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| | minières argentifères /mythes et réalité / opportunité d'une vie |  |
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 minières argentifères /mythes et réalité / opportunité d'une vie
par marie Sam 26 Fév 2011 - 16:00 | |
| un topo en 2 parties de Jeff Nielson .. à ne louper sous aucun prétexte.. si l'investissement argent métal quil constitue l'opportunité d'une vie, reste encore très marginal dans les portefeuilles, l'investissement en actions minières argent est encore plus largement boudé ... . cette étude fait le point sur l'histoire absolument hallucinante de ce secteur et vous démontrera ( à minima ) comment notre perception en a été totalement faussée ...qu'on ne se pose même plus la question de savoir pourquoi , seule une minorité de producteurs se consacrent à 100% sur la production d'argent métal... et en quoi l'investissement sur ces producteurs constitue une opportunité à ne pas louper impossible à résumer d'avantage , tant cette étude est riche et passionnante .. The Myth Of The 'Primary Silver Mine'http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_08/nielson021411.htmlThe Future Of Silver Mininghttp://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_08/nielson021911.html  Marie Pas de copier-coller: merci de faire un lien vers ce post. Suivez Hardinvestor sur Twitter et sur Facebook
Dernière édition par marie le Dim 27 Mar 2011 - 4:13, édité 3 fois |
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| | | La 1ere partie de comment gagner de l'argent avec 1 portefeuille d'actions minières?
par g.sandro Dim 27 Mar 2011 - 3:55 | |
| Lien vers la 1ere partie l'étude pédagogique indispensable au décryptage des rapports de forage exploratoires des compagnies minières. http://www.bullionbullscanada.com/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=17572:making-money-on-miners-part-i&catid=48:gold-commentary&Itemid=131 - Citation :
Making Money on Miners, Part I
Written by Jeff Nielson Saturday, 19 March 2011 15:31
At Bullion Bulls
Canada, we have made it one of our “missions” to provide a complete learning
resource for precious metals miners. Our goal is to offer investors a tool which
will allow even complete novices to this sector to learn to invest on their own
with these companies.
We
consider our Mining Company database and “Education Vault” already superior to any other package of
information available at other sites. The former provides extensive data on many
of the most-promising miners, while the latter offers a complete teaching tool
regarding all of the principle fundamentals for both precious metals miners, and
precious metals themselves.
There
is, however, still plenty of room to build upon this. In this piece I will seek
to simplify and connect-the-dots on various concepts which we have introduced to
readers in previous articles. It is imperative that readers (and especially
novice investors) familiarize themselves with all of our previous material on
this subject, rather than seeking to use this piece as some simplistic “formula”
which they can blindly rely upon in order to (supposedly) reap huge
gains.
With all
mining companies, there is a specific evolution that takes place with any/every
project which eventually becomes a mine (subject to only rare exceptions). This
progression is as follows:
early exploration-> extensive drilling->
resource estimate-> economic assessment-> major financing->
construction of mine-> commercial production
There
are two important observations which can made about this mining cycle. First,
most but not all of these phases imply developments in a particular
project which should increase
the share price. This in turn implies that each phase of operations is executed
competently by management, and (in the case of earlier phases) that the company
experiences a certain degree of “luck” in that the mineral resource which they
expect to find through their exploration and drilling is
actually proven through subsequent drilling results and technical
modeling.
The
second (and perhaps more important) observation to be made is that within each
phase, we can attempt to “time the market” to a certain extent. This can be
either through looking to buy when certain clues present themselves, or
conversely choosing to sell all or part of our positions when we see other
pieces of data emerge.
Note
that understanding and interpreting these clues properly requires not only
having a thorough understanding of current market conditions, but also detailed
knowledge on each phase of a miner’s operations. Those lacking this level of
understanding need to refer to our earlier work in order to familiarize
themselves with this information. The other important caveat here is that this
analysis implies (at least) stable, if not favorable market conditions. As is
true with any investment, sudden swings in sentiment (either to a positive or
negative extreme) will overwhelm the individual fundamentals of these companies,
and render this analysis invalid.
Assuming
an adequate understanding of this sector and stable market conditions, astute
investors should be able to utilize the following guidance in order to make more
profitable “entrances” and “exits” in their investing.
