furures or métal/ tocom ( japon) , les gros shorts battent en retraite !

il ne s'agit plus seulement de GS.... regardez bien ce graphique concocté par Adrian Douglas

on arrive à un record HISTORIQUE de points bas des net shorts positions gold ...pour la plus part de des gros là..
ya que STDJ qui traine encore ( un peu ) ... à couvrir plus radicalement

alors que sur le comex .. c'est tout à fait différent .. nos 4 plus gros ne couvrent pas..

on commence à percevoir ce que j'appélerais un démantélement dans les troupes .. les gros du comex sont de plus en plus isolés ... et comme on sait qui c'est .. à présent ..



ps: on notera aussi, qu'aucun producteur ne figure dans la liste des plus gros shorteurs tocom ..ceci pour tordre le cou..à la fable des hedgeurs producteurs, gros shorteurs .. je l'ai dit et depuis longtemps: les shorts commerciaux ne sont pas des producteurs hedgeurs.. mais des bullions banques...

www.lemetropolecafe.com

Bill,
In the September 11 session on the TOCOM Goldman Sachs INCREASED their short position by 407 contracts and bought 1 long contract to bring their long position to 735 contracts and their net short position to 3,441 contracts.
Here is an update on the position history of the largest shorts on TOCOM

graph des NET SHORT positions gold des 5 plus gros commerciaux sur le tocom

vous remarquerez également

- que depuis juin 2008, ces shorteurs ont COUVERT leurs positions. ( non seulement ils n'ont pas shorté, sur cette période, mais ont couvert ). et n'ont donc pas participé au raid baissier de juillet aout, organisé par les 3 bques us sur le comex ..

- que l'un des plus gros shorteurs, Mitsubishi ( courbe rose, est déjà passé en net LONGUE positions
du jamais vu !!

- amah tout ces "braves gens" auront intégralement couvert.. d'ici la fameuse date du 25-11 -2008 ..

à la cloture d'hier soir, Goldman Sachs n'a plus que 627 net shorts positions sur les Futures Or du Tocom



les autres gros continuent à couvrir et on atteint un point bas de 17305 contrats pour leur net short position cumulée ( y compris celle de GS)

si ça vous parait pas assez éloquent...

ça n'est probablement plus une question de semaines de mois ou d'années, mais de jours !!


pour mémo


www.lemetropolecafe.com



D-Day has arrived! GS is only 627 contracts net short on TOCOM. We must be very close to a gold price explosion. They will probably want to get on the long side if they can but they have eliminated their exposure at least on the TOCOM. It is probably a matter of days, not weeks, months or years.
Cheers
Adrian
Bill,
ANOTHER NEW RECORD LOW GOLD SHORT POSITION IS ACHIEVED BY GOLDMAN SACHS ON TOCOM
In the September 24 session on the TOCOM Goldman Sachs COVERED 405 short contracts and bought 704 long contracts to bring their long position to 1,889 contracts and their net short position to 627 contracts. YES, THAT IS SIX HUNDRED AND TWENTY SEVEN CONTRACTS NET SHORT! This is the lowest net short position that Goldman Sachs has ever held in the 33 months that I have been keeping data.
Make no mistake about it THIS IS IT. We are within days of gold exploding. It is a time to forget about trading to make a few bucks and instead be properly positioned for lift off.

graphe des NETS shorts positions gs tocom en rouge
vs graphe du spot gold en jaune

Bill,
ANOTHER NEW RECORD LOW GOLD NET SHORT POSITION IS ACHIEVED BY
GOLDMAN SACHS ON TOCOM

In the September 26 session on the TOCOM Goldman Sachs COVERED 3 short
contracts and bought 411 long contracts to bring their long position to 2,030
contracts and their net short position to 480 contracts. This is the lowest net
short position that Goldman Sachs has ever held in the 33 months that I have
been keeping data. I am always wary of the Cartel as to whether they have
another trick up their sleeve but with the financial system close to the abyss I
am confident we are seeing the rats scurrying to save themselves instead of
continuing the old charade. This is the same conclusion we can draw from the end
of year tally on the WAG2. The CB’s have suddenly realized that the game is up
and it is pointless throwing gold into a market that is ready to eat your hand
off. The market will soon not be intimidated at all by gold sales, a far cry
from the times we have lived through, and soon CB’s will begin to buy gold (if
they can find any!). We are about to cross the Rubicon.
Cheers
Adrian[/b]

