News MGN: Mines management. fil de suivi

Les posts relatifs à MGN étant vieux, éparpillés et souvent en partie privée, j'ouvre la présente section dédiée à ce titre sous-valorisé aux ressources pharaoniques; attention c'est spéculatif car, d'une part, on reste en phase de fin d'exploration, c'est à dire non génératrice de revenus, d'autre part et par conséquent, elle est en PERTES, et, en 3e lieu,  le projet phare est à fort volume, mais à relativement faible teneur Ag ; donc ça coûte cher à extraire ce qui posera une question de financements et, enfin, il reste des autorisations, notamment environnementales, à obtenir et, en cette matière, quand il y a une surprise, elle est soit très positive... soit, très négative; Bref, vous voilà prévenus.

au Montana Mineralized Material Estimate in accordance with U.S. SEC Industry Guide 7
Tons 81,506,000 Mineralized Material.
Silver Grade  2.04 (Silver ounces per ton)
(Ounces per ton) Copper Grade 0.75%
Cutoff Grade 1.0

, ce qui lui donne un caractère de "marginale" c'est à dire un levier superlatif (dans les deux sens comme on a pu le vérifier       ),  (Bon en termes de densité c'est carrément mieux au Pérou).

Pour ne parler que du projet phare, le BONUS c'est que la teneur en cuivre est considérable, pour ne pas dire impressionnante 231 million ounces of silver and 1.7 billion pounds of copper. 
: Alors, certes, son parcours a été plus que décevant, mais, d'une part, le cours des métaux a été particulièrement défavorable, d'autre part, cette phase non productive coûte la peau des rouleaux sans retour de cash flow pour l'instant, en outre,  il y a eu le financement de 33 forages au Pérou (dont 20 positifs et ayant AUSSI mis en évidence la présence d'OR) ce qui a pesé sur la tréso et, du coup, elle est bradée de chez soldée et les ressources en terre sont incroyables au regard de la très modeste capitalisation boursière, c'est un investissement qui est manifestement risqué mais potentiellement exceptionnel, surtout à ce prix là, pour mémoire: 0.66$ l'action. En même temps, on peut être tenté de se dire que si le projet a survécu à tous ces éléments négatifs, c'est qu'il y a quand même des gens pour y croire, non?
http://finance.yahoo.com/q;_ylt=AuxgOHvsdiMVahWBeNjKD5ILv7gF;_ylu=X3oDMTExbDVqZ2t1BHBvcwM1MQRzZWMDeWZpUXVvdGVzVGFibGUEc2xrA21nbg--?s=MGN

Bref, mollo quand même, mais ça peut le faire...
le projet phare est dans le Montana près de chez CDE (idaho) donc, comme mentionné plus haut, du métal, il y en a...mais elle a aussi d'autres projets dans ses cartons...notamment un GROS au Pérou

http://www.minesmanagement.com/

le projet phare au montana (Montanore) j'aime bien le nom LOL       

Montanore Aperçu du projet
Introduction
Projet Montanore en propriété exclusive de la direction Mines accueille l'un des plus importants gisements d'argent-cuivre du monde contenant la minéralisation in situ estimé à plus de 230 millions d'onces d'argent et près de 2 milliards de livres de cuivre, ne tenant pas compte de dilution ou zones minéralisées sous-économiques.
Le projet a déjà fait l'objet d'une ingénierie, et est conçu avec une capacité de production initiale d'environ 12 500 tonnes par jour estimés à produise 8 millions d'onces d'argent et 60 millions de livres de cuivre, avec la possibilité d'ajouter d'augmenter la production.
Excellente infrastructure
Le projet est situé à proximité de l'infrastructure nécessaire pour le développement et l'exploitation de la mine, y compris l'autoroute, chemin de fer, énergie à bas prix et de l'offre de main-d'œuvre.
District de classe mondiale d'argent
Situé dans le nord-ouest du Montana, le Montanore fort existe dans l'une des régions les plus prolifiques d'argent dans le monde près de l'Idaho Argent District Nord, à seulement 40 miles de là.
Le Montanore est situé à l'extrémité nord d'une tendance qui s'étend au sud de la Coeur d'Alene Argent District, qui a toujours produit plus de 1 milliard d'onces d'argent.
Géologiquement, le dépôt est classé comme un dépôt d'argent-cuivre statabound roches sédimentaires, et est l'un des trois principaux gisements de la région, y compris la mine Troy et le dépôt Rock Creek.

sur le Pérou justement, le Projet ESTRELLA .
http://www.minesmanagement.com/estrella-overview.php

On notera avec intérêt et gourmandise que ce projet reste "open" au nord ouest, ç l'ouest et au sud ouest....donc, le suspens (dont le moins qu'on puisse dire est qu'il a été entretenu avec brio  ) pourrait s'avérer TRES rentable...en attendant on a bouffé la grenouille...  

LES FAITS MARQUANTS DE FORAGE HISTORIQUES
Exploration antérieurs sur la propriété inclus un vaste échantillonnage et de la géophysique de surface, et 22 forages au diamant et 11 trous inverse de forage à circulation; tout mais deux trous rencontré une importante minéralisation d'or et d'argent.Sur les 33 forages complétés, 20 contiennent des intervalles minéralisés de plus de 30 mètres de longueur avec des teneurs du minerai de 0,4 grammes par tonne (gpt) or équivalent ou supérieur. Parmi ces vingt forages, l'intervalle minéralisé moyenne était de 123,8 mètres (m) de longueur, à des teneurs moyennes de 23,6 gpt argent (Ag) et 0,34 gpt d'or (Au). Faits saillants du forage précédent comprennent DDH-E18 qui a 317 m contenant 34,6 gpt Ag et 0,30 gpt Au de 4,5 mètres de profondeur et DDH-E12 qui avait 70,5 m à 71,8 gpt Ag et 0,84 gpt Au de 144 mètres de profondeur. En effectuant des forages au diamant supplémentaires sur la propriété, la Société cherche à identifier les zones à plus haute teneur de la minéralisation et extensions possibles de la minéralisation connue existant. De plus, MMI a identifié des cibles d'exploration supplémentaires sur la propriété par une réinterprétation des données géophysiques existantes.

 et une news motivante sur le Pérou, une...  

http://goldinvestingnews.com/30660/mines-management-mgn-peru-gold-silver.html?utm_source=Resource+Investing+News&utm_campaign=5a3ad4a283-RSS_EMAIL_CAMPAIGN&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_f83d87db0f-5a3ad4a283-241109429[/b]

Oui des explo et des dev avec des ressources pharaoniques en terre, on en a connu quelques unes ... je te fais pas un dessin. Désolé d'être lourdingue mais :

Citation :

it doesn’t matter how many ounces you say you have in the ground, what matters is how many ounces you can get out of the ground at a profit.

et depuis les nombreuses années que MGN a des ressources en terre ... elles sont toujours en terre.

En plus, les projets avec grosses ressources/petites teneurs/gros capex : personne veut financer ces dernières années (voir detour, novagold, northern dynasty, seabridge, exeter, ...)

Bref, je préfère les petites productrices qui font déjà du cash et qui sont bien gérées : suivez mon regard : RIOM, BTG, AG voire même FSM ou SLW dans les royalties.

Honnetement, je pense que la proba que MGN ait un jour une mine active/rentable est proche de zéro ... ce qui ne veut bien sûr pas dire qu'il ne sera jamais possible de faire de l'argent en la tradant, simplement les proba ne sont pas de notre côté ;-)

Citation :

Si vous prenez position dans des situations exceptionnelles, vous gagnerez … exceptionnellement

C" est pas dénué de bon sens et c'est pour ça que je préviens que c'est spéculatif

dans un joli volume,
que se passe-t-il?

http://finance.yahoo.com/q;_ylt=Am5eEi9ewj0DFpeU3.P3lunkNbkF;_ylu=X3oDMTExaWRydTJzBHBvcwM4MwRzZWMDeWZpUXVvdGVzVGFibGUEc2xrA21nbg--?s=MGN

Jason Hommel a posté un avis favorable cette nuit;

http://silverstockreport.com/2014/mgn.html
            

j'ai le cul bordé de nouilles, j'en ai racheté pour moyenner juste avant Noël, à 0.49$

cloture à 0.76 +12.33%

Mines Management
(Ticker: MGN)
Silver Stock Report
by Jason Hommel, February 4, 2014


Mines Management. I own shares. The company has not paid me to write this article.

www.minesmanagement.com (ticker: MGN)

The market cap is $22 million, at $.77/share

http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=mgn&ql=1

Mines management, once in full production, can gross $264 million or more per year for 30 years.

From http://www.minesmanagement.com/montanore-overview.php

"The project has already undergone extensive engineering, and is designed with an initial production capacity of approximately 12,500 tons per day estimated to yield 8 million ounces of silver and 60 million pounds of copper, with the added potential to increase production."

And what's the projected gross profits? The company estimates an operating cash cost of $22.51/tonne. (page 10) of the Company Presentation. But the ore contains $90/tonne worth of silver and copper. (page 9) of the Company Presentation.pdf

The implied math: $90 - $22.51 = $67.49/tonne x 12,500 tonnes/day x 365 days/year x 6/7 days/week = $264 million/year.

Again. I own shares. Mines Management has not paid me to write about the company.

Nouvel article de Hommel qui semble craquer sur les charmes de MGN;
j'ai du bol, j'ai rechargé pile au point bas, et depuis, elle ne cesse de monter LOL

MGN: $1/share to $20 or more?
(Mines Management Stock)
Silver Stock Report
by Jason Hommel, February 13, 2014

www.minesmanagement.com (ticker: MGN)

Mines Management. I own shares. The company has not paid me in any way, neither in stock or cash.

Mines Management stock is trading around $.98/share as of Feb 13, 2014.

Here are three ways to get a projected share price for an advanced stage mining project stock such as Mines Management.

1. Net present Value of projects (NPV).
2. Comparative value of resources. (resource ratio)
3. Expected Earnings & Price to Earnings ratio. (PE Ratio)

1. NPV: price target $24/share
2. Resource leverage: price target $4.25/share, to compare with other stocks, and to give us a target where it may make sense to diversify into other similar stocks.
3. Expected PE ratio: price target $45.55/share

I will show how I arrived at those values, below.

Each of the three ways has benefits and drawbacks.

1. The NPV method is the easiest. You compare the market cap to the net present value. The drawback is that you have to rely upon the bean counters in the company, and so you don't always really know how they calculated their NPV.

2. The resource ratio is next. You compare the cost of the company to what you get in the ground, and compare across companies, too. This is an attempt to compare apples to oranges in many cases, as some resources are barely economic, whereas other resources can be wildly profitable. But in a bull market of rising metals prices, what used to be barely economic becomes wildly profitable.

3. Expected Earnings and PE Ratios is probably the most realistic, but it's also the most difficult, because you have to try to factor in so many unexpected and unanticipated costs. Also, companies typically understate "cash costs" as they don't count administration costs, marketing costs, exploration costs, permitting costs, or capital costs, nor acquisition costs in the cash cost which includes only the cost of actual ore mining. But in the real world, mining can't happen without all the other costs as well. They also might just lie about the cash costs, making this even more difficult. This also breaks down and fails as a method for two other reasons, namely, small companies typically never achive the standard PE ratio of 10, maybe only reaching 3 to 5. And also, and in a bull market, PE Ratios can reach from as high as 20 to much higher.

The following calculations are how I arrived at three projected stock share prices for Mines Management using all three ways.

1. NPV method.

Net Present Value about $700 million. Source: page 10 of the Company Presentation.pdf

MGN Current market cap: $28.4 million at $.98/share.

Math: $700 million / $28.4 million x $.98/share = $24/share

2. Resource Ratio method.

MGN: $28.4 million market cap.

Silver Resources: 231.4 million oz. silver resources (Canadian NI 43-101) Source: p. 9 of the Company Presentation.pdf

Math: $28.4 million market cap / 231.4 million oz. of silver = cost of $.12 cents per oz. of silver in the ground when you buy stock. The leverage?

With silver at $20.43/oz., (20.43/.12) you get 170 ounces of silver in the ground for every ounce of silver's worth of stock.

That's leverage of 170 to 1! That's not counting the copper values, which are worth more than the silver. If the copper were counted as "silver equivalent" ounces, then the leverage would be over 350 to 1!

Comparison: SSRI has a $797 million market cap with 1,520 million ounces of proven, probable, measured, indicated and inferred resources of silver. That's $.52/oz.

Based on that comparison, MGN stock could rise from .12 to .52, or from $.98/share to $4.25/share.

(But I think the Mines Management Montanore project is better than SSRI's key project. Both have a $700 million NPV, but the cost to start SSRI's big Pitarrilla project is more than the Montanore project. Also, the Pitarrilla project is 3 oz./tonne silver but with .75% zinc which is half the price of copper, whereas the Mines Management project is 2 oz./tonne silver but with .75% copper, which is twice the value of zinc.)

3. Expected P/E ratio method.

Mines management, once in full production, can gross $264 million or more per year for 30 years.

From http://www.minesmanagement.com/montanore-overview.php

"The project has already undergone extensive engineering, and is designed with an initial production capacity of approximately 12,500 tons per day estimated to yield 8 million ounces of silver and 60 million pounds of copper, with the added potential to increase production."

And what's the projected gross profits? The company estimates an operating cash cost of $22.51/tonne. (page 10) of the Company Presentation. But the ore contains $90/tonne worth of silver and copper. (page 9) of the Company Presentation.pdf

The implied math: $90 - $22.51 = $67.49/tonne x 12,500 tonnes/day x 365 days/year x 6/7 days/week = $264 million/year.

Expected P/E would be 10.

That implies a market cap of $2.64 billion.

The Capex, which is the amount of money Mines Management needs to raise to start mining is $552 million, from p. 10 of their Company Presentation.pdf.

I assume the company will raise most of that money by about the time the market cap is about $500 million, to increase dilution by double. They could also raise the money through debt financing, or through pre sales or futures contracts of silver, but that has caused the bankruptcy and failure of other mining projects, and I hope will be avoided. vSo, from $28.4 million market cap to $552 million market cap then raise $552 million, then market cap goes from $1.1 billion to $2.64 billion.

This implies a stock price rising from 552/28.4 x .98 = $19.05/share. Then, shares double, and the market cap is $1104 million. Then, 2640/1104 x $19.05 = $45.55/share ultimate price target with earnings at $264 million/year.

That assumes silver prices remain about $20.43/oz. as they are today.

So, to sum up, we have three methods of measuring stock price targets.

1. NPV: price target $24/share
2. Resource leverage: price target $4.25/share, to compare with other stocks.
3. Expected PE ratio: price target $45.55/share

Oh. And a fourth way, the easiest of all. There is an analyst at yahoo finance that is projecting $4/share. See the page here: http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ao?s=MGN+Analyst+Opinion

I assume that analyst is using the resource leverage industry comparison method of analysis.

Mines Management. I own shares. The company has not paid me in any way, neither in stock or cash.

Mines Management: to Glencore
(Ticker: MGN)
Silver Stock Report
by Jason Hommel, March 4th, 2014


sent to: info@glencorexstrata.com

I own Mines Management Stock; and nobody has compensated me, nor contacted me, nor contracted with me, to write this letter.

In 1992, twenty two years ago, Noranda did exploration drilling and final permitting for the Montana based silver/copper Montanore project, which is now owned by Mines Management: ticker MGN, a tiny market cap stock of $43 million dollars. Noranda in 2002, due to low metals prices, walked away from the project, which now contains $10 billion worth of silver and copper, because silver and copper have moved up in price, a lot.

So. Why hasn't Noranda, who drilled up the project, bought back in, or at least bought stock in Mines Management?

Noranda merged with Falconbridge in 2005.
Xstrata bought out Falconbridge in 2006.
Glencore bought out Xstrata in 2013.

Thus, the decision makers at Noranda, who knew about the Montanore project at Mines Management, are likely no longer making the decisions. This was also 12 years ago that they walked away.

Mines Management stock is trading around $1.50/share as of March 3, 2014.

Here are three ways to value the stock:

1. NPV: price target $27.5/share
2. Resource leverage: 113:1 or 250:1
3. Expected PE ratio: price target $41/share

Here is how I arrived at those values:

1. NPV method:

Net Present Value about $800 million. Source: page 10 of: http://www.minesmanagement.com/images/pdfs/2013/mmi%20presentation%202013-10-1-final.pdf

MGN Current market cap: $43.5 million at $1.50/share.

Math: $800 million / $43.5 million x $1.50/share = $27.5/share

2. Resource Ratio method.

MGN: $43.5 million market cap.

Silver Resources: 231.4 million oz. silver resources (Canadian NI 43-101) Source: p. 9 of the Company Presentation.pdf

Math: $43.5 million market cap / 231.4 million oz. of silver = cost of $.19 cents per oz. of silver in the ground when you buy stock. The leverage?

With silver at $21.50/oz., (21.50/.19) you get 113 ounces of silver in the ground for every ounce of silver's worth of stock.

That's leverage of 113 to 1. That's not counting the copper values, which are worth more than the silver. If the copper were counted as "silver equivalent" ounces, then the leverage would be about 250 to 1.

3. Expected P/E ratio method.

Mines management, once in full production, can gross about $238 million (more or less) per year for 30 years.

From http://www.minesmanagement.com/montanore-overview.php

"The project has already undergone extensive engineering, and is designed with an initial production capacity of approximately 12,500 tons per day estimated to yield 8 million ounces of silver and 60 million pounds of copper, with the added potential to increase production."

And what's the projected gross profits? The company estimates an operating cash cost of $22.51/tonne. (page 10) of the Company Presentation. But the ore contains $90/tonne worth of silver and copper. (page 9) of the Company Presentation.pdf

The implied math: $90 - $22.51 = $67.49/tonne x 12,500 tonnes/day x 365 days/year x 6/7 days/week x 90% recoveries = $238 million/year.

Expected P/E would be 10.

That implies a market cap of $2.38 billion.

The Capex, which is the amount of money Mines Management needs to raise to start mining is $552 million, from p. 10 of their Company Presentation.pdf.

I assume the company will raise most of that money by about the time the market cap is about $550 million, to increase dilution by double. They could also raise the money through debt financing, or partnering with a major, or through pre sales or futures contracts of silver, but that has caused the bankruptcy and failure of other mining projects, and I hope will be avoided. So, as the market cap rises from $43.5 million market cap to $552 million market cap then the company issues stock raising $552 million, then the market cap goes from $1.1 billion to $2.38 billion at by full production.

This implies a stock price rising from 552/43.5 x $1.50/share = $19/share. Then, shares double, and the market cap is $1104 million. Then, 2380/1104 x $19 = $41/share ultimate price target with earnings at $238 million/year.

That assumes silver prices remain about $21.50/oz. as they are today.

So, to sum up, we have three methods of measuring stock price value.

1. NPV: price target $27.50/share
2. Resource leverage: 113:1 for silver, about 250:1 including copper.
3. Expected PE ratio: price target $41/share

Oh. And a fourth way, the easiest of all. There is an analyst at yahoo finance that is projecting $4/share. See the page here: http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ao?s=MGN+Analyst+Opinion

=====

Historic share price moves in the last ten years for Mines Management stock also provide good share price targets:

In 2003, when silver prices began to move up, then things got exciting. Investors jumped into Mines Management, driving the stock price up from under $1/share to $6-9/share between 2004 to 2006.

By 2008, there was a market crash in silver from $20 back down to $9. So the stock collapsed along with nearly all other silver stocks. This led Mines Management stock to drop to $1.40 by 2009.

Mines Management stock peaked again up to $4.18/share in 2011 when silver flirted with the $50/oz.

Since 2011, silver has been in a bear market, losing value for nearly three years now. And Mines Management stock has dropped along with that decline.

Investors lost patience, and counted opportunity costs, and got discouraged, and chased the latest trends, and forgot things.

I think they forgot that silver at $20/oz. today is not like silver at $5/oz.!

And it seems silver stock investors forgot that what was once barely economic and barely profitable at $5/oz. is now wildly profitable and wildly economic with silver at $20.

Also, over the last ten years, copper prices have dramatically increased from about $1/lb. to over $3/lb.

I believe that people who buy MGN today at $1.50/share will likely see the stock rise to $5 to $10/share quickly over the next year or so. Or, at least, more quickly than it moved last time in the 2003-2004 time frame.

What I really like about MGN today is that silver prices don't need to move up. $20/oz. will be wildly profitable.

===== Company Insiders:

I also like that company insiders hold so much stock. This tells me that they believe in the company.

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/mh?s=MGN+Major+Holders

Glenn Dobbs holds over 1.7 million shares as of Nov 20, 2013. This means that his interests are mostly likely going to be aligned with shareholders.

I also like the Institutional Holders listed. I like Sprott Inc, and Cambridge Investment Research Advisors--they both promote mining companies!

It seems that it's either silver industry insiders, or big money outsiders are among the top ten institutional holders. Many of the big money outsiders are multi billion dollar funds. Any one of them could step up and provide the funding, either in part or in whole, to finance the company's mine construction needs going forward.

AQR Capital Management, LLC has $92 billion under management.

Northern Trust has assets of $97 billion, and manages $807 billion.

Calpers manages $257 billion

Vanguard Group, Inc. (The) manages $2 trillion.

Bank of New York Mellon Corporation has $1.4 trillion in assets under management and $27 trillion in assets under custody and administration.

See the list of major holders here: http://finance.yahoo.com/q/mh?s=MGN+Major+Holders

For such a tiny market cap company of $43 million, to have come to the attention of all of these large funds, enough for them to actually buy stock, is impressive and noteworthy.

Et bien Hommel, il est à fond sur MGN. Même s'il est pas payé par MGN, ça me rassure pas spécialement de voir une société autant "promue" tous les trois jours ...

Mines Management Inc. Reports 2014 Financial Results and Montanore Permitting Update

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/mines-management-inc-reports-2014-234202049.html

édit 14 septembre 2016 :
fusion avec Hécla Mining actée au 14 Septembre 2016

http://ir.hecla-mining.com/file/Index?KeyFile=35866582

les actionnaires de MGN échangeront chaque action MGN contre 0.2218 action d'Hécla Mining
http://ir.hecla-mining.com/file/Index?KeyFile=34460515