manipulations du cours de l'or / un éclairage nouveau

extrait de l'excellent site "the privateer"

http://www.the-privateer.com/index.php

Citation :

Gold Price Manipulation In A New Light
With the $US Gold price on the slide again this week, and again for no "apparent" reason, the Gold websites and forums are again alive with talk and speculation about manipulation of the price. This, we contend, is belabouring the obvious.

The only monetary system in which there is no "manipulation" of the Gold price is a system in which there is no "Gold price" to manipulate. Under a genuine Gold standard, Gold IS the money. As such, it forms the "denominator" in ALL prices...

But the fact remains that as soon as the US had a Central Bank in place, it became imperative for those in charge of the financial and banking system to manipulate Gold. …

With the separation of Gold from what is used as money comes the concept of a Gold "price". Once that is established, the means by which to manipulate Gold come into the hands of those who separated it from what is used as money. Governments which repudiate Gold as money have no choice but to manipulate it. The question of whether they manipulate Gold or how much they are manipulating it at any given point in time are beside the point….

Yes, the methods by which this manipulation is carried out have become more sophisticated in recent years, as have the methods by which all sectors of the "market" and the economy are manipulated.


Don't waste your time looking for "manipulation" of Gold. It is ever present. Nowadays, it is blatant and unceasing. It has been said that the manipulators don't care how obvious they are anymore. That is not the case. They have no choice but to keep the manipulation going and the only way they can keep it going "successfully" is to be ever more obvious about it. And the more obvious they get, the closer they come to losing control.

et les commentaires de Bill Murphy , du Gata et de quelqe uns de ses lecteurs :

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The Privateer is dead right; the more obvious the manipulation of the gold price is, like what we saw the past few weeks, the closer the manipulation is to ending. And the reason is simple, and one presented by Frank Veneroso at the GATA African Gold Summit. The Gold Cartel is running out of enough available central bank gold to meet the 1500 tonne supply/demand deficit. They are hitting the wall. Yes, they can find a tranche here and there to win a battle, but they are losing the war and are retreating.

Most of the emails I receive are either supportive of what I do, or contribute superb input, which I could never locate on my own. My role is to filter that input out and present what I think is informative at the time.

Of course I get some here and there which are critical, like this one sent this weekend:

So let's get this right:
* Bill predicted gold would be much higher by end of summer ($800 I recall)
* Noone knows exactly how much physical gold the gold cartel has left, other than it is half gone... but that still leaves a huge 15000 tonnes... and that was some time ago with no update since... it's like saying "USA is just across the water from England so let's build a bridge".

* Nymex reserves are still huge
* Cartel can announce increase in futures margins at any time
* Cartel control financial media, and for most investors the financial media is the bible.
* Cartel still not answerable to Congress or CFTC

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Please Bill - your short-term predictions have been woeful and should be terminated. That is why your Cafe indicator is so low.
Many critics have said that if your short-term prediction has been so bad, how can your long term predictions be trusted. Some harsher critics (not me) even say you even try to create stories to justify your Cafe memberships ie "price commentary makes action"... eg glee/despair on daily fluctuations in POG, and abuse of dissenters & cartel.

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Personally, I think you have a great story to tell, but please stick to your strengths ie the longer term... although when gold does eventually reach your predicted $2000 I fear that most gold bulls will be too old to enjoy it.
Cheers Anne

Each to their own. This woman is clearly very bright. However, she is looking at the hole, not the donut. I am not a market timer, or an investment advisor. What I do offer is what I am doing when it comes to various stocks, as in ECU Silver and Samex are my largest two share holdings, among other like Seabridge Gold etc., as well as insight as to what is really transpiring in the gold and silver investment world. I have owned ECU and Samex for 7 years and loaded the boat at the bottom of each. This is why I wrote the following on Friday, which makes the timing of the above email so weird:

"This is no time to be too cute. A historic move of epic proportions is coming. Those who paid heed to this one trick pony market commentary in 2001 have made a great deal of money. I know I have. The key is to stay in the game, not get taken out of position, and to remain with winning gold and silver companies. Many of the companies that veteran Café members bought back then for pennies are worth many pennies or dollars. In the months and years ahead those same firms will be worth many dollars. The return on equity has been, and will be staggering. How typical that so few investors have been a part of this giant move. At some time they will be and will be ever so happy to sell to them."

My role is the big picture and it has worked ever since the GATA African Gold Summit in Durban, South Africa on May 10, 2001 with gold in the 250’s. It worked after Gold Rush 21 in the Yukon’s Dawson City. Gold rallied $300 in 7 months after that conference before correcting. Holders of physical gold, and silver, during all this time have cleaned up. What we are going through now is another consolidation phase, one which will end. The prices of gold and silver are going much higher.

As Houston’s Dan Norcini (congrats are in order as he has a new baby girl to feed) says, analyzing a rigged market is brutal. So brutal that the dingbat analysts in the Barron’s piece are forced to make up contrived input to explain why gold does so poorly during crises of any kind.

Yes, I am a one trick pony regarding this historic move of a lifetime. Once gold and silver do what they will, and it will be in the near term, not long term, there will be no more reason for me to perform with commentary, at least with this consistency. We will have all made so much money, there will be no need to. Oh well.

Anyway, it’s always more fun to read emails like this one, which came in minutes apart from the one Anne sent:

Hey Bill,
Just wanted to drop a line telling you what a terrific job you've done on Midas lately. It's always good, but the past several weeks have really contained great input from all over. I even like the fact that you're willing to publish something you disagree with just to present the other side of things. Very professional.

Anyhow, I don't often take time to let you know how much those of us on the other end really appreciate all you do. As I've said before, your column is the kind of thing the founders of the internet always envisioned—bringing a universe of information into a single location very quickly and efficiently. Totally cool!
Keep up the great work,
Derek

Chuck checked in Saturday and gets what Anne does not:

Bill:
You know that I have been very bullish on the near term prospects of the stock market and the gold shares for a much longer span. I didn't know why this should be except that the sentiment stuff was overwhelmingly positive (actually negative, contrarily) and not mentioned by anyone. Since July 21 when I sent out the letter to John Embry, the market has risen about 6% but the gold shares have not, remaining under the typical pall on Fridays and panic mode on the other days. Now we can see why. The market was correcting the link between gold and oil, and it has flushed out the pseudo bulls like Dennis Gartman who seems to change his mind on every turn of the markets. I am certainly glad that he is not on our side. I was thinking yesterday that the selling in the shares of the near-producers reeks of his hedge fund cronies dumping on his shift.

We should start to lift off at any time as seasonal factors come into play and the reflating for the elections take hold.

There is no doubt that Paulson has his grimy prints all over the gold market, and that the explanation of the black box is valid. A move through 350 on the HUI should do it. This leg is going to be a shocker since we have all of the hallmarks of a first class shakeout behind us. Have a great weekend. Chuck

We could get that 350+ HUI close any day Chuck. The HUI soared 17.56 to 344.56 and the XAU leaped 6.90 to 147.62. The HUI has taken out its down sloping pennant formation line to the upside by a slight margin. Good stuff.

HUI
http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/quickchart/quickchart.asp?symb=hui&sid=0&o_symb=hui&freq=1&time=8

It is important to keep in mind that many gold investors and pundits are out of the market. We are in the middle of a historic market move of epic proportions and many would-be investors, or former investors, are on the sidelines. That is BULLISH!

GATA BE IN IT TO WIN IT!