voila, c'est fait !
GS est passé en net long sur les Futures Or du Tocom depuis la cloture d' hier , 29 octobre!
en avance de presque 2 mois sur notre calendrier du 25 novembre... vachement préssés, les gars

rappelons que sa monstrueuse ex short position lui a couté 185 millions de $

www.lemetropolecafe.com



GOLDMAN SACHS GOES NET LONG GOLD ON TOCOM
In the September 29 session on the TOCOM Goldman Sachs COVERED 13 short contracts and bought 495 long contracts to bring their long position to 2,525 contracts AND AS A RESULT MAKING THEM NET LONG 28 CONTRACTS!!! The largest net short position they held was 52,000 contracts in March of 2006.
Below it is shown graphically. The declining net short position has been going on for 30 months and I have predicted for some time that GS would eventually be net long just before the gold price explodes. Well here we are! John Reade of UBS poked fun at me for this analysis saying that GATA doesn’t know what an arbitrage position is. Well, Mr. Reade I do know, and this sure as hell isn’t one! This chart documents perfectly the demise of the gold Cartel. It should be noted that in July Goldman Sachs advised its clients to sell gold as they said gold was going to $740/oz. Their price prediction turned out to be accurate, however, they did not sell gold from their own account during that time; they covered their shorts with the aid of charitable donations from the clients’ who followed their advice!
Here is the estimated liquidated value of the GS TOCOM gold position. I no longer have to extrapolate this as their net short position has now been eliminated. GS has lost approximately 185 MM$ on their TOCOM position since I started tracking the data in January 2006. One has to wonder why a company as smart as GS would tolerate being in an increasingly losing position for so long. I think we know the answer. The suppression of the gold price facilitated orders of magnitude larger profits to be made in other markets.

*************

nous avons donc désormais 2 des 5 plus gros commerciaux gold tocom.. qui sont passé NET longs.. GS et Mitsubishi..

les autres, CONTINUANT à couvrir



Now that Goldman Sachs has finally come on to the GATA side of the market we can expect a gold price explosion.
For a long time many in our camp wondered if the Cartel was so smart they could continue their manipulation for ever. We have seen in the last few weeks that some of the key players have stepped on their own land mines. The laws of economics can be frustrated but not repealed.
Cheers
Adrian

de nouveaux plus bas des nets shorts positions pour nos 5 plus gros commerciaux gold / tocom

GS et Mitsubsihi sont NET longs

www.lemetropolecafe.com


Bill,
In the October 22 session on the TOCOM Goldman Sachs COVERED 23 short contracts and BOUGHT 703 long contracts which brings their long position to 2,971 contracts and makes them now NET LONG 543 contracts. This is the LARGEST long position they have held in 30 months. In 30 months they have been net short every day except for two days. The only other day they were net long was on 9/29/08 and was only 28 contracts net long.
The large players on the TOCOM have been gradually reducing their net short position toward zero for over 2 years. Considering the COMEX has recently hammered the price down from $1000 to $720 it is astonishing that the traditional TOCOM large shorts passed up such a wonderful opportunity and instead diligently continued getting out of their shorts.
Even as the price fell we have seen no change of heart and we have not seen them rapidly increase their short position. Au contraire Goldman Sachs just went net LONG for only the second time in 30 months! The big TOCOM Japanese dealers (can't really call them big shorts anymore because they are not!) are very experienced and have been in the gold trade for many years. I think the only logical conclusion is that the short term gain of $275 drop on the downside in a large short position does not compensate for the risk of a being trapped by a much bigger upside move.
I think the significance of this can not be underestimated.
Cheers
Adrian Douglas

