marché de l'or et argent /analyse quotidienne

la cloture de l' argent va être pourrie



attaque de derrière les fagots sur la dernière heure de cotation .. en globex ..






on est déjà à -4.96% là ...


en attendt un bon papier chez Jesse, sur la désaffection des marchés papier et donc du comex ..

http://jessescrossroadscafe.blogspot.com/2011/06/net-asset-value-of-certain-precious.html


et puisque justement Jess évoque le soldat sp500,, la CME veut facilter un rallye d'été en réduisant les appels de couverture sur les futures des index us !
http://www.cmegroup.com/tools-information/lookups/advisories/clearing/files/Chadv11-188.pdf

l'or s'en tire mieux que l'argent .. mais l'horaire du raid est le même, comme toujours ..





or :1538.50$ +0.24%
argent: 36.81$ -4.57%
ratio or argent :41.90

euro$ 1.4329 -0.47%

hui et xau en légère baisse à -1.88% et -1.99%

Norcini et Dan font la même analyse sur un troisième assouplissement quantitatif qui pourrait intervenir plus rapidement que prévu

http://traderdannorcini.blogspot.com/2011/06/gold-4-hour-chart-update-and-comments.html

l'echec de l'or au dela des 1550 $ a déjà atteint sa cible ou quasi 1530 $
et devrait attirer acheteurs .. surtout si la faiblesse du $ persiste ..

http://truthingold.blogspot.com/2011/06/us-economy-headed-for-disaster-qe3.html

à propos des taux d'intéret 10 ans qui plongent sous les 3 %

et en complément du topo Norcini, posté sur le post précédent : et surligné en bleu par mes soins



http://traderdannorcini.blogspot.com/2011/06/markets-are-on-their-hands-and-knees.html

Citation :

The long bond bubble is beginning to form once again and it will take another round of QE to pop it. While the Fed loves the low interest rate environment being created by this mad rush into low yielding bonds, they do not love the ACCOMPANYING market behavior of the equities and many of the commodity markets because that is signaling deflation. What the Fed wants, and is NOT GOING TO GET, is a low interest rate environment accompanied by RISING stock prices and gradually rising commodity prices. They will not get that either. If they push in another round of stimulus, they are going to get a collapse in bond prices alongside a surge in equities and commodities. If they fail to stimulate, they are going to get their dreaded deflation bubble in bonds.

If this continues we are going to see QE3 sooner rather than later.

BREAKINGVIEWS-U.S. Treasury signal either bad news or broken
-- The author is a Reuters Breakingviews columnist. The opinions expressed are her own --
By Agnes T. Crane
NEW YORK, June 1 (Reuters Breakingviews) - The economic signal from U.S. Treasury yields is either bad news or broken. By the usual logic, a drop in 10-year yields below 3 percent is a grim economic omen.
In an eerie echo of the same period last year, Treasury yields have been steadily declining for more than six weeks, pushing them below the earlier 2011 nadir that came in the wake of the earthquake and tsunami that hit Japan in March. But intuitively yields should be heading higher. The U.S. economy is improving, albeit sluggishly. And the Federal Reserve's $600 billion shopping spree in the Treasury market, its second bout of so-called quantitative easing also known as "QE2," is due to end this month.
It's true that a recent batch of economic data has suggested a softening of the recovery, including Wednesday's anemic ADP employment report which foreshadows the official version on Friday. Continuing woes in Europe are also alarming investors. If yields follow last year's trajectory and go lower still, some will anticipate economic weakness and calls for the Fed to launch "QE3" will get louder.
But low interest rates, maintained by such money-printing, seem to be losing their ability to juice the economy. Consider, for example, mortgage refinancings. Falling yields usually lead consumers to refinance their home loans at lower rates, giving them more money to spend. This time around, borrowers lucky enough to have enough equity left to support a new mortgage seem to have refinanced already. Refi activity actually dropped in the Mortgage Bankers Association's latest weekly report
That kind of data point should give Ben Bernanke and his Fed colleagues pause. They figured QE2 would have only a modest effect on the economy but thought that, along with the boost cheap money gives stock prices, it would do enough good to be worthwhile. Any QE3 program would have only a far flimsier rationale. In fact it may be that the Fed's huge interventions and ongoing crises abroad have flooded away the usefulness of indicators like Treasury yields.
If falling yields are signaling further U.S. economic weakness, that's bad news for job seekers, homeowners, and stock investors. On the other hand, if the market is just malfunctioning, low yields may be masking incipient inflation
-- while also making the high level of U.S. government borrowing seem less troubling to policymakers than it should. Neither interpretation is comforting.

The benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury yield fell below 3 percent on June 1, its lowest level since December 2010. Yields have been declining steadily since mid-April. In 2010, yields also began declining in April after reaching 4 percent. They eventually fell below 2.4 percent in October before reversing course.
The pace of growth in the U.S. manufacturing sector slowed more than expected in May, according to a June 1 report from the Institute for Supply Management. The ISM index of national factory activity fell to 53.5 in May from 60.4 the month before. The reading fell short of economists' expectations and was the lowest level for the index since September 2009.
-- The Federal Reserve will complete its $600 billion bond purchasing program at the end of June.

l'attaque de mercredi en globex, en amont du job report de jeudi ne s'est pas étendue d'avantage ...

en effet le job report de jeudi a été une catastrophe .. le $ index ne s'en remet pas et c'est tout bon pour l'or qui devrait repartir à la hausse .. surveiller les 1550 $

http://traderdannorcini.blogspot.com/2011/06/employment-data-undercuts-us-dollar.html


analyse technique du cci index

analyse technique or trading range avec biais haussier

rebond de l'or et de l'argent , avec un $ en légére hausse ..

les minières cloturant en baisse signalent que les ennuis ne sont pas terminés

graphs du jour chez Jesse

http://jessescrossroadscafe.blogspot.com/2011/06/gold-daily-and-silver-weekly-charts_06.html

La dichotomie est particulièrement marquée ce soir entre des mines sévèrement attaquées et un Silver qui prend 1.46%, c'est de plus en plus caricatural, mais si c'est toujours aussi frustrant, ça montre également les difficultés rencontrées par les Usual Suspects pour cantonner le métal sous les zones de tension les plus menaçantes pour leurs shorts ( et leur cul nu, du coup)...

cloture mitigée avec l'or très légérement rouge et l'argent à +0.79%... les minières également en très léger recul

l'or a échoué à franchir les 1550$, tjs en trading range

analyse technique de l'argent

après cette déclaration d'un officiel chinois sur le $, le $ index plonge sur ses plus bas de 1 mois

Citation :

les minières cloturant en baisse signalent que les ennuis ne sont pas terminés

ça n'a pas loupé comme d'hab ...les minières avaient bel et bien anticipé

ça devient lassant à a fin .. . et j'aurais préféré me tromper .. bref ..

gold daily et silver weekly graphs

contrairement au sentiment majoritaire, qui anticipe toujours un été pourri pour l'or et l'argent, Embry prévoit un été très bull ..


Three reasons why gold is going to have a big summer - Embry
As concerns grow once more about the health of the global economy and the nature of gold demand shifts, so the yellow metal is likely to shrug off its traditional summer funk.
Author: Geoff Candy
Posted: Wednesday , 08 Jun 2011
GRONINGEN -
Traditionally, gold tends to take a bit of a breather during the Northern Hemisphere summer. But, there are some, like Sprott Asset Management chief investment strategist, John Embry, who believe this year might be a little different.
Speaking to Mineweb.com's Gold Weekly podcast, Embry said, because of what is going on at a big picture level geopolitically, gold is likely to have a big summer.
"I don't like putting numbers and dates in the same sentence because you always make yourself look bad - but I would be very surprised if it doesn't take out $1,650 this summer and maybe headed towards $1,800 over the next three months," he said.
To back up the statements, Embry points to a number of macroeconomic factors that are likely to have a bearing on gold prices over the next few months.
Firstly, much of the seasonality that is traditionally associated with the metal comes from Asia where gold purchasing is strongly related to the wedding season and, in India because much of the demand traditioanlly comes from rural areas, the sowing cycle.
"People forget," Embry said, "that the gold market is changing fairly significantly from traditional sources of demand into investment demand as an alternative to currencies... investment demand doesn't know seasons - it buys gold because it is fearful of other assets."
Fear is a dominant theme in another of this summer's big economic events - the end of quantitative easing in the U.S and worries about the country reaching its constitutionally mandated debt ceiling.
Embry says, these two events are likely to have a significant impact on the gold price, especially given the recent data that suggests, the U.S. economy could begin to recede once more.
"If you want to withdraw enormous amounts of stimulus by cutting the deficit dramatically at this point, or if QE2 actually marks the end of quantitative easing there's no question that the United States' interests rates are going to go up dramatically because from the numbers I look at, the Federal Reserve has been buying the vast majority of the all the treasuries that have been coming into the market."
"In my opinion we have reached the point of no return. We are either going to take a collapse in the dollar or a collapse in the economy depending on which direction they take. The idea that they can return to normalcy in my opinion is out of the question at this point. They are way too far off line."
The third reason for gold's likely strong performance comes from Europe. "There are an enormous number of problems in Europe, just as there are in United States and to me the conclusion one should arrive at is neither of these currencies are attractive and that to me is one of the underlying factors why I am so bullish on the gold price," he says.
" I look at the Greece situation and I see absolutely no way out that's palatable to the euro and the European banks or what have you that hold a lot of this paper. In some way the Greeks cannot afford to carry the debt load they've have got and somehow that's going to have to be addressed."
Beyond the summer, Embry continues to remain positive on the outlook for precious metals, but he does caution that it can never be only way traffic.
"You are always going to have corrections and there are people who are in this market who are using leverage that had better be careful because the corrections can be quick and violent. But having said that, for you to say that the bull market in gold is over is essentially by saying that we are going to re-establish paper currency as viable and I don't think that's going to happen - I am of the mind that before this whole mess is ended we are going to have a new monetary system and as we make our way towards that, gold and silver will be refuges."

le jeudi n''est pas fidéle à ses habitudes, puisqu'or et argent sont repassés au vert .. tout comme xau et hui ..

l'or est toujours en trading range, mais avec un biais haussier, voir graphe chez Norcini si on casse enfin les 1550$, direction 1575 $

mauvaise fin de semaine pour l'argent qui se vautre à nouveau

cloture à 36.24$ -3.57%

or: 1531.30$ -084%

avec un euro$ en forte baisse
1.4337 -1.21%

hui et xau -1.78% à 508.40 et 193.73

les graphs hebdo de l'or et de l'argent


http://jessescrossroadscafe.blogspot.com/2011/06/gold-daily-and-silver-weekly-charts_10.html

en apparté , rumeurs persistantes sur départ Geithner après négociation du plafond de la dette

http://truthingold.blogspot.com/2011/06/we-may-get-to-see-just-how-cozy.html

nouvelle correction importante .. pour l'argent à 34.80$ -3.95%
mise à jour des graphs chez Jesse

http://jessescrossroadscafe.blogspot.com/2011/06/gold-daily-and-silver-weekly-charts_13.html

correction des métaux concomittante avec une déclaration de Summers sur la nécessité d'un Quantitative easing 3... comme d'habitude, il convient de faire faire à l'or et à l'argent, le contraire de ce qu'ils devraient faire, face à de telles anticipations ..

Summers: More stimulus needed to avoid 'Lost Decade'
CNNMoney.Com
Chris Isidore, On Monday June 13, 2011, 11:13 am
Larry Summers, formerly one of the top economic advisors to President Obama, is advocating more government stimulus to jumpstart the struggling U.S. economy.
In opinion pieces Monday in the Washington Post and Financial Times, Summers, who was the first director of the National Economic Council under Obama, says that the United States is at risk of falling into a "Lost Decade" of prolonged weak economic growth and high unemployment unless more action is taken in the near term.
"We averted Depression in 2008/2009 by acting decisively. Now we can avert a lost decade by recognizing economic reality," he wrote.
Summers wrote that demand is likely to stay weak without the government taking steps to spur spending. He said the U.S. could have fallen into a double-dip recession already if not for the tax cuts and payroll tax holiday passed at the end of last year.
"The central irony of financial crisis is that while it is caused by too much confidence, borrowing and lending, and spending, it is resolved only by increases in confidence, borrowing and lending, and spending," he wrote in both columns.
Summers argued that the debate over how best to cut federal government's deficit and long-term debt outlook shouldn't take precedent over doing more to promote economic growth in the short-term.
"The greatest threat to the nation's creditworthiness is a sustained period of slow growth," he wrote.
Among the proposals he made is increasing the size of the payroll tax holiday from 2% of income to 3% of income, and expanding it so that employers also get a break from paying the tax that goes to support Social Security.
"At a near-term cost of a little more than $200 billion, these measures offer the prospect of significant improvement in economic performance over the next few years translating into significant increases in the tax base and reductions in necessary government outlays," he said in the Washington Post column.
He also advocated more spending on public works projects in the near-term, arguing in the Financial Times that the government should "take advantage of a moment when 10-year interest rates are below 3 percent and construction unemployment approaches 20 percent."