Early
exploration:
With
this first phase of mining obviously representing the most-speculative period of
the mining cycle, this makes the task of the investor in timing their investment
decisions both easier and more difficult. It’s “easier” in the sense that there
are less types of activity to monitor, and success or failure is relatively
straightforward to assess (again, assuming a detailed understanding of mining
fundamentals).
It is
“more difficult” for investors precisely because of the absence of large
quantities of data. There may be historical drilling results to look at, if a
particular land-package has been previously explored. Note that most such
“historic” work, is entirely unofficial in that
it doesn’t meet more stringent modern standards for mining data, designed to reduce the
possibility of some sort of data-fraud being perpetrated against
investors.
The only
other data which investors may have at their disposal is information from
neighbouring mines, if this particular project is situated in an existing mining
“camp” (i.e. district). All other data for investors to ponder is generated by
the miner itself, (more or less) in “real time”.
Such
data usually begins with some sort of aerial “imaging” work. With technology in
this area having evolved considerably, areas which send especially “strong
signals” in such scans can be considered to have a very high probability of
mineralization. Thus, one possible entry-point for these early-stage miners is
after scanning has been done, but before the first “trenching”
or drilling takes place.
“Trenching” refers to a form of near-surface mineral
sampling which miners will often choose to engage in before bringing in a drill
(and drilling crew). The decision as to whether to “trench” before drilling
usually hinges upon one or two factors, although some geological formations are
simply more amenable to this preliminary form of explanation.
If the
“target” which the miner wishes to explore is very accessible (i.e. favorable
geology and supporting infrastructure), or if management’s assessment is that
there is a very high probability of success, then miners will often go directly
from aerial scans to drilling. Conversely, where the terrain is less-accessible,
or if there is less certainty about what will be found, then miners will often
choose the less-expensive trenching, which is also faster/easier to conduct in
locations without easy transportation access. Thus, if we see a company choosing
to proceed with trenching-work after their aerial scanning (rather than moving
straight to drilling), then this is a clue that perhaps we should hold onto our
cash for the moment – and wait for further data to emerge.
The
other key variable to assess in timing our entry into not only early-stage
explorers but all miners which have not commenced commercial production is
financing. The importance of these events in the life of a
junior miner cannot be over-emphasized to investors. Obviously, any company
which is not yet producing revenues must have cash on hand to do
anything.
No
matter how promising a particular property may be, without the necessary capital
to fuel the exploration of the project, the miner (and its share price) will
stagnate, and eventually sag. This means determining a company’s
current cash on
hand is always one of our top priorities when we first “screen” and then “select” these companies.
It also
provides one of the Golden Rules in mining investing: investing right after a
financing takes place maximizes the probability of a near-term rise in the share
price, versus nearly any other event in the life of a miner which we can
analyze in hindsight. Obviously, spectacular drilling results, strong
commercial production, or even an acquisition can cause a near-term spike in the
share price of any miner.
The
problem with those events is that most of the rise in the share price takes
place instantly when the news is announced. Thus those
investors who rush into a miner after some “good news” has just been announced
are often choosing one of the worst times to enter these companies as
investments – immediately after a large surge in the share
price.
Where a
financing differs from these other scenarios is that the financing itself is
generally not “good news” (unless the ability of a miner to raise more capital
is in doubt). What this means is that a financing is one of the few “positive”
events in the life of a miner which usually causes a short-term drop in
the share price. Thus the dynamics are often totally reversed.
Instead
of buying-in to one of these miners right after a jump in the share price, we
can often purchase a miner right after a financing at a discount to its price
prior to this news. There are two qualifications here. First, the drop in share
price after a financing can often be a delayed reaction (for myriad reasons),
thus waiting to purchase one’s shares even a week after a financing was
announced does not guarantee we won’t see further near-term weakness in the
share price.
Secondly, sometimes a financing is unambiguously good
news for a miner. This can be (as previously stated) because it’s ability to
raise capital was in doubt, or simply because of the terms or details of the
financing. If a company is trading at $1/share and it’s able to complete a
financing at $1.50/share (most of the financing for these companies is
equity-based), then that is a pretty strong signal to investors that the company
is undervalued at the current price – and news of the financing would/could
cause an immediate jump higher.
Alternately, the financing could be “over-subscribed”
or some sugar-daddy with “deep pockets” could emerge as a source of financing
(often a larger mining company). Obviously both of these expressions of interest
in the operations of a particular miner have bullish overtones, and thus could
cause the miner’s share price to rise rather than fall after a financing takes
place.
