscris sans réserve sauf sur les pièces à 900/1000 emes
qui, en cas de pénuries ne seraient absolument pas pénalisées, notamment parce que c'est le plus haut titrage du vieux continent contrairement aux USA habitués à du 999

l'invité vedette d'une émission CNBC spécialisée sur les matières premières, un banquier de RBS, déclare ( une fois de plus ) que le cours de l'or est en bulle spéculative ...

à quoi un autre des invités, Juerg Kiener, Managing Director & CIO de Swiss Asia Capital, rétorque :



L'or est de fait, une monnaie tangible . Si vous croyez que l'or est une monnaie tangible, auriez-vous plutôt votre argent dans votre poche, ou le donneriez vous à un usurier? ( et toc pour le gars de chez RBS) Détenir physiquement et entre vos mains, cet or, est la clef

je n'ai jamais vu une bulle dans laquelle l'allocation des investisseurs est sous les 1%





les pauvres ...ils avaient omis de vérifier les cv de tous leurs invités avant le débat





source

April 24, 2013, 10:07 A.M. ET
Gold Is No Bubble Asset: Commerzbank

http://blogs.barrons.com/focusonfunds/2013/04/24/gold-is-no-bubble-asset-commerzbank/

nouvelle étude de Michael Kosares avec de nombreux graphes et notamment celui ci, qui en dit long ! 

ratio or /masse monétaire
[th][/th]

Chart courtesy of Macrotrend.net

http://www.usagold.com/publications/octreview2013.html