1-Cot Goldje vous invite vivement à consulter chez Sinclair les commentaires et graphs de Norcini dont bref résumé ci dessous
commentaires Cots $, yen et gold / Norcini
- cot $/ le rebond est du uniquement à du short covering des l spécs ( hausse de 80 à 82 en 2 semaines)
même les funds qui ne sont que des momentums joueurs, ne vont pas passer long ... donc ils vt reconstruire leur short position et le $ devrait à nouveau baisser
- yen
pour la 1ere fois de l'année, les funds sont net longs et les commerciaux net short
ça apris 8 semaines pour faire regagner au yen, ce qu'il avait perdu en 1 an !
les spécs ont été virés de leur short position ( liée au yen carry trade) avec une rapidité inouie .. et ça a du couter un max de fric
est ce le début de la fin du carry trade ( si les spécs restent long ) ou cela vat'il se réinverser?
- gold
ici aussi changements importants
open interest atteint des points bas inédits depuis janv 2007
si l'on considére les l specs et leur BRUTE long position, celle ci atteint des points bas extremes (de 30 mois, niveau de fev 2005 / gold à 430 $ )..
avec un tel tableau ( dollar vulnérable, point bas majeur des gold positions, et retour d'une saisonnalité favorable )
c'est le moment ou jamais d'être long sur le gold
http://www.jsmineset.com/cwsimages/Miscfiles/5096_Charts_for_8-24-2007_COT.pdfhttp://www.jsmineset.com/cwsimages/Miscfiles/5097_Charts_for_8-24-2007_Part_2.pdfregardez entre autre l'allure ETF gold et la tronche des spréads 10 ans / 3mois !
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Posted On: Friday, August 24, 2007, 6:44:00 PM EST
Market Commentary From Trader Dan
Author: Dan Norcini
Dear CIGAs,
Another trading week has come to a close and with that we get the usual Friday afternoon Commitments of Traders report (COT) from the CFTC. There are several notable developments that occurred over the last reporting period (Tuesday of last week thru Tuesday of this week).
The first is in the dollar. As you know we have seen the dollar move up from below the critical 80 level to the 82 level in two weeks’ time. The COT data reveals that this entire move was the result of massive short covering by the speculative fund community. It was not the rebuilding of new longs among that group. Simply put, even the fund specs who are strictly momentum players and rarely if ever give fundamentals a second thought could not be enticed into moving to the long side of the dollar. That alone is quite ominous for the dollar’s well being moving forward. This week’s activity in the dollar resulted in it giving back nearly all of the gains of the previous week. Rest assured that the funds are rebuilding their shorts – that alone is sufficient reason for me to want to be long the gold market especially since any overhand of excess short positions are now gone from the speculative side and the dollar is less than 80 points away from a new decade low. Now that Goldman has issued an extremely bearish report on the dollar, it is difficult to see where the buying to support it is going to be coming from since GS is pretty much a proxy for the rest of the investment bank community.
Secondly, the yen has seen a massive shift in the internal composition of traders’ commitments. For the first time in over a year, the funds are now net long (option positions not included) with the commercial category actually net short. You have to go back to June of last year to witness such an event. To put things into a bit of perspective, it took the yen exactly eight weeks to gain back everything it lost in 53 weeks! The sheer speed and ferocious rapidity with which the funds were squeezed out of their short positions that were tied to the yen carry trade is almost beyond comprehension. I for one still marvel at it all when you consider the sums of money that must be involved in this strategy.
It is going to be quite a treat for those of us who love markets to see how this unfolds further as we move into the final quarter of the year. Will the spec funds reopen the yen carry for business once again or have they been burned badly enough to play it more conservative? Could we actually see the yen begin moving higher against the dollar with the funds on the long side? Who knows- but we will certainly have a bird’s eye view of market history.
Lastly, and perhaps even more importantly for those of us in the honest money camp, gold also has seen a near seismic shift in its composition over the last few weeks. Open interest has steadily bled down to the point where it is at levels not seen since January of this year. You can see on the charts where the various players are positioned and the extent of that positioning. This week I altered the usual composition of the gold chart to point out something I consider significant – that is the extent of the trading funds’ LONG position size. Notice carefully that I did not say their Net Long position but rather their LONG position. The unwinding of the yen carry trade and the resultant unthinking selling of gold and other assets to raise cash has dropped the fund long position to the lowest level in 30 months. You have to go back to February 2005 to find a smaller long exposure by the fund category to the gold market. Gold was trading near the $430 level way back then.
At the risk of seemingly repeating myself these past few weeks, large spec long-side interest in gold is at levels that would justify a long position in gold for contrarian players especially with the dollar looking quite vulnerable to a downside washout. With the seasonal tendency for gold to begin moving up as it comes into the fourth quarter of the year and with such lethargic interest heretofore among the speculative community for the long side of this market, the urge to buy gold would seem to this trader to be irresistible!
Dan
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Pour ma part, ci dessous 2 graphes d'illustration
graphe cot gold et spot juxtaposés :
. l'open interest a perdu 241 Tonnes depuis son dernier top d'il y a 5 semaines ..niveau pas vu depuis janv 2007
les niveaux atteints par les net positions des intervenants sont au niveau d'octobre 2006
et c'est pire encore si on considére la brut long position des l specs ( non portée sur ce graphique : niveau fév 2005/ GOLD à 430 $) ce qui indiquerait qu'un surcroit baissier de cette catégorie ne peut venir que de shorts supplémentaires des techs funds
large spéc : ratio net long position / total open interestun double bottom sur la ligne bleue est plus que plausible
la sem des cots commence avec l'attaque magistrale des 15 et 16 et se termine le 21 avec un début de reprise
le 24 ( donc hors cots ) gold avait récupéré toutes les pertes de la semaine en question.. ce qui n'est pas encore le cas pour silver
on est bel et bien en zone d'achat majeur ( presque pour gold et extramajeur pour silver ) et
nos ennuis sont presque terminés .. mais amah on pourrait bien avoir un dernier raid baissier gold est plus fort que silver, mais n'a pas encore atteint niveau suffisant pour faire double bottom ( voir graphe numéro 2 ci dessus) )
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