marché de l'or /Comex / positions de Bear Stearns acquises par JPM

marché de l'or /Comex

Jpm récupére le carnet de positions sur les futures de l'or- comex de Bear stearns, anatomie d'un meutre / Rob Kirby

Bear Stearns: Murdered at the Golden Gates ( passionnant et édifiant)

http://news.goldseek.com/GoldSeek/1223619420.php



Bear Stearns: Murdered at the Golden Gates

Rob Kirby
Much has already been written about the untimely demise of investment bank
Bear Stearns. Most, if not all, that has been written to date – deals with
issues related to equities / expiring options – or the share price.
Recently, new information has come to light which allows us to forensically
examine the demise of Bear Stearns from a completely different angle –
GOLD.
No-one should be surprised by this development. Up until the untimely demise
of Bear Stearns, the most celebrated and at the same time misreported and
misunderstood financial collapse in American History was that of Long Term
Capital Management [LTCM] back in 1998. The treatment – or more properly stated,
the decision to bail-out LTCM – was all motivated by GOLD. For a primer on the
LTCM / GOLD nexus, readers can gain a nuts-and-bolts background in these two
articles:
The Anatomy of a Fictional Hedge Fund Collapse
LTCM Revisited - A Forensic Account
That Bear Stearns and LTCM should be mentioned in the same breath should also
come as no surprise for another reason; Bear Stearns was the only major player
invited by the NY Fed / Treasury to participate in the “then bail-out of LTCM”
who refused to participate. Not participating, or bearing a portion of the
financial burden, in the suppression of the gold price effectively made Bear
Stearns “an enemy of the State”.
So, it’s an ironic twist of fate that while LTCM’s demise was cloaked because
they were secretively and nefariously “short gold”; Bear Stearns was brought to
heel [assassinated, more likely] because they were “long” – at a minimum -
roughly 12 billion dollars worth of gold derivatives [futures].
At Their Demise, Bear Stearns Was Categorically “Long” Gold
That Bear would be “long gold” would only be consistent with the utterances
of their former senior economist, Conrad
DeQuadros – who on Jan. 12, 2008 stated,






<BLOCKQUOTE>
“Approaching $900 an ounce does cause us to be
significantly concerned about the inflation outlook, particularly because there
doesn't seem to be a lot of concern from [Federal Reserve Chairman Ben]
Bernanke”</BLOCKQUOTE>
and,
<BLOCKQUOTE>
“…recent statements from Bernanke suggest the Fed has put
inflation on the backburner as it frets about the possibility the United States
is slipping into recession.”</BLOCKQUOTE>
Bear Stearns was clearly bullish on gold.
Contrast this to the [cough] official line [or double talk, perhaps?]
at J.P. Morgan back in Dec. 14th, 2007,
<BLOCKQUOTE>
JP Morgan analysts Steve Shepherd expects gold to trade
around $820 an ounce in 2008 if its “intrinsic value remains unchanged” but
considers it not “best of class” as a hedge except in the debasement of paper
money.</BLOCKQUOTE>
Pretty gutsy call, eh, considering gold was already trading at 815 bucks per
ounce two days before this article was published:


But it is not until one analyzes the gold derivatives [futures] positions of
J.P. Morgan – comparing Q4/07 versus Q1/08 versus Q2/08 – that the true picture
of the extent to which Bear Stearns was involved in the gold trade truly
emerges.
Here’s the relevant timeline that encompasses Q4/07 [baseline reference],
Q1/08 and Q2/08 [capturing the closing/co-mingling/netting of Bear – Morgan
assets in April 08].
<BLOCKQUOTE>
“In
accordance with the NYSE rule providing that exception, the Audit Committee of
Bear Stearns' Board of Directors has expressly approved, and the full Board of
Directors has unanimously concurred with, Bear Stearns' intended use of the
exception. The closing of the sale of the 95 million shares is expected to be
completed upon the conclusion of a shareholder notice period required by the
NYSE, which is expected to occur on or about April 8,
2008.”</BLOCKQUOTE>


A full forensic reconstruction of the events surrounding the collapse /
bail-out of Bear Stearns has not been possible until recently, with the passage
of time and the recent release of Q2/08 derivatives report from the Office of
the Comptroller of the Currency of the U.S. Here is the progression of J.P.
Morgan’s gold derivatives position from Q4/07 [baseline] through to Q2/08:






The 12 billion drop in J.P.Morgan’s 1 – 5 yr. maturity is representative of
the “netting effect” from co-mingling Bear Stearns derivatives book.


