baisse du cours de l'or et gold lease rates signal

j'ai déjà fait plusieurs fois allusion récemment à ce sujet et encore ce soir



http://www.hardinvestor.net/t12478p315-prix-de-l-or-de-l-argent-et-des-minieres-suivi-quotidien-en-cloture#46303



mais je vais y revenir plus longuement puisque forcément , on peut légitimement se demander d'où viendrait cet or réel, miraculeusement récupéré par ceux qui veulent dumper à tout prix le cours de l'or, mais qui n'ont plus guère de munitions réelles à brader sur le marché

l'article de Jeff Nielsson évoque les stats WGC des réserves de la gréce ( 111 tonnes ça suffit largement à déstabiliser un marché très bull, sur le CT ) et de la "défunte" Lybie ( 143.80 tonnes ) , c'est déja une piste


tout ceci n'est évidemment qu'hypothéses et conjonctures, je précise pour la bonne forme


the bankers's new gold



mais il y a aussi les réserves de l'italie ( si il y reste autre chose que des reconnaissances de dettes ) sur laquelle régne désormais en maitre Mario Monti , un Gs man

un article technique, et long, en anglais :

http://www.metalaugmentor.com/analysis/charlatan-exposed-negative-gold-lease-rates.html

je ne l'ai pas lu, pas le temps (et trop technique pour moi peut-être !), mais je pense qu'il y a de bonnes infos à en tirer pour ceux qui veulent.

Bonne journée

oui Gofo et leases rates, c'est le gros débat ... ( voir aussi l'analyse de Jesse postée dans une autre file )



http://jessescrossroadscafe.blogspot.com/2011/12/interest-rate-for-lending-gold-in.html



voir aussi les définitions Gofo- Gold lease rates



à ce propos, encore une analyse supplémentaire d'Ed Wener, qui attire l'attention sur la mobilisation éventuelle des réserves d'or de la Suisse ( lorqu'ils ont changé la parité du fc suisse et de l'euro ), mais aussi de l'itale, de le france et du japon



www.lemetrolecafe.com





Gold Price

Hi Bill:
One of the more popular websites for Gold bugs is one run by a fellow by the name of "Turd" Ferguson who relies heavily on charts and from these has been quite good at making short term predictions. He warned a few days ago that the current price drop would occur and set his target around $1550. So far so good. Here is his explanation.
I'll leave out the chart of Lease Rates.

http://www.tfmetalsreport.com/blog/3147/only-charts-matter



Lastly, many have asked how I could successfully warn you of this debacle a week in advance. Like most things around here, it's not complicated. Take a look at this chart of gold lease rates:

Again, the "lease rate" is the net rate of interest a bullion bank like JPM pays to a central bank like the Fed to borrow gold. The bank then takes the gold and sells it on the LBMA or the Comex. After painting the tape and initiating the beatdown, the bank can then cover the new short position, thereby reclaiming the gold it borrowed for return to the central bank. With one-month lease rates at -0.5%, the bank actually gets paid interest by the lender to borrow the gold. Its a win-win for JPM et al. They make interest (which they like) and prop desk trading profits (which they like even more).

He leaves his readers with this warning:

BUT, IF PRICE CONTINUES TO DECLINE, THROUGH 1500 AND 23, we'll need to stop out any new trading positions and seriously re-assess where we go from here.







I assume he'll have to find a new chart to figure out what went wrong. Well, I can tell him right now that the answer isn't to be found in charts even if he seems particularly good at interpreting them. The key to his misunderstanding is the physical gold market. What is important with respect to gold is not the price but the flow of metal.

<p>Gold is not valued by its Dollar price but by WEIGHT. How does one measure ones wealth in Gold terms? By counting the number of ounces in ones possession.
<p>Mr Ferguson's error can be seen in the underlined section of the quote above. He seems to think the leased gold is returned to the Central Bank. If this was the case
the Gold price would never had gotten above $250. As James Turk has shown by examining British Customs documents there was a massive outflow of Gold from the UK in the 1990's, which given the the UK is not a producer of Gold, can only have come from the BOE Gold Depository.
The price of Gold has risen precisely because this flow of Gold out of the Western Depositories slowed down. They were losing too much gold during the 1990's. When we get sharp price drops like we are now seeing there is only one possible reason. The flow of Gold has increased. We have three logical sources of this Gold: First Switzerland when it tied the Franc to the Euro and now France and Italy. