Cots futures de l'argent métal, extremement positifs ..

pour moyen et long terme .. .

et quand je dis positif, c'est plus que ça ... puisque pour vous faire toucher du doigt à quel point ça l'est .. entre autres ...

les hedges funds ( managed money) ont une net longue position équivallente à celle qu'ils avaient en fev mars 2010 ... avec l'argent cotant 16.50-17.30 $



puiqu'on sait fort bien quà CT, tout peut arriver ..y compris contre les fondamentaux

prudence recommandée jusquà mercredi, jour cloture des options gold et silver, en tout cas .. ça c'est une certitude .. . et c'est moi qui le dit ... et pas Norcini ..
prudence ... ou occasion de pécho opportunités au comptant sur raid à prévoir

http://traderdannorcini.blogspot.com/2011/05/silver-commitment-of-traders.html

analyse concordante chez Arensberg


http://www.gotgoldreport.com/2011/05/got-gold-report-silver-cot-most-bullish-of-2011-.html

3eme étude cots futures argent

le ratio short / long des commerciaux

signal haussier lorque ce ratio passe sous 2, ce qu'il vient de faire, le 17 mai dernier

www.lemetropolecafe.com

RG on silver...
The Beachball is under water again!..
Calling all ‘Rocketeers of the Happy Silver Ship’,
In recent correspondence I’ve suggested that anyone looking to add to further cabin space for the flight ahead should consider purchasing further seats below $35, Set out below is more evidence to suggest that this correction in Hi-Ho is unlikely to stretch south of the early $30’s and in fact we may have already seen the bottom,
Below is the up to date graph showing the ratio of the Commercial short/long position (red) against the silver price (blue).
On the rare occasions that this ratio has dropped to the ‘Magic 2’ level, it has always historically proven to be a multi-month/year opportunity to buy the metal.
As one can see, it is now down below 2, which is only the 5th time in the duration of this whole silver bull cycle.
Taking each occasion separately:
1) The ratio first fell below 2 on 30th August 2005. The silver fix that day was $6.76. By the 30th May 2006 (some 9 months later) the silver fix was at $12.90!
2) The ratio slipped back to 2 again on the 21th August 2007, with the silver fix that day at $11.67. The ratio remained below this level for a further 4 weeks although the price of silver consistently rose over that period to $12.96. By the 4th March 2008 (some 6 months later) the silver fix was $20.32!
3) On the 30th September 2008 the ratio slipped below 2 again. The silver fix that day was $12.96. The Ratio remained around or below 2 for the next 10 weeks with the silver price bottoming at circa $9. Within about 6 months the price of silver had risen back to above $15, and within about 12 months the price was over $18!
4) On 14th April 2009 the ratio slipped back below 2. The silver fix that day was $12.65. The ratio remained below 2 for a further 2 weeks, with the silver fix bottoming out at circa $12. Within 9 months the price was over $18 and some 2 years later had blown to almost $50!

graphe 2005-17 mai2011

en rouge: le ratio short long des commerciaux
en bleu : le cours de l'argent

So one can clearly see, on almost every occasion, the ‘Magic 2’ has signalled both a near term bottom and strong gains to the price of silver in the weeks and months ahead. The slight exception to this was in late 2008, following the collapse of Lehman Brothers, a time when the global markets were gripped by absolute blind panic. On must remember this was a period when the Western banking system was on the cusp of collapse, banks doors were about to close and almost everything was being sold down irrationally as the entire investment community ran screaming for cover. However even on that occasion, while the price of silver continued to fall further, the ‘Magic 2’ still proved in retrospect to be a most dependable signal for any longer term investor that this was a multi-year opportunity in Hi-Ho’s bull cycle to take up positions. And of course anyone who bought over that period would have been looking at quite staggering returns of over 400% only some 2.5 years later.
The collapse of the credit system in late 2008 was a quite exceptional multi-decade event within the global market place, akin to a ‘Black Swan event’, and it taught all in the entire investment community that prices in any asset class can fall much further regardless of the screaming fundamentals behind them. During that period of extreme volatility, the ‘Magic 2’ , like any market indicator, was no absolute guarantee to an immediate bottom in the very short term. However it’s message for any longer term investor was as valid then as at any other time and the returns it then provided for any that might have acted on it were as good as at any time post or prior.
In summary, whether during a multi-decade Black Swan event or just routine bull correction, history suggests strongly the ‘Magic 2’ signals is that ‘The beach ball is under water’ and anyone looking to buy more metal should look to start backing up the truck accordingly!
It also suggests that those still waiting for silver to fall back into the $20’s before clambering once again onto this bulls back could in fact be waiting some time!
It is no coincidence that I’ve been adding to positions across the board in the last few days.
Very best,
Rich (Live from 'The Bridge of the Silver Rocket Ship')

futures argent / commerciaux



le ratio des nets shorts positions vs open interest atteint le niveau des 29 %, qui n'est pas un point bas abolu mais qui a souvent signalé par le passé qu'un point bas était atteint



Arensberg nous livre également un graph du hui .. il ne faudrait pas casser à la baisse 492 et 507




http://www.gotgoldreport.com/2011/06/when-big-sellers-of-silver-futures-seem-timid.html

cette fois ci, c'est la bonne

le ratio short long des commerciaux argent est passé sous 1.80

c'est encore un autre indicateur qui lance un signal d'achat majeur sur l'argent

www.lemetropolecafe.com


Calling all 'Rocketeers of the Happy Silver Ship',
The Latest commitment of traders report for silver is now screaming out at full volume 'Buy, Buy, Buy',
In fact the Commercial short-long ratio that I have already bored you with at great length in recent correspondence is now down at a multi year super extreme of 1.79,
Below is an up to date chart of the COT picture, In summary there have only been 4 other weeks in this whole bull cycle where the ratio has dropped below 1.80,
4 weeks!
The first 2 weeks of these was 28th Aug 07 and the following week of 04th September 07, The second tranche was 21st Oct 08 and the following week 28th Oct 08,
If you study below both the chart of silver over that period and also the $hui gold mining index, you can see how these extreme lows below 1.80 in the ratio coincided on both occasions very markedly with a bottom in both the silver price and the mining index,
On each occasion this proved to be a multi-year opportunity to take positions in both the metal and the precious metal mining stocks. Each time the price of silver rose by some 60-90% within a 6 month period! And Hui index rose some 90-160%,
Folks there is no such thing as a risk free trade, There is no such thing as a free lunch, and there is no such thing as a one way bet, However there are certain times in an investment cycle when an outstanding opportunity presents itself and advantage should be taken,
The evidence above shows very clearly the historic correlation between an extreme low below 1.80 on the Commercial Short-Long ratio and a multi-month bottoming in the price of both silver and the precious metal mining stocks,
I've been trading the precious metal sector since 2003 and I would consider this to be one of perhaps 4 of the most suitable buying opportunities within the last 8 years!
I can only tell you what I'm doing, And I am up to the very top of my chest waders in all things shiny as I strongly suspect the big March North is almost upon us,
Remember a bull likes to travel with as few on his back as possible, Well with Open Interest in silver at multi-month lows and with extreme apathy seemingly overhanging most of the precious metals mining sector, I'd say this mighty steed's carrying about as light a pack as he's going to get,
From last week's lows, I am confident we are at or very close to the bottom of both the silver price and the miners and will be sorely disappointed if silver's not well past $50 and the Hui has not blown north of 800 by the start of 2012,
Buckle up, the thrusters are burning,
Rich (Live from 'The Bridge of the Silver Rocket Ship')

dernier cot hebdomadaire, paru ce soir et arrété au 5 juillet

liquidation longue sur l'argent métal stoppée , et mieux encore les spécs, non seulement ne liquident plus de longues positions, mais commencent à couvrir quelques shorts ===> ce qui confirment le signal achat de la semaine dernière

tout mes indicateurs se retournent à la hausse, y compris le rapport short /long des commerciaux, dont il est question dans la file au dessus, qui remonte de 1.79 à 1.99

sur l'or, c'est différent
la longue liquidation continue, mais sur un rythme beaucoup plus modéré que la semaine passée, ce qui pourrait etre bon signe ... bien qu'ici et comme je l'ai précisé par ailleurs, on soit loin d'une zone achat majeur
liquidation qui est toujours et majoritairement celle des hedge funds ( managed money )