*****************



In the October 22 session on the TOCOM Goldman Sachs COVERED 23 short contracts and BOUGHT 703 long contracts which brings their long position to 2,971 contracts and makes them now NET LONG 543 contracts. This is the LARGEST long position they have held in 30 months. In 30 months they have been net short every day except for two days. The only other day they were net long was on 9/29/08 and was only 28 contracts net long.
The large players on the TOCOM have been gradually reducing their net short position toward zero for over 2 years. Considering the COMEX has recently hammered the price down from $1000 to $720 it is astonishing that the traditional TOCOM large shorts passed up such a wonderful opportunity and instead diligently continued getting out of their shorts.
Even as the price fell we have seen no change of heart and we have not seen them rapidly increase their short position. Au contraire Goldman Sachs just went net LONG for only the second time in 30 months! The big TOCOM Japanese dealers (can't really call them big shorts anymore because they are not!) are very experienced and have been in the gold trade for many years. I think the only logical conclusion is that the short term gain of $275 drop on the downside in a large short position does not compensate for the risk of a being trapped by a much bigger upside move.
I think the significance of this can not be underestimated.
Cheers
Adrian...
Bill,
Here is a chart of the large traders’ positions on the TOCOM who have been traditionally short. You can see the trend that they are all trying to be net long!
Cheers,
Adrian Douglas

une autre façon de voir les choses :
cette fois ci on additionne les net shorts positions des plus gros commerciaux du tocom :

-Mitsui, Mitsubishi, Sumitomo, Goldman Sachs, and STDJ

-de janvier 2006 à hier soir




on voit tb comment ils ont profité du raid baissier d'aout pour couvrir un max de positions short.... au lieu de faire comme leurs petits copains us.. JPM entre autre

source: Adrian Douglas www.lemetropolecafe.com

It smells good....

www.lemetropolecafe.com


les 7 gros commerciaux * ont réduit leurs shorts positions gold et silver, au plus bas depuis fév 2006

9764 contrats en net short gold
253 contrats net long silver

TOCOM (Japanese Commodities Market)
Ladies and Gentlemen:
On December 18th the seven once big gold shorts reduced their net short position by an even 300 contracts to 1,164 contracts. STDJ went the other way and increased their net short position by 255 contracts to 8,600 contracts. The total open interest for all TOCOM gold members combined also hit a new low going back to February 2006, when my records begin.
http://www.tocom.or.jp/souba/gold/torikumi.html
In silver the same seven members reduced their net long position by 31 contracts leaving them net long 253.50 contracts (60kg deliverable equivalent).
http://www.tocom.or.jp/souba/silver/torikumi.html
Have a good weekend,
Scott

Goldman Sachs, net long gold, 842 contrats
plus haut historique de cette position net long, et surtout .. ils ont acheté ( couvert short position )1.3 T en une seule séance , celle du 18 décembre..

les signaux bull s'accumulent ..


GOLDMAN SACHS MAKES MASSIVE COVERING OF GOLD SHORTS - GOES NET LONG!

Bill,
In the December 18 session on the TOCOM Goldman Sachs COVERED an absolutely gob-smacking 1,307 gold short contracts which reduces their short position to just 495 contracts and leaves their long position unchanged at 1,337 contracts and makes them NET LONG – REPEAT, NET LONG 842 contracts. This is an absolutely stunning development! This is the largest net long position they have held ever since I have been tracking the TOCOM data which is almost 3 years. Considering Goldman’s role in the Cartel and links to the Treasury this is of earth shattering significance. It should also be noted that for ANY trader to be buying 1.3 tonnes of gold in a single day it deserves attention, when it is Goldman Sachs it has special significance.
There are more and more signs that the gold market is about to make a very big upwards move.
Cheers
Adrian


*
identité des 7 gros tocom :

Sumitomo Corporation

Mitsubishi Corporation Futures Ltd.

Stojitz Corporation

Marubeni Corporation

Mitsubishi Corporation

Goldman Sachs (Japan) Ltd.

Mitsui & Co., Ltd. auquels vient se rajouter, un 8eme, entré en 2007, STDJ

Futures Or : tocom au 20 déc 2008

sans STDJ, dernier arrivant sur le tocom ( seulement en 2007 ! ) les 7 plus gros ont une nette short position de seulement 129 contrats !

alors qu'ils détenaient une net short position de 226.000 contrats, le 9 fév 2006

c'est donc STDJ à lui seul qui la maintient encore vers les 9000 avec sa nette short position de 8510 contrats
Sumitomo ( seulement 1669 net short ) et Mitsui ( seulement 858 net short )ayant considérablement réduit leurs short positions depuis le dernier graph d'Adrian Douglas, en octobre dernier


Futures Argent : tocom au 20 déc 2008

nel long position des 7 plus gros :183.50

Scott

**************
update Adrian Douglas, sur GS position passée en net long

on passe de 52.000 contrats en net short au plus haut de mai 2006 ( 52 T) à 842 contrats en net long, au 19 déc 2008 ... en 1.5 ans à peine.. soit une perte estimée par Adrian à 180 millions de $

