vietnam /régime des importations et exportations d'or / inflation

décidément, il s'en passe des choses au Vietnam !

apres la news de la suspension des importations de gold ( ici )., because records d'inflation au vietnam
on comprend mieux, le pb
l'or est en train de redevenir un étalon, la bas ... puisque le prix des terrains est désormais affiché en .. or .. le dong se dévaluant trop vite !


http://english.vietnamnet.vn/biz/2008/07/792484/

à compter de la fin du mois de mars ..

arguant que le marché n'est pas assez réglementé.. et les leviers ttrop importants.
va t'il fermer définitivement, ou adopter une régulation plus stricte? l'information ne précise pas ce point.

ceci étant posé .. l'appétit des vietnamiens pour l'or, pose un problème au Dong qui a du être dévalué de plus de 5% en novembre .. et ce en dépit de l'interdiction précédente d'importer de l'or.. interdiction levée au vu des primes que cela avait généré par rapport au fixing du prix à londres

délicat de freiner l'appétit des vietnamiens pour le gold..


http://www.gata.org/node/8202


Vietnam to end gold trading floors


Submitted by cpowell on Sat, 2010-01-02 00:59. Section: Daily Dispatches
By Tim Johnston
Financial Times, London
Friday, January 1, 2010
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/724c92ec-f6d6-11de-9fb5-00144feab49a.html?ncli...
Vietnam has ordered all gold trading floors to close by the end of March, putting an end to a business that turns over $1 billion a day but that the government feared was spinning out of control.
"Both the owners of the gold-trading floors and traders are doing their transactions on a fragile foundation that lacks legal, economic, and technical frameworks and knowledge," the government said in a statement.
The order also bans using overseas accounts but does not affect jewellery or retail gold sales.
The government said it was particularly concerned that some investors had been drawn into overleveraging their positions by low interest rates and the ever-increasing price of gold , which has risen from $660/oz when the first trading floor was started in 2007 to almost $1,100/oz today.
The government said that in some cases, investors had been required to put up only 7 per cent of the value of their portfolio.
The regulation will affect around 20 gold trading floors, but it is unclear if the government is intending to re-write the regulations and allow the floors to re-open or if the move is long-term.
The trade has become a lucrative source of income for many of the banks and trading houses which have opened the exchanges, and the ban could hit profits. But analysts say it could free up liquidity that might flow back into the stock markets, lifting the index.
Gold has a special place in Vietnamese investment portfolios. It often plays a key role in hedging property transactions, and historically provided a buffer against political uncertainty.
Today Vietnam is one of the world's largest gold consumers. The Vietnamese buy a similar amount of gold per head as the Germans, who have a GDP per capita more than 40 times greater.
But the appetite for gold has put significant pressure on the dong and was a key factor in forcing the government to devalue the currency by more than 5 per cent at the end of November. But the currency is still trading below the government's approved trading band on the black market
In May 2008, the government tried to take some of the pressure off the currency by banning gold imports, but it was forced to relax the ban when Vietnamese prices hit a premium of $150/oz to the London Gold fix.
Gold imports were a substantial contributor to a ballooning trade deficit, which hit some $12.2 billion in 2009, contributing to fears of re-emerging inflation.

CA NE CONCERNE QUE LE TRADING (FUTURES JE PENSE), PAS LE PHYSICAL.

Ça va réorienter la FORTE demande vers le VRAI...

oui Sandro, cette fermeture concerne uniquement les futures..

pour le physical, ils avaient bien tenté d'interdire les importations, mais y ont renoncé..comme expliqué ds le 1er post

ça devient craignos le jeu de pingpong .. un coup je bannis les importations, un coup je ferme les futures.... comme quoi, c'est pas possible de contrer une véritable tendance ..

Vietnam central bank wants to outlaw gold trading
Submitted by cpowell on Mon, 2011-02-28 13:32. Section: Daily Dispatches

By Nguyen Pham Muoi
Dow Jones Newswires
via The Wall Street Journal
Monday, February 28, 2011

http://online.wsj.com/article/BT-CO-20110228-702556.html

HANOI -- Vietnam's central bank is proposing that the government issue regulations to ban the trade of gold bullion from the second quarter of this year, state media reported Monday, citing the State Bank of Vietnam.

"The State Bank of Vietnam in the second quarter will request that the government issue a decree on management of gold trading, aiming to control imports and exports of gold and to ban the trading of gold bullion in the free market," the state-run Vietnam News Agency said.

"Trading of gold bullion is seen only in Vietnam but not in other countries," it said. "It is bad for the economy because (the country) has to import gold, which causes trade deficits."

The elimination of gold bullion trading is "necessary and timely," as the government is rolling out measures to tame inflation and stabilize macroeconomic conditions, it said.


***************

To prevent gold market manipulation, Vietnam would outlaw the market
Submitted by cpowell on Mon, 2011-02-28 18:55. Section: Daily Dispatches

This is what happens when the gold market is entirely physical and uncontrolled by derivatives: The price simply explodes and destroys the government currency. Kitco's Jon Nadler and CPM Group's Jeff Christian insist that central banks have no interest in controlling the gold market and little interest even in gold itself. This is hallucination at best, disinformation at worst. Vietnam's central bank doesn't seem to have fallen for it.

* * *

Vietnamese Weigh Impact of Bar on Gold Trade

By Ben Bland
Financial Times, London
Monday, February 28, 2011

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/667412aa-4352-11e0-aef2-00144feabdc0.html

The desire among many Vietnamese to keep gold as a store of value is both a cause and a symptom of the fast-growing nation's economic trouble.

Now the government has said it will ban the trading of gold bars in the "free market" as part of a package of measures designed to rein in soaring prices and tackle deep-seated economic imbalances. But it has befuddled investors and ordinary people alike.

Buffeted by persistent inflation and weakness in their currency, many Vietnamese prefer to save in gold and dollars. Their fondness for gold, which is often used to settle property deals and other large transactions, and for dollars puts further downward pressure on their currency, the dong, in a negative feedback loop from which it is hard to escape.

Vietnam's central bank said on Friday that to prevent speculation and market manipulation, the government would issue a decree in the second quarter of this year banning the free-market gold trade and thereby preventing cross-border smuggling. But, given the government's tendency to issue decrees and circulars by the truckload, gold traders and economists say the real impact of this latest pronouncement will be determined by officials' actions rather than words.

Cao Sy Kiem, a former central bank governor, told the Tuoi Tre newspaper that while the government needed to tackle the proliferation of gold and dollars in order to be able to make sound monetary policy, a "detailed road map" was needed to ensure the problems caused by unofficial gold trading were not made worse.

A gold trader on Ha Trung street in Hanoi, one of the most popular locations for the gold shops that double as black-market dong-dollar exchange houses, questioned how effective this latest move would be.

He said: "The government needs a clear definition of gold bars, or else gold shops will make whatever shape necessary to avoid the law."

One economist said that, as transactions in gold and dollars were circumscribed by law, what was needed was serious enforcement and serious alternatives, not more decrees. Given much of the gold in Vietnam is held in people's home safes, accurate statistics on the amount of the metal in the country are nigh on impossible to collate. Last year the central bank governor denied speculation that there was as much as 1,000 tons of gold in Vietnam, equivalent to 45 per cent of annual gross domestic product.

The onshore gold price, which trades at a premium to international prices, fell initially at the end of last week as news of the proposed trading ban broke. But it stabilised on Monday at 37.6-37.7 million Vietnam dong per tael, equivalent to 37.5 grammes or 1.21 troy ounces, according to Reuters.

Evidence, if it were needed, that it will take a lot more than another decree to coax the gold out of Vietnamese savers.


http://www.gata.org/node/9651

Les cons...!!!

Ils ont certainement voulu plaire à Cabalas ...sauf que du coup

Les Viets vont se jeter sur SILVER

Dans autre style, les bq italiennes voudraient revenir au Mark-to-Market, tout simplement parce qu'elles ont de l'or et que ça améliorerait tellement leurs bilans qu'elles n'auraient pas d'AK à faire pour ce conformer à Bâle II

les vietnamiens contournent l'interdiction exporter de l'or, par le biais des raffineurs suisses et sortent l'or du systéme bancaire ou des etf

Vietnamese evade gold export ban to put wealth outside banking system


Submitted by cpowell on Mon, 2011-03-28 20:50. Section: Daily Dispatches
Vietnamese Traders Beat Bullion Export Ban
By Ben Bland
Financial Times, London
Monday, March 28, 2011
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/4aa15524-5964-11e0-bc39-00144feab49a.html
HANOI, Vietnam -- Vietnamese gold traders have sent billions of dollars worth of high-grade gold jewellery to be smelted in Switzerland over the past two years to circumvent government restrictions on bullion exports.
Before 2008 Vietnam exported minimal amounts of gold ornaments to Switzerland, which dominates the global gold smelting industry, turning items from rings to candlesticks into international standard bullion.
But that changed over the past two years, as Vietnam became Switzerland's biggest single source of imported gold products, much of which ended up in the furnaces operated by leading refiners Argor-Heraeus, Metalor, MKS Finance, and Valcambi.




Cameron Alexander, a senior analyst at GFMS precious metals consultancy, said: "In Vietnam, banks haven't been able to export bullion freely, so they have made jewellery out of it so they can export it. There's a loophole and people who need the dollars have taken advantage of it."
Last year, Vietnam exported nearly 61 tonnes of precious metals -- mostly gold products -- to Switzerland, generating SFr2.6 billion ($2.8 billion), according to the Swiss Federal Customs Administration. In 2009, Vietnam exported 54 tonnes, generating SFr1.9 billion, already well up from 3.2 tonnes valued at SFr71 million in 2008. The figures do not include bullion, which is treated as "monetary gold."
Hasan Demir, who works in the statistics department at Swiss customs, said: "Swiss firms enjoy an excellent reputation for smelting pure gold bars. The high level of the gold price at the moment, reinforced by the depreciation of the Vietnamese currency, has stimulated gold owners in Vietnam to sell their gold."
In recent years, gold in Vietnam has tended to trade at a premium because of import restrictions designed to stem the flow of money out of the Vietnamese currency, the dong.
Anxious consumers and businesses have hoarded dollars and gold to protect against high inflation and devaluations of the dong. Economists believe Vietnam suffers from significant unrecorded capital flight.
The sale of gold jewellery to Switzerland has spiked on the rare occasions when the onshore gold price was lower than the international price, according to Nguyen Ngoc Que Chi, chief executive of Sacombank Jewellery Co., which is owned by a local bank, as are many other jewellery and gold traders in Vietnam.
Many analysts say that government attempts to control Vietnam's gold market have been counterproductive.
"When there are restrictions, people will always smuggle it in, and over the last couple of years, we've seen a large proportion of gold coming in unofficially through Thailand, Laos, and Cambodia, as well as pretty healthy flows from China," said Mr Alexander.
Official Vietnamese data show a net gold outflow of $2 billion to $3 billion per annum over the past two years, mostly to Switzerland. But statistics from the World Gold Council, a mining industry lobby group, suggest a net inflow of $2 billion to $3 billion per year, according to Scott Robertson, founding partner of Asia Markets Group, an advisory firm.
Analysts believe this discrepancy is the result of "capital flight," with Vietnamese people selling dong to buy gold that has been smuggled in and does not appear in official statistics.
The International Monetary Fund's analysis of the "errors and omissions" in government balance of payments data suggests that last year Vietnam suffered an unidentified outflow of $12 billion to $13 billion, around 12 per cent of GDP.
"Either the current account deficit is understated or capital inflows are overstated or there's been resident capital flight that isn't picked up in the official data," said Benedict Bingham, the IMF's senior representative in Vietnam.
"All three probably contribute to the problem but only the last is likely to explain such a big discrepancy. It's basically residents shifting from dong into dollars and gold and keeping it out of the banking system."

un très interessant article sur le vietnam

l'or, la loi de Gresham et le Dong

Gold, Gresham's Law and the Dong

d'après le dernier rapport du WGC, les vietnamiens seraient les 2emes, après l'inde pour la thésaurisation de l'or 460 à 1000 T d'or détenues par les vietnamiens, stockées en banque .

les importations d'or sont en hausse de 28% en valeur ( 2% en volumes ) : 19.2 T pour les 4 1ers mois 2011
la demande pour la bijouterie est en hausse de 7%, celle pour les lingots à +2% sur le 1er quadrimestre 2011

Citation :

Vietnam spent $878 million to import 19.2 tons of gold in the first quarter of this year, up 28 percent in value and 2 percent in volume year on year, according to a recent report from World Gold Council.