Once a
financing takes place, the miner is prepared to either complete earlier
operational work which had already been announced (i.e. drilling) and/or it can
announce additional programs. Both of these scenarios are mildly bullish, and
begin to put upward pressure on the share price, with that pressure increasing
as investors learn/deduce that the company is about to announce some results of its
exploration.
There
are various ways in which investors can learn if a mining company is close to
announcing results. One way is to contact the investor relations department of
these miners and ask them yourself. Ordinary investors with the
time/inclination to learn more about these companies should not feel intimidated
when it comes to asking for information.
While
these companies are generally more favorably disposed to answer questions from
“existing shareholders” rather than “potential buyers” of shares, part of the
reason why these investor relations departments exist within these companies is
specifically to supply investors with information. Fully-armed with information,
we can now evaluate the most favorable scenario for entering one of these
early-stage explorers: after they have been financed and before operational
results are about to be announced.
Extensive
drilling:
The
single most-important aspect of technical understanding which investors need to
acquire in order to competently evaluate any miner not yet in commercial
production is to understand “drilling intercepts” – i.e. the intervals of
mineralization which are revealed in the “core samples” produced by such
drilling. You will not learn that here.
We have
already discussed some aspects of drilling in our previous commentaries, and
plan to put out more detailed material on this subject in the not-too-distant
future. What I will do here is to simply treat these topics in purely
summary form, which presumes an understanding of this technical
subject.
This is
also an area where the old, market adage of “buy on rumor, sell on news” is
especially appropriate guidance. There will be infrequent occasions where we
seek to “buy on news”. If we are especially enthused by particular results, or
we were waiting for some confirmation of some aspect of
mineralization, or we simply think the market is undervaluing the results then
we might decide to buy some shares after a news release on
drilling.
More
typically, however, we will be more likely to “sell on news” here. Indeed, if we
were good enough/lucky enough to buy-in right after a financing, and right
before such news is released, we are very often presented with the opportunity
to make an outstanding trade – and take profits on either all or part of our
position.
For all
“investors” (as opposed to traders), I recommend always placing long-term “sell”
orders with all of their positions (i.e. “good until canceled” orders). These
orders can be split into as many (practical) increments as is desired. This
gives us the opportunity to plan our strategy in advance, rather than seeking to
make (emotional) decisions in “the heat of the moment”.
Decide
what sort of profit-margin you (realistically) would accept to sell your shares.
Keep in mind that even a 25% profit which is made in a few days (or weeks)
projects out to a phenomenal rate of return as an annual rate. Thus my own
strategy is to formulate a short-term price at which I would sell – and then
steadily raise those sell-targets as I hold my stocks for
longer period. In other words, I would be seeking a much higher selling price
for a stock I had held for three months versus one which I had only held for
three weeks.
Conversely, such “news” on drilling can often serve as
an opportune time to exit a company in which we have lost faith/interest. We can
wait for the short-term “pop” we would expect on any decent news, and already
have our sell orders placed in anticipation of such news.
In
general terms, all early-stage drilling conducted by miners seeks to provide
information (and hopefully favorable information) on two aspects of a mineral
deposit: the quantity of mineralization (i.e. tonnages) and the quality of
mineralization (the “grades” of the ore). Naturally this presumes that some
degree of mineralization has already been proven.
If
drilling is being conducted in “virgin” territory, then merely demonstrating any
significant mineralization at all can provide an enormous boost to a miner. The
level of mineralization which needs to be demonstrated in order to “excite” the
market depends on many factors. Thus two early-stage explorers could
(theoretically) produce identical drilling numbers from their separate core
sample, and one of the miners could rise 20% on the news, while the other could
fall 20%.
Certainly investor expectations figure strongly into
this equation. This is one of the reasons why many/most mining investors like to
“surf” stock bulletin-boards, and preferably a site with a large population of
mining investors, such as Stockhouse.com. While the posting on these bulletin boards
must always be taken with the proverbial “grain of salt” regarding the
reliability of information, they
can often provide good barometers of investor “sentiment”.
Once
past the stage of merely finding mineralization, we move into the more detailed
drilling work to which I alluded at the beginning of this section. I will
complete my analysis of miners in the “drilling” stage, and move on to the later
stages of a mining company’s evolution in the next installment of this
series. Silver is king, Go Gold !
G.Sandro pas de copier collé: merci de faire un lien vers ce post. Suivez Hardinvestor sur Twitter et sur Facebook |
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