analyse technique or et argent : gros mouvements en vue / bull

2 anaalyses techniques sur l'or, puis sur l'argent,

on s'oriente de plus en plus vers le scénario d'un rallye d'été ( comme l'année dernière ))



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A big move in gold and silver is imminent according to traditional technical analysis.

Both gold and silver are tracing out triangles. The triangle in gold is near its apex point from where the breaks usually occur.

The following chart shows the pattern being traced out by SPDR Gold Trust (GLD). A similar but less pronounced pattern exists in iShares Silver Trust (SLV). Interestingly there is no such pattern in neither the Market Vectors Gold Miners (GDX) ETF nor in Market Vectors Junior Gold Miners (GDXJ).

< Gregg S. FisherContributor
The pattern being traced out in gold is known as the right angle triangle. The right angle triangles come in two variations. According to Robert D. Edwards and John Magee, the fathers of modern technical analysis and authors of Technical Analysis of Stock Trends, descending triangles are bearish formations that result from distribution. It is generally accepted that descending triangles are typically continuation patterns.

The triangle shown on the chart shows a downtrend for gold. Therefore by applying the techniques of Edwards and Magee there should be a breakdown as the triangle forms.

Technical analysis is more of an art than a science. Some technicians look at the same chart and come to a different conclusion. According to some practitioners, the triangle is in the context of an overall bull market, triangle patterns are continuation patterns, and therefore the break should be on the upside.

The way I resolve various contradictions is by backtesting and taking only those signals that show high probability of success. Back testing shows that signals from patterns are more reliable when combined with other traditional technical indicators. I have found that signals based on multiple traditional techniques are more reliable than just one technique.

ADX stands for Average Directional Movement Index and DMI stands for Directional Movement Indicator. +DMI measures the strength of an up move and –DMI measures the strength of a down move, the two combine to form the system known as DMI. ADX was developed by J. Welles Wilder, JR. and along with +DMI and –DMI is used to gauge the strength of a trend.

RSI or Relative Strength Index is a technical momentum indicator that compares the movement to internal past strength or weakness. RSI was also developed by Wilder.

The price pattern that is shown in the chart when combined with the pattern of ADX relative to +DMI and –DMI, and the pattern of 21 period RSI relative to its seven period moving average usually leads to an upside break.

Technical analysis is more of an art than a science.
-END-

Bloomberg) Silver Futures May Rise 25% on Double Bottom: Technical Analysis

Silver prices, which slumped for four straight months, may rebound 25 percent after hitting a "double bottom," according to technical analysis by Steel Vine Investments LLC.

Silver futures for September delivery may climb to $34.50 an ounce this quarter after falling to $26.33 on Sept. 26 and $26.105 on June 28, this year’s low, said Spencer Patton, the Chicago-based chief investment officer for Steel Vine. Prices jumped 5 percent on June 29, the most since Jan. 3.

A double bottom is a chart pattern showing a drop in price, followed by a rebound and then another decline to near the same level, usually indicating support.

"We have jumped back from the inflection point telling us that prices are now headed higher," Patton said. The first "psychological" level the market will test is $30, he said. (Bloomberg) -- Silver prices, which slumped for four straight months, may rebound 25 percent after hitting a "double bottom," according to technical analysis by Steel Vine Investments LLC.

Silver futures for September delivery may climb to $34.50 an ounce this quarter after falling to $26.33 on Sept. 26 and $26.105 on June 28, this year’s low, said Spencer Patton, the Chicago-based chief investment officer for Steel Vine. Prices jumped 5 percent on June 29, the most since Jan. 3.

A double bottom is a chart pattern showing a drop in price, followed by a rebound and then another decline to near the same level, usually indicating support.

"We have jumped back from the inflection point telling us that prices are now headed higher," Patton said. The first "psychological" level the market will test is $30, he said.
Silver prices, which slumped for four straight months, may rebound 25 percent after hitting a "double bottom," according to technical analysis by Steel Vine Investments LLC.

Silver futures for September delivery may climb to $34.50 an ounce this quarter after falling to $26.33 on Sept. 26 and $26.105 on June 28, this year’s low, said Spencer Patton, the Chicago-based chief investment officer for Steel Vine. Prices jumped 5 percent on June 29, the most since Jan. 3.

A double bottom is a chart pattern showing a drop in price, followed by a rebound and then another decline to near the same level, usually indicating support.

"We have jumped back from the inflection point telling us that prices are now headed higher," Patton said. The first "psychological" level the market will test is $30, he said. (Bloomberg) -- Silver prices, which slumped for four straight months, may rebound 25 percent after hitting a "double bottom," according to technical analysis by Steel Vine Investments LLC.

Silver futures for September delivery may climb to $34.50 an ounce this quarter after falling to $26.33 on Sept. 26 and $26.105 on June 28, this year’s low, said Spencer Patton, the Chicago-based chief investment officer for Steel Vine. Prices jumped 5 percent on June 29, the most since Jan. 3.

A double bottom is a chart pattern showing a drop in price, followed by a rebound and then another decline to near the same level, usually indicating support.

"We have jumped back from the inflection point telling us that prices are now headed higher," Patton said. The first "psychological" level the market will test is $30, he said.