Vietnam’s year-on-year demand for gold jewelry and gold bullions for investment has increased by 7 percent to 5.5 tons and 1 percent to 14.2 tons respectively in Q1/2011.

http://english.vietnamnet.vn/en/business/9404/vietnam-is-world-s-2nd-largest-gold-hoarder.html

Inflation record pour le Vietnam, en tête des pays de la zone asiatique : 22% de hausse annuelle des prix à la consommation ,

après que la banque centrale ait réduit le taux d'intérêt directeur .

c'était déjà pas fameux en 2010 ( 20.82% d'inflation annuelle ), mais là , ils atteignent des sommets !


http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-07-23/vietnam-s-inflation-accelerates-to-22-highest-level-among-asia-economies.html



Sandro avait anticipé dès 2001 un scénario hyperinflationniste , il avait malheureseusement raison, peut être même avant d'ailleurs, avec ses lettres d'or ...

Citation :

Lettres d'or : rédigées de juillet 1997 à Novembre 1998,avant même que je ne connaisse Internet, ces lettres de conjoncture et de conjectures sont publiées pour démontrer que quoi qu'on dise, la crise actuelle n'avait rien d'imprévisible ..

1ere partie/2éme partie


Sandro, Visionnaire

marie a écrit:

Sandro avait anticipé dès 2001 un scénario hyperinflationniste , il avait malheureseusement raison, peut être même avant d'ailleurs, avec ses lettres d'or ...

Citation :

Lettres d'or : rédigées de juillet 1997 à Novembre 1998,avant même que je ne connaisse Internet, ces lettres de conjoncture et de conjectures sont publiées pour démontrer que quoi qu'on dise, la crise actuelle n'avait rien d'imprévisible ..

1ere partie/2éme partie


Sandro, Visionnaire

Selon les statistiques du WGC, le Vietnam se situe devant la Chine et l'inde pour les achats d'or par nombre d'habitants :

C'est dire si les Vietnamiens ont pigé les enjeux principaux

- l'or est une monnaie, souvent meilleure que la monnaie officielle

-Ce pourquoi, les gouvernements cherchent à en controler le cours

- un environnement inflationniste avec des taux réels négatifs est favorable à l'or

-le prix de l'or réel, celui dont on prend physiquement possession est toujours plus élévé que celui de l'or papier, qui dicte encore les cours officiels, en occident





http://www.gata.org/node/10983



http://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/vietnam-battles-gold-fever-price-113938302.html

vietnam : la démonstration du statut de l'or comme monnaie, s'accélére



http://news.goldseek.com/GoldSeek/1334240700.php

les banques vietnamiennes autorisées à acheter 20 tonnes d'or, sur les 2 prochains mois, afin d'améliorer leurs liquidités ...

le tout avant interdiction négoce sur l'or, jugé trop risqué avec la hausse des cours , d'ici le 25 novembre

ce qui revient à interdire les importations d'or ... pour ( en principe )protéger la monnaie nationale de l'inflation

( dans la droite ligne des actions entreprises précédemment ...voir plus haut dans la file )

http://futures.tradingcharts.com/news/futures/DJ_Vietnam_May_Allow_Banks_to_Buy_20_Tons_of_Gold_in_Next_Two_Months_187756152.html

nouvelles directives de la banque centrale : au lieu de verser un intéret sur l'or qui leur est confié, les banques devront faire payer les frais de gardiennage à leurs clients.

Citation :

To reduce contraband and persuade people to sell their bullion, the central bank made itself the sole importer and Saigon Jewelry Co. the only legal producer of gold bars. To discourage people from holding the precious metal, it banned banks from paying interest on gold deposits from June 30. Banks now have to charge customers a fee for storing it instead.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-07-14/granny-s-gold-bars-are-key-to-vietnam-push-to-boost-dong.html

les clients vont retirer le matos et l'enterrer, ils ne sont pas idiots les Viets, loin de là...et accessoirement ça sera toujours ça de moins à emprunter à leur insu pour le shorter...c'est un peu se tirer une balle dans le pied pour les Caballassociés de la BCV...

interventions sur le marché de l'or:

Eux au moins ne s'en cachent pas, et revendiquent ouvertement la régulation et les interventions sur le marché de l'or

http://tuoitrenews.vn/business/19888/cbank-vows-to-intervene-in-gold-market-to-maintain-stability