cours or corrigé de l'inflation

cours or corrigé de l'inflation / équivallence top de 1980 en  dollars constants


prix de l'or tenant compte de l'inflation


courbe de l'or corrigée de l inflation, c'est à dire en dollars constants: graph de LT Norcini ( en page 2)

(graphe en cloture mensuelle,comme c'est indiqué ...
par conséquent le plus haut du cours de l'or de 675$ en clot mensuelle équivaut à 1700$ d'aujourd'hui )

http://www.jsmineset.com/cwsimages/Miscfiles/5642_Charts_for_1-1-2008_Monthly_Gold_and_CPI_adjusted.pdf

Oui, ça va de soi, on est loin de la "bulle", mais je maintiens que ça reste un signal fort pour les ATistes du monde entier habitué (et même formatés) à travailler non pas sur des charts en $ constants, mais sur des graphs en $ courant

- je devrais dire en $ coulant -

With gold now above its record high price of $850, it's a good time to step back and ask: Do I still want to own it? Do I still want to buy it? Is gold still good value? The answer to all three questions is a resounding "yes."
...Still Good Value
Adjusting for inflation, it takes $2,208 today to equal the previous high of $850 reached in January 1980. Comparing gold to the Dow Jones Industrials Average is another useful measure to determine gold's value. Gold is overvalued when it takes only one ounce of gold to buy the DJIA. For example, in the 1930s one ounce of gold at $35 bought the DJIA, and it did so again in 1980 when an ounce of gold was $850. Though this ratio has fallen from over 40 ounces in 2000, it still takes 16 ounces of gold to buy the DJIA, meaning gold is still relatively good value.

source midas


Gold price facts and milestones on road to record $875
Jan 8 (Reuters) - The spot gold price surged to a historic high above $875 an ounce on Tuesday on fresh bouts of fund buying, backed up by a weak dollar and firm oil.

At 1005 GMT gold was quoted at $873.20/$873.90 an ounce, having hit a record $875.80 earlier.

Gold was fixed at a record high of $850 an ounce in January 1980 as high inflation linked to strong oil prices, Soviet intervention in Afghanistan and the impact of the Iranian revolution prompted investors to heavily buy the metal.

After adjusting for inflation, the 1980 record high price was $2,079 an ounce at 2006 prices, while the real average price in 1980 has been calculated at $1,503, according to precious metals consultancy GFMS Ltd.

Based on the London PM fix, the actual average price of gold was $614.50 an ounce in 1980, more than double the average $304.69 the previous year. The metal fell as low as $481.50 in 1980.

Gold's average price was about $604 an ounce last year and the average for 2007 stood at more than $680.

Following are key dates in gold's trading history since the early 1970s:

* August 1971 - President Richard Nixon takes the dollar off the gold standard, which had been in place with minor modifications since the Bretton Woods Agreement of 1944 fixed the conversion rate for one Troy ounce of gold at $35.

* August 1972 - United States devalues dollar to $38 per ounce of gold.

* March 1973 - Most major countries adopt floating exchange rate system.

* May 1973 - United States devalues dollar to $42.22 per ounce.

* January 1980 - Gold hits record high at $850 per ounce. High inflation because of strong oil prices, Soviet intervention in Afghanistan and the impact of the Iranian revolution, which prompted investors to move into the metal.

* August 1999 - Gold falls to all-time low at $251.70 on worries about central banks reducing reserves of gold bullion and mining companies selling gold in forward markets to protect against falling prices.

* October 1999 - Gold reaches two-year high at $338 after agreement to limit gold sales by 15 European central banks. Market sentiment toward gold begins to turn more positive.

* February 2003 - Gold reaches 4-1/2-year high on safe-haven buying in run-up to conflict with Iraq.

* December 2003-January 2004 - Gold breaks above $400, reaching levels last traded in 1988. Investors increasingly buy gold as risk insurance for portfolios.

* November 2005 - Spot gold breaches $500 for the first time since December 1987, when spot hit $502.97.

* April 11, 2006 - Gold prices surpass the next big level of $600, the highest since December 1980, with funds and investors pouring money into commodities on a weak dollar, firm oil prices and geopolitical worries.

* May 12, 2006 - Gold prices peak at $730 an ounce, the highest level since January 1980, with funds and investors
pouring money into commodities on a weak dollar, firm oil prices and political tensions over Iran's nuclear ambitions.

* June 14, 2006 - Falls 26 percent to $543 from its 26-year peak after investors and speculators sold out of commodity positions.

* Nov 7, 2007 - Spot gold hits a 28-year high of $845.40 an ounce.

* Jan 2, 2008 - Gold breaks above $850.