What folks need to realize is that a 12 billion injection [long or short]
into the ‘relatively illiquid’ medium-term gold futures complex [1 – 5 yrs.] –
has much more market influence than 9 billion notional [or a like amount] in
< than 1 yr. - as occurred in March 08. Cumulatively, the shorts added by
J.P. Morgan over a very short period of time, like days or a couple of weeks, is
utterly mind numbing – akin to having an elephant jumping through a key-hole.
That the gold market was able to absorb this almost unthinkable, intentional,
premeditated “criminal shellacking” at the hands of J.P. Morgan Chase is a
testament to how enormous global investment demand really is for
GOLD.
That J.P. Morgan Chase – an institution with historic and deep links to the
Federal Reserve – acted in a criminal fashion is beyond-a-shadow-of-a-doubt.
They are and have unquestionably engaged in “INSIDER TRADING” and
completely desecrated the COMMODITIES TRADING LAW BOOK.
Not surprisingly, the financial world is now waking-up to the fact that
high-stakes games are being played in the “paper” [futures] gold arena. This is
why the fraudulent futures prices of gold and silver have become bifurcated from
the physical markets.
Sadly, when this criminal experiment fails completely – which it will - the
perpetrators are going to “wrap themselves in the flag” and claim that they were
conducting these operations in the name of NATIONAL SECURITY – but in
reality to save the bankers and “un-savable” U.S. Dollar.
Bear Stearns and its employees got in the way of this criminal enterprise –
largely because they were long gold.
Absolutely pitiful.
Just remember, you heard it here first.
The J.P. Morgan Chase / Federal Reserve edifice is being run like a
CRACK-HOUSE. For the sake of humanity, it needs to be shut down -
NOW.

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c'est vraiment un des Best de Rob Kirby !

donc on découvre que Bear Stearns était long pour la bagatelle de 12 milliards de $ sur les futures us de l'Or
quelle belle affaire pour JPM...

attention j'ai corrigé les 2 liens concernant LTCM ( qui renvoyaient à une mauvaise adresse ), les voici donc :

the anatomy of a fictional hedge fund collapse
LTCM revisited, a forensic account

petits calculs édifiants d'un lecteur du www.lemetropolecafe.com


Bear Sterns, Darth Vader, and Dennis Gartman
Bill,
It was March 14, 2008. Gold closed at $998.70, silver at $20.61, and the COMEX gold open interest was 506,514 contracts. That was the day that JP Morgan, aka Darth Vader vaporized the planet Bear Sterns. As Rob Kirby has shown in his article at The Little Bear Table, Bear Sterns was long about $12 billion of gold contracts and JP Morgan was short roughly 3 times that. The $12 billion represents about 120,000 COMEX gold contracts at the price on March 14. Since that time the open interest has slid to 332,498 contracts, a drop of 174,017. The liquidation of Bear Sterns gold obviously caused others to rush for the exit as it allowed JP Morgan to hammer the gold price. The 174,017 reduction in open interest represents 17.4 million ounces (541 tonnes) of gold or just under 3 months of world mine production. Wouldn’t it be nice if Dennis Gartman read LeMetropole, went on CNBC and told the real story instead of non sense like gold has been sniffing out deflation. Regards,
Bryant

The Real
Story

[size=12]By: Theodore Butler

The data in that report for August showed that one or two U.S. banks held a massive short position in COMEX silver futures of 33,805 contracts, or more than 169 million ounces. This is equal to 25% of annual world mine production,

The price of silver at the time of Bear Stearns implosion was $20 to $21 an ounce. A free market covering of a concentrated short position of this size would have driven silver prices to the $50 or $100 level and would have exposed the long-term manipulation. Rather than let the free market deal with the required short covering of such an uneconomic and unbacked short position, government authorities arranged to have the short position transferred to JP Morgan. This was undertaken by the U.S. Treasury Department, along with taxpayer guarantees against loss to Morgan worth billions of dollars. This was done, no doubt, to save the financial system from imploding. This was also patently illegal, as it aided and abetted the silver manipulation.

http://news.silverseek.com/TedButler/1226344970.php

je vous préviens ça arrache...!!!

alors la, ça arrache en effet.. j'ai relu très attentivement ...

le point numéro 1 c'est le courrier de la CFTC à un membre du congrés qui confirme bien que l'accroissement de la short position banques us d'août, provient bien d'une fusion avec une entité short sur les futures US de l'Argent.

Citation :

"In effect the increase [in the short position] reflected a one time acquisition of positions that were acquired through a merger in the industry, and not new trading by a bank. Thus, the assertion that there was new activity undertaken by the banks that led to a fall in silver prices is not correct since the "new" activity reflected in the CFTC’s report was in essence positions that had already existed in the market prior to July 1^st."

et comme le dit Butler, on ne voit pas très bien de quelle autre fusion il pourrait s'agir, d'autant plus si on se referre à l'importance de la short position transferrée :169 millions d'once d'argent

une fois posé ceci, la suite logique exposée par Butler en découle..
JPM, la FED et la CFTC ont organisé en toute illégalité cete opération qui leur permettait de ne pas dénouer la short position en question ...mais qui leur "imposait" de conduire le raid sanglant que l'on sait, pour la couvrir un maximum au moindre coût.. et surtout éviter à tout prix une envolée jugée trop dangereuse en raison de la crise systémique...
-avec les conséquences que l'on connait pour toutes les filiéres Argent métal ( de la production au raffinage ) sans parler de la spoliation pure et simple des investisseurs
- et SANS aucun effet sur la crise systémique, évidemment.. puisque cette fraude manifeste ne sert quà enrichir qu'une minorité, et pas à réparer ..

ps: j'ai ici parlé de la position "futures Argent" de Bear Stearns, il va de soi qu'il en est strictement pareil pour la short position Futures de l' Or.. qui par contre ( voir plus haut Kirby ) pourrait ( au conditionnel) avoir eu une contrepartie longue, en dérivés Or métal
par contre et je viens de vérifier, pas de contrepartie de la short position "futures de l'argent" de Bear Stearns en dérivés

bon .. on a bien comme je le pressentais un désaccord Kirby - Butler sur la position"futures de l'Or "de Bear Stearns, Kirby maintenant qu'ils étaient longs.. et Butler, shorts

source midas de ce soir

Citation :

Bill;
For what it’s worth – Ted Butler is wrong when he claims that Bear Stearns was short gold. They were long. I tried to explain this to him but he doesn’t feel my work constitutes adequate proof. I suspect he simply does not understand.
Thought you might appreciate the heads up.
Best,
Rob Kirby

un détail me fait donner raison à Kirby.. c'est que la date à laquelle les shorts positions des bancaires us ont boosté, c'est aout 2008.. soit bien apres la reprise de Bear Stearns par JPM..
et également la soudaine diminution de la position dérivés Or de JPM au Q2 2008
on aurait du voir booster ces positions us bancaires dès avril 2008 .. ce qui n'a pas été le cas, selon les rapports bancaires de la CFTC que j'ai consulté à cet effet.

si Kirby a raison, Jpm aurait donc bradé ces longues positions Bear Stearns. mi mars. rien de plus simple pour faire plonger les cours comme il le montre ds l'article cité en tête de file...
puis, enginneré un autre sell off sur le mois aout 2008


il faut donc revenir au courrier de la CFTC et se demander de quelle ( autre? ) fusion ou renflouement il pourrait s'agir..

Citation :

In effect the increase [in the short position] reflected a one time acquisition of positions that were acquired through a merger in the industry, and not new trading by a bank. Thus, the assertion that there was new activity undertaken by the banks that led to a fall in silver prices is not correct since the "new" activity reflected in the CFTC’s report was in essence positions that had already existed in the market prior to July 1^st."

pour la banque US, il ne fait nul doute pour moi qu'il s'agit de JPM, bras droit de la FED... pour le reste ... AIG me semble 1 excellent candidat ..
je sais.. le courrier de la CFTC parle de fusion ...
bref va falloir investiguer sur ce que JPM a pu racheter partiellement ou non vers le mois de juillet 2008 ...

*********

l'autre alternative, mais là ça devient hyper technique... donnerait raison à Kirby et à Butler..avec les nuances ci dessous :

Futures US de l'Or:
BS est short sur futures avec une couverture longue sur dérivés

Futures US de l'Argent:
sur ce point Kirby est muet.. et comme dit précédemment j'ai été verifier la position dérivés Argent de JPM.. elle n'a pas bougé d'un poil entre Q1 ET Q2 2008 ( contrairement à celle des dérivés Or de JPM qui a fortement baissé )
donc Bear Stearns aurait été short sur futures Argent sans couverture en dérivés