GS tocom +cash flow et valeur liquidative

**marie** Skipper Inscription : 05/02/2005 Messages : 20139

la net short position GS tocom atteint de nouveaux plus bas .. le 13 aout 2008
et Adrian Douglas fait voler en éclat les discours qui font état du pognon que GS se serait fait sur ce coup .. ( voir graphes 2 et 3 )
les choses sont parfaitement limpides , cette short position initiée début 2006 est totalement perdante... et chacun en tirera les conclusions qui s'imposent ... sur les motivations de GS qui ne sont visiblement pas de faire du pognon avec ça ..

source www.lemetropolecafe.com

Bill,
In the August 13 session on the TOCOM Goldman Sachs COVERED A MASSIVE 1,427 short contracts and sold 27 long contracts to bring their long position to 779 contracts and their net short position to 4,962 contracts. This is a new record low for their net short position since I have been keeping track (30 months). It can be seen from the chart below that the steady covering by GS is till on target to bring their position to zero by end of November at the latest. This corresponds to the expiry of the massive DEC08 COMEX gold call options.

Yesterday Midas quoted from Ambrose Evans Pritchard’s most recent article. He said "The Goldman Sachs short-position that I have been observing with some curiosity has paid off."
This is not true. The following chart shows the total "cash" generated from their TOCOM position since I have been keeping records. This just simply counts the cost of a long contract as an expense and selling a contract short as income. It does not include the cost of covering the shorts or the gain from selling a long contract.
This shows that GS in early 2006 generated almost 1 billion USD from short sales. However this cash has had to be used to cover their short position against a generally rising gold price. The cumulative cash generated over 30 months is now NEGATIVE 45 M$.

GS tocom +cash flow et valeur liquidative Midas0814B

But this is not the complete picture because the remaining net short position must be covered. The next chart shows the liquidated value of their position at any time in the last 30 months. This is the net profit or loss that will have been realized once their gold position is at zero contracts. It assumes that outstanding shorts can be completely covered at the market gold price (in reality that is not possible).

GS tocom +cash flow et valeur liquidative Midas0814C

It shows that the GS short position has NOT paid off. It shows that the total return has almost always been negative. It currently stands at negative $175 Million assuming their remaining 4,962 net short contracts can be closed out at $821/oz. That is highly unlikely
One has to wonder what is the motivation to run a loss making position like this for so long? If profit is not the objective it is clearly not a stretch that suppression of the gold price might well be top of the agenda!
Cheers
Adrian

Marie
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