* Jan 8, 2008 - Gold hits record $875.80.
-END-

pour calculer le top de l'or 1980 en $ d'aujourd'hui, la pluspart des analyses, prennent les données officielles du CPI..

ce qui donne, comme nous l'avons vu plus haut 2200$ environ, pour le top intraday de 1980 ..

mais si l'on prend des données plus réalistes ou moins hédonistes;) , par exemple celles de shadowstats.com, on arrive à un cours de 5000$ , pour le même top de1980 ( et encore, ça a été fait courant 2007 )

graph by courtesy of Nick Laird, sharelynx.com, source midas de ce soir


My long held thinking of $3,000 to $5,000 gold is not that much of a reach. From Australia’s Nick Laird:
Hi Bill
There's been lots of talk in articles of late of the prior inflation adjusted gold price set back in 1980.
According to normal Gov't issued CPI the price is approx $2200
Well I did this chart last year & it's a little out of date (I don't have recent data) but it still tells a big big story.
It shows the inflation adjusted price of gold not using the Gov't hedonistically adjusted data series but rather John Williams (www.shadowstats.com) real inflation series.
As you can see the oft touted $2200 is in all reality closer to $5000.
Rather than upping the ante two fold rather we all need to set our horizons a little higher knowing we're not using Gov't manipulated numbers.
Cheers Nick

Not a stretch at all…

John Williams de Shadowstats, révise à 7150$ son calcul du pic du prix de l'once de 1980, en $ ajusté de l'inflation

puisque en effet les méthodologies pour mesurer l'inflation, ne sont pas celles qui prévalaient en 1980

John Williams of Shadowstats: $7,150 is the inflation-adjusted equivalent to gold's 1980 peak.


"If the methodologies of measuring inflation in 1980 had been kept intact, gold would have to hit $7,150 to be the equivalent of the 1980 record," Williams said.
Gold would need to rise more than sixfold to top the 1980 record, using a more accurate inflation-adjustment, said John Williams, an economist and the editor of Berkeley, California- based Shadowstats.com. He said the government has understated the cost of living over the past two decades with adjustments in the way it measures the basket of goods and services monitored by the U.S. consumer price index, or CPI.

si on prend les nouvelles données shadow stats, l'équivallent du top de 1980 en $ actuels, c'est 7500 $ ==> voir graph numéro 2


http://c1.libsyn.com/media/18706/newsletter1006.pdf?nvb=20100621141751&nva=20100622142751&sid=3e2ec8fd95b5ebd5b814ced7ec090ff9&t=0217020ea363f874b7d2d

graphe actualisé avec les très officielles ( et sous estimées ) données du CPI

Citation :

While we all know that the official government CPI numbers are a fantasy, it is still rather interesting to see where gold has run into overhead resistance based on this inflation adjusted chart.

J'avais ce graphe dans mes archives ... ça date d'avril 2010 mais ça donne une idée si on déflate avec l'indice "corrigé" de SGS http://www.shadowstats.com/

on devrait être plus proche des 8 -9000 pour le pic de 1980 ...

oui, Imhotep c'est bien pour ça que j'insistais sur CPI... c'est l'hypothése minimaliste ++++

t'as bien fait d'archiver , le shadow stats , mes liens au dessus ne sont plus valables

thx !

actualisation du top historique 1980 du cours de l'or en tenant compte de l'inflation

-2472 $ l'once d'or selon les stats officielles du CPI

-8702 $ l'once d'or selon les statistiques shadow stats

Citation :

The earlier all-time high of $850.00 of January 21, 1980 would be $2,472 per troy ounce, based on November 2011 CPI-U-adjusted dollars, $8,702 per troy ounce based on SGS-Alternate-CPI-adjusted dollars.

http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/KWN_DailyWeb/Entries/2011/12/20_John_Williams_-_Gold_to_Prevail_as_System_Falls_into_Disorder.html

Citation :

Despite
the September 5th historic-high gold price of $1,895.00 per troy ounce, and
despite the multi-decade-high silver price of $48.70 per troy ounce, gold and
silver prices have yet to re-hit their 1980 historic levels, adjusted for
inflation.





The
earlier all-time high of $850.00 of January 21, 1980 would be $2,472 per troy
ounce, based on November 2011 CPI-U-adjusted dollars, $8,702 per troy ounce
based on SGS-Alternate-CPI-adjusted dollars.





In
like manner, the all-time high price for silver in January 1980 of $49.45 per
troy ounce, although approached earlier this year, still has not been hit since
1980, including in terms of inflation-adjusted dollars. Based on November
2011 CPI-U inflation, the 1980 silver price peak would be $144 per troy ounce
and would be $506 per troy ounce in terms of SGS-Alternate-CPI-adjusted
dollars.”

Cours de l'or ajusté de l'inflation - shadow stats



on est loin du top de 1980







en tenant compte de l'inflation réelle ( et pas des statistiques CPI officielles ) , ça donne 8890 $ l'once d'or pour top 1980

et 517 $ l'once d'argent pour ce même top de 1980



http://seekingalpha.com/article/383451-gold-and-silver-way-off-inflation-adjusted-highs

cours de l'or corrigé de l'inflation : au plancher historique

Si, au lieu de s'en tenir au CPI, sans cesse modifié, on utilise, comme l'a fait John Williams de, Shadow Stats ,  le CPI 1980, voilà le graphique qu'on obtient !



le cours de l'or est très loin d'être surévalué :
ajusté de l'inflation réelle, il atteint son plancher de 2001,
pire encore : ce niveau est le même qu'avant l'envolée de 1975, consécutive à l'abandon du gold exchange standart, de Nixon en 1971

http://www.caseyresearch.com/articles/gold-is-near-an-all-time-inflation-adjusted-low