Oui... on dirait qu'on en a pris pour de la correction jusqu'à la rentrée...

On verra bien.

joli rebond, sur les supports .. d'autant plus étonnant pour un mardi

du coté des minières, c'est bien vert aussi ...

et justement ce mardi ont été publiées des statistiques très inflationnistes :
les statistiques PPI ( prix à la consommation ) font ressortir la plus forte hausse annuelle depuis 2008 : +7.3%


May PPI: biggest yearly jump since late 2008
WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Producer prices rose more than expected in May but the pace of increases eased from prior months as the climb in energy costs slowed, according a report on Tuesday.
The Labor Department said producer prices climbed 0.2 percent, double what analyst forecasts in a Reuters poll but down from April's 0.8 percent increase. Compared to a year earlier, prices surged 7.3 percent, the largest rise since September 2008, just as the financial crisis took a turn for the worse and dragged prices lower globally.
Excluding food and energy, wholesale prices jumped 0.2 percent, while year-on-year core inflation remained at 2.1 percent, its highest since August 2009.
-END-

Turk continue de pronostiquer un rallye d'été, et la séance d'aujourd'hui avec rebond sur les supports, indique- d'après lui- que le point bas a été fait

http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/KWN_DailyWeb/Entries/2011/6/14_Turk_-_Gold_%26_Silver_Have_Bottomed%2C_Summer_Explosion_Ahead.html

belle cloture or et argent en dépit d'un fort rebond du $ , ce qui est excellent pour or et argent en euros !

or 1531.60 $ +0.46%
argent 35.70$ +1.16%
euro $ 1.4173 -1.87%

le hui et le xau en léger recul à 506.53 et 193.62

l'été est traditionnellement une période peu favorable ..

le point sur le xau qui doit tenir les 190 , sous peine de rejoindre les 167 /170
http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-CsiSVlaK6ts/TfjiwesZ9RI/AAAAAAAAAd4/fEPK7IFMJME/s1600/snapshot-739.png

et aussi, le point graphique sur l'or : les 1530 $ reconquis aujourd'hui, doivent tenir

http://traderdannorcini.blogspot.com/2011/06/gold-and-summer-doldrums.html

or et argent en léger recul, tandis que les indices xui et xau reculent de plus de 2%

l'or est très fort, en euros , presque au plus haut historique


analyse technique du hui tenir les 490-492

revue graphique des principaux indicateurs de marché concernant les métaux précieux ( cci, cuivre, pétrole et or )

http://traderdannorcini.blogspot.com/2011/06/gold-holding-relatively-firm-as-its.html

et chez Jesse, comparaison des performances de hui, GDX ( etf "senior" mines) et de l'or sur un an

les minières sont tradées contre l'or, comme de vulgaires actions lambda... et tant que ça durera, très sensibles à un crash du marché, dit Jesse





http://jessescrossroadscafe.blogspot.com/2011/06/shocking-divergence-between-gold-and.html

sentiment déflationniste ou inflationniste / fin du Q2 en attente de Q3

d'apres Norcini, et ses graphes sont éloquents, les hedges fund tradent les minières de cette façon... et par conséquent, tant que le sentiment ne se retournera pas dans l'autre sens, les minières vont continuer de morfler ( et de sousperformer les métaux)

voir graph long terme des ratios hui/gold et xau /gold

http://traderdannorcini.blogspot.com/2011/06/hui-gold-ratio-reflects-return-of.html



suite de nos analyses quotidiennes du suivi du prix de l'or , de l'argent et des minières en cloture de NY