Bill,
I have updated the chart of the Goldman Sachs short position. This position peaked at 52,000 contracts net short in May of 2006 (52 tonnes of gold). The trend has been declining ever since such that today their net short has become a NET LONG position of 842 contracts (0.84 tonnes). This is their largest net long position they have held since I have been keeping track of their positions which is almost 3 years. Goldman Sachs has only been net long on 6 days out of 722 trading days! The way that this position has been steadily reduced is indicative of Goldman Sachs knowing that the profitable days of being net short in gold are over and that the only game in town is to be net long. I estimate this TOCOM account has so far lost GS $180 Million.


***********

update Adrian Douglas..qui rappelle les 1eres défections du cartel .. Rotschield et Aig en 2004

Goldman is not alone in reducing its net short position. The traditional TOCOM large shorts have all reduced their net short position:

As can be seen the largest traditional shorts on the TOCOM saw it as a real emergency to cover shorts since the credit crisis cranked into high gear in July 2008.
The major traditional gold shorts leaving the short side of the gold market makes Rothschild’s decision to quit the London Gold Fix in 2004 rather prescient. They had been a member of the London Gold Fix since 1919 but in 2004 decided they wanted no further part of it. The Rothschild’s are probably the smartest and most well informed of all the investment houses and always keep a low profile. Interestingly AIG also resigned form the London Fix in 2004 but unfortunately for them they didn’t leave the derivatives market also!
The common theme is that many important players who have made millions in being either suppliers of gold to the market or playing the short side have got out of the market or reduced shorts, or have become net long. This is NOT a coincidence. When such substantial investment houses have been on the gold supply or short side for decades and then switch sides it is not based on speculation but knowledge. It all points to gold making significant moves to the upside. For such a premeditated MASSIVE exodus of the key short side players one can only speculate that the coming upside move will be truly awe inspiring!
Cheers
Adrian Douglas



sources www.metropolecafe.com

Futures de l'or / Tocom : Goldman Sachs, c'est fini?



Douglas pense que compte tenu de la transparence" du tocom..( où l'on sait précisément qui fait quoi) si GS passe long ...ce ne sera pas sur le tocom mais sur d'autres marchés de futures en toute discrétion .. le TOCOM ne lui est plus d'aucune utilité, trop "bavard "le tocom ...

grace à lui d'ailleurs, qui en fait le reporting quotidien et tres suivi, depuis 3ans, sur le metropole café !
Bill,
I spent the last week in Angola on business and unfortunately had no access to internet all week. In my absence there has been a very interesting development in Goldman Sachs position on the TOCOM. When I left they were NET SHORT 77 contracts and as of Jan 22 they are NET SHORT 69 contracts. That on the face of it looks pretty uninteresting. However, they COVERED 1071 short contracts and SOLD 1063 LONG contracts leaving them with NO LONG contracts and ONLY 69 SHORT CONTRACTS. This means that GOLDMAN SACHS IS OUT OF THE GOLD BUSINESS ON THE TOCOM. 69 short contracts is a pittance and is totally irrelevant.

I have always said that gold would explode when Goldman Sachs covered their TOCOM position. It has now happened and I think we can therefore expect gold to explode. I believe that GS began trading on TOCOM in late 2005 only for the purposes of providing the Cartel with a way to manipulate gold in the Asian trading hours. The bad news for GS was that TOCOM has the policy of publishing ALL trading positions of the members. GS got TOCOM to agree to keep trading positions secret but the TOCOM recanted and continued to publish data. In order to have the ability to hit the market with short selling the Cartel had to live with the exposure. If gold is going to explode you may ask why GS doesn’t buy a massive long position on TOCOM…because if they are going to go long they will make sure it is somewhere where the position is not disclosed. They no longer have any use for the TOCOM. The transparency it offers makes it a very undesirable platform for the Cartel unless its utility outweighs the disadvantage of disclosure. Gold price suppression is now untenable as the world’s fiat currencies come unraveled. The Cartel is not dead but they are in serious retreat.
I would like to think that my daily coverage of the GS position on TOCOM for over 3 years has helped in some way to put a nail in their coffin!
Cheers
Adrian le 26-01-2009

et ce soir, la suite :

Bill,
In the January 26 session on the TOCOM Goldman Sachs made no change to their positions yet again which leaves them SHORT 69 contracts with no long position at all. Their trading desk is starting to look like some sort of abandoned mine shaft in a ghost town. It looks like they have completely mined out the short-side of their TOCOM lease and it now lies derelict and abandoned…mean while back at GATAVILLE the Gold Rush is just beginning and the paydirt looks like it will yield the motherlode!
Cheers
Adrian


www.lemetropolecafe.com

GS n'a pas changé sa position depuis, le 26 janvier... toujours net short pour 69 contrats..
game is over


depuis le dernier point d'Adrian Douglas, les autres gros commerciaux ont également réduit la voilure ( de shorts) et sont pratiquement à ZERO à l'exception de STDJ; le dernier entrant sur ce marché.

nul doute qu'ils sont parfaitement placés pour savoir à quel point les coffres des BC ne contiennent plus de physique... donc que la manne de short selling est tarie... et ne veulent pas se retrouver shorts à ce point précis de l'histoire..
inutile de vous rappeler que ces gens là ont les moyens d'avoir à ce sujet des infos bien plus précises que vous et moi .. et pour cause

traduction rapide du topo d'Adrian Douglas
www.lemetropolecafe.com



Bill,
In the February 2 session on the TOCOM Goldman Sachs made no change to their positions yet again which leaves them SHORT 69 contracts with no long position at all. Their position has remained the same since Jan 22. Looks like the game is almost over.

Look at the net short positions of the traditional major gold shorts on the TOCOM. With the exception of STDJ (Standard Bank of Japan) they have all converged on zero. This is amazing! The entities that have been net short for decades have systematically over the last 3 years worked their positions down to a ZERO net short in gold. These are the most savvy, and in-the-know insiders in the gold world and they have seen it fit not to be short and have known about the need to get out of the gold short side for 3 years. This means this is NOT something they read in the newspaper last week. This is a major macro market factor. What could it be? My guess is that the insiders would have a good idea as to when Central bank gold would be depleted. After all, Frank Veneroso made a guess at this in 2000 with information he could glean from the outside. His estimate was around 2007-2008. Imagine what you could do if you were on the inside with more precise estimates of CB gold inventory and rate of dishoarding. Clearly all the big players do not want to touch gold on the short side as from about NOW. Who knows exactly when this market is going to blow up but it would seem it is REAL close.
Cheers
Adrian

Futures de l'or / Tocom, Goldman Sachs a couvert l'intégralité de sa short position sur l'or

GS vient de couvrir ses 69 shorts positions restantes sur le future fév 2009.. il ne lui reste désormais plus aucune position sur ce marché..

félicitations au Gata et à Adrian Douglas pour avoir parfaitement anticipé l'affaire , dans un timing ultra précis ..
nul doute que GS, ne va pas s'amuser à passer long sur ce marché là ( le seul qui publie des données nominatives) ... faut pas compter sur lui pour faire ce genre de publicité au gold



www.lemetropolecafe.com



Bill,
IT HAS HAPPENED!
Goldman Sachs covered their remaining 69 short TOCOM gold contracts on the very last trading day of the contract month. THEY HAVE NOW ZERO CONTRACTS OPEN IN GOLD. ……….THEY ARE COMPLETELY OUT OF THE TOCOM GOLD MARKET!
This is NOT a coincidence. Take a look at the chart below. I have been tracking their position on the TOCOM every day for the last 3 years. On no other exchange in the world is it possible to know what each trading house position is. Goldman Sachs reached a maximum net short position of 52000 contracts (52 tonnes) in May 2006. They have since been steadily covering the position. Their intention was so clear to me that I have been publishing this graph for more than 2 years showing the linear channel decline of their position. I predicted when GS had covered (or was net long) the gold price would take off. You can see that when GS first went slightly net long in October 2008 it coincided almost exactly with last year’s low in the gold price! The gold price has been rising ever since. The gold price just last week broke above $1000 for only the second time in history and two days later Goldman has reduced their position to ZERO. Had the trend of the last 30 months continued they would have gone significantly NET LONG. I would imagine cartel headquarters has told them if you want to go long do it on any exchange but the TOCOM because Adrian Douglas will broadcast it to every gold investor on the planet! And trust me I would have too!
I think this is yet another Victory for GATA!
Cheers
Adrian