réserves d'or des banques centrales, / FMI n'autorise plus la double comptabilité des stocks

Stocks d'or des banques centrales et nouvelles normes comptables du FMI: le rapport Blanchard est bien explosif


Marie avait posté à ce sujet, mais je ne retrouve pas la file, je vous mets ça en forum privé pour le week end, on le basculera en public ensuite, n'hésitez pas à commenter please:

1. IMF Has Not Adopted Accounting Changes to Gold Loans

By Jon A. Nones
25 Jan 2007 at 04:06 PM EST

St. LOUIS (Error! Hyperlink reference not valid.) -- Earlier this week Blanchard & Co., a New Orleans-based bullion and coin dealer, released a press statement saying the International Monetary Fund (IMF) has adopted a number of accounting changes to the lending of gold reserves by central banks, and will begin implementing those changes in the coming year. IMF told Resource Investor today otherwise

http://www.resourceinvestor.com/pebble.asp?relid=28416

2. UBS reported the following from London this morning:

�� No changes yet to central bank gold accounting IMF

The International Monetary Fund said on Thursday it has still not decided on new accounting guidelines for central bank gold loans, denying a claim that it had already made up its mind on this issue. " At this time, the IMF has not adopted any new accounting changes for the recording of gold loans," the international lender said in a statement. It said a review on the topic was under way and would lead to the publication of a new draft balance of payments manual within the next two months. The IMF said it made the statement in response to media inquiries about a Jan. 22 press release from Blanchard and Company, a New Orleans-based dealer

in rare coins and precious metals, which claimed the IMF had already made the changes. Central banks are the world's largest holders of gold. A number of them agreed in 1999 to limit sales to prop up the precious metal's price after it fell under $300 an ounce.

Under the latest agreement, 15 European central banks agreed to cap total sales at 2,500 tonnes between 2004 and 2009, compared with 2,000 tonnes in the previous five years. However, there is a substantial and largely unreported gold lending market in which central banks are major players, loaning their bullion for a fee to generate income. As a result, accounting guideline changes encouraging central banks to shed more light on lending activities would represent a major improvement in transparency, Blanchard said. Gold loans are currently included in central bank reserves. The IMF said the review was taking place as part of an update to its balance of payments manual, which provides a comprehensive theoretical guide for IMF members.

To aid transparency, the IMF also published a number of papers that have been generated by the process, including work by its Reserve Assets Technical Exports Group that indicated a number of amendments are being discussed. One outcome paper dated July 2006 noted that experts had agreed loaned gold that was available on demand to a central bank could be included in reserve assets, but should be removed if it was not available upon demand. A subsequent paper issued in September discussed excluding gold swaps from reserves and counting them, under certain conditions, as reserve-related liabilities. A separate, unrelated review by a committee including European Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet and former Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan is examining longterm financing options for the IMF. Some European members have suggested revaluing the IMF's own gold reserves to boost income, but the United States has said it does not favour this option. The committee is expected to present its report within the next few months (Reuters).

3. The Gartman Letter this morning:

Further concerning gold, the "conspiratorialists" among us are having a field day with the news that the International Monetary Fund has adopted what some are calling a "landmark accounting change" concerning the manner in which Central Banks account for their gold loans. The IMF now says that the Central Banks cannot include the amount of gold they have lent out and sold into the market as a portion of their reserve assets. GATA now feels vindicated, and to some degree it has been; however, we suspect that the "conspiratorialists" among us thought that this announcement would send gold soaring; instead, gold faltered. That we found rather interesting indeed.

Points to be made on the above commentaries:

1. It is no surprise to GATA that the IMF would go into some sort of damage control over this matter. It is about the GOLD ATOMIC BOMB. Chris Powell said as much when the initial IMF gold accounting change proposal was first discovered last year by Blanchard and company, having been written by IMF staffers.

2. The IMF is a large organization. Most of those in that organization have no clue what is really going on. They don’t understand the motive behind including gold loans as part of reserves. Only those at the very top appreciate the real story. It is very likely that those in the know are now getting wind of the changes in the works, and have raised some objections.

3. Blanchard (a savvy Neal Ryan did the work) WAS TOLD the reserve asset committee had already made the decision to separate gold loans from gold reserves, but the implementation of these changes WOULD TAKE AS LONG AS A YEAR. Why it would take a year to say is what is beyond me, but that is the supposed deal.

Blanchard was informed by committee members that the issue has been decided, the debate they are undertaking now is how to implement those changes, not if the changes are accepted.

4. Regardless of what was decided, or the outcome, you would think the dopey gold world would be jumping up and down for joy and urging the IMF on to set the record straight. All we are talking about here is the truth. What is wrong about knowing the truth about the true status of central bank gold holdings? The World Gold Council ought to be all over this. Yep, we know … that would be too much to ask of those lightweights.

5. As far as what Dennis G said about gold running up, I said once the facts were known the price of gold would double … and I stand by that. The key is the investment world understanding the central banks really only have half the gold they say they have. He said, she said stuff about the changes of the rules is NOT the central banks reporting the real deal.
6. The reasoning for the "price doubling call" is quite simple. The revelations would:

*Show gold demand over the past decade has been FAR higher than reported.

*The lack of true central bank gold reserves would make what is left in the central banks that much more valuable … half the gold held, double the value of what is actually in the vaults.

*It wouldn’t take that much money to BUY UP what is left.

*Investors would realize that the central banks DO NOT have enough gold left to manipulate the price to any significant degree. Indeed, the revelation would likely spur other central banks to BUY. As far as the ones who still have it, why would they want to sell? The yearly supply/demand deficit is 1,000 to 1,500 tonnes, which has been met over the years by the central banks surreptitiously feeding loaned gold into the marketplace via bullion banks, like Goldman Sachs. Once that source evaporates, the price MUST explode to bring the market into supply/demand equilibrium.

*There is NO WAY the central banks can get their lent gold back without driving the price bonkers, not with a market which is in a severe deficit.

lire la suitepost suivant

info capitale
voir aussi la file concernant la double comptabilité des réserves d'or des banques centrales



comme le dit Murphy , la question n'est plus maintenant de savoir si cette double comptabilité des stocks d'or va perdurer ... mais dans combien de temps cette décision va prendre effet ...car manifestement cela va etre un gros choc de découvrir le montant des réserves d'or réelles des Banques centrales ...

on comprend bien qu'elles retardent au maximum cette révélation ..
on comprend beaucoup moins pourquoi les producteurs d'or et l'univers des investisseurs sur l'or feignent de ne pas s'interesser à ce développement qui est une vérirable bombe ..

IMF gold trading rules changes are set to boost gold price

http://www.ameinfo.com/108894.html

The International Monetary Fund is in the process of revising the laws that govern the trading of gold by the world's central banks, which will radically change the ability of central bankers to suppress the gold price, a major factor depressing the price of the yellow metal that has been an open secret for years.

This sort of systemic market reform will likely have a huge impact on the gold market. It is like the "Big Bang" changes to world stock markets that started in the 1980s and led to an explosion in equity ownership and higher price-to-earnings ratios.

That gold prices have been artificially depressed for decades is not hard to establish. Consider the nominal peak oil price last year of $78 a barrel, twice the previous nominal peak value reached in 1980. Gold by comparison hit $725 an ounce last year yet is still below its nominal peak value in 1980.

What has been happening is that central bankers have been swapping and loaning gold in the gold market to keep the price down to produce another false indication that inflation is under control.

Some analysts allege that they have actually now lent considerably more gold than they have in their vaults, so the world's gold's reserves are smaller than reported; and the lack of gold audits from central banks just adds to this suspicion.

.... IMF Review

The IMF has been reviewing all aspects of the gold trade by central banks for the fifth edition of its Balance of Payments Manual, which includes the regulations governing gold swaps and loans. IMF officials told ResourceInvestor.com that a draft edition will be posted for worldwide comment within two months.

It remains to be seen whether the central banks now manage to sabotage this attempt to control their alleged gold market manipulation. But the very publication of the draft rules, which have clearly been endorsed internally by the IMF, throws down a major challenge to the banks.

For gold traders and even the general public, the suppression of the gold market is pretty obvious. Market news that should move the gold price up is often anticipated by the central banks, which appear to shuffle a few transactions between themselves to send the price in the opposite direction.

... Gold Cartel to Fall?

But such are the growing size and interest in the gold market that participants are increasingly ganging up in protest at such blatant manipulation that would not be tolerated in any other financial market. It looks as though the IMF has decided that enough is enough and decided to call it a day.

The ending of any price suppression or cartel in a market is usually a bullish signal. What would the gold price be in a free market without the central banks swapping and loaning gold among themselves?

Well, it does not take much imagination to see that a rebalancing of gold's position relative to other assets and currencies would follow. That the IMF has now put the gold market out for open discussion is clearly the first step toward a new era for the yellow metal.

How long that era will take to arrive is still a matter of conjecture. But the idea of stocking up on gold while prices are still low has intrinsic appeal; or buy silver or other precious metals that would also rise alongside the gold price, perhaps even higher.

On IMF gold accounting changes:

Bill,
I think the noise coming out of the IMF to promote greater transparency in Central Bank gold accounting is very significant, but NOT because it will be implemented soon enough to materially influence gold's price. Like bureaucrats the world over, the IMF's employees are advanced degree holders in covering their own rears. If they announce that there is a problem with CB gold accounting that really means: there is a problem with CB gold accounting that can't be covered up much longer. I do not expect the rules to change before the crisis hits, but when the crisis does hit the IMF President can stand up and gravely announce that his organization has already proposed a solution. This discussion is a signal that the CB's are running out of gold to lease now.

On another topic, Jennifer Barry continues to present a compelling case that the Chinese are using their trillion dollar "reserves" to quietly buy up as many strategic commodities as they can. It reminds me of a school carnival. During the day there are lots of games and contests that give out coupons, or scrip, to winners. This scrip can be turned in at the prize booth for toys, etc. The trick is that when the carnival is over the scrip becomes worthless, so the kids have to make sure that their winnings are all spent before the toys run out or the prize booth closes down. Near the end, the children will take anything, no matter how useless, to avoid being stuck with scrip when time runs out.

This is analogous to the Chinese situation. They have lots of scrip that must be spent before the consumer carnival closes down. If they can somehow manipulate the markets to keep the show going awhile longer that buys them time to keep spending their accumulated scrip. For the Chinese, the best prizes are probably materials that will allow them to keep their economy running later on. Commodities like nickel, zinc and copper are at the top of the list. At some point in the future, though, they will probably throw money at nearly any item of value in anticipation of the game ending. That will be another big clue that the jig is just about up.

For those people with extra scrip (paper money), they might do well to exchange as much of it as they can while they can. Got Gold?
Best wishes,
Peter R.

FMI, nouvelle comptabilité des réserves d'or des banques centrales



c'est une grande 1ere et c'est donc en route, ICI ET MAINTENANT
1er rapport du FMI qui réglemente la comptabilisation des loans ( prêts d'or) des Banques centrales.. une sorte de manuel à l'usage des BC





bien évidemment, les conséquences, comme nous l'avons déja dit ici plusieurs fois, se feront sentir plus tard ...
dés que seront mis à jour les VERITABLES réserves d'or des banques centrales, une fois cette double comptabilité des stocks d'or, interdite

le Gata pense que 10 à 15.000 Tonnes d'or soit 320 à 470 millions d'onces d'or vont ainsi disparaitre des chiffres trompeurs officiels des stocks d'or des banques centrales

ça n'est pas rien
on va bien rire.. avec les chiffres du WGC et autres gros collabos qui n'ont JAMAIS tenu compte de la double comptabilité des réserves d'or ... !!

bref on va être fixés dans les mois qui viennent .. et en attendant - pas un hasard ça - caballas team a de plus en plus de mal à "intervenir" efficacement sur ce marché ..

source midas:

There is even more bullish news, which no one outside of the GATA/Blanchard camp truly understands, or appreciates yet. The IMF has moved forward regarding the true status of central bank gold. From Resource Investor:
IMF Posts First Draft of Changes to Gold Loan Accounting
By Jon A. Nones
21 Mar 2007 at 12:00 PM GMT-04:00St. LOUIS -- This week, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) posted its first draft of the sixth edition to the "Balance of Payments and International Investment Position Manual."Among the revisions were accounting changes for gold loans, which are not publicly disclosed at present, stating that all gold loans should be broken out into their own category to avoid double-counting of reserves.
The IMF’s Balance of Payments Manualgoverns the accounting and reporting functions of central banks through a set of rules and regulations. The manual regulates how reporting should be handled across a large spectrum of issues, which includes gold swaps and loans.

http://www.resourceinvestor.com/pebble.asp?relid=30006
-END-
There will be plenty of time to get into this in the months ahead. But, if implemented and ALL central banks comply, the price of gold will rally many hundreds of dollars per ounce because it will become apparent the central banks have far less gold than known. How much less?
*The talk in RI article is that the range of central bank gold loans is 50 to 95 million ounces of gold. The difference of the two amounts to nearly half of the mine production in a year.
*The GATA camp believes, even with hedge reductions, that amount is 10,000 to 15,000 tonnes of gold out on loan, or 320 million ounces to 470 million ounces.
When looking at the difference between the GATA camp and that of the mainstream gold world, it is easy to surmise what the price of gold will do should it become apparent that we are even CLOSE to being right, and so far, little that GATA has discovered over the years has been shown to be wrong, by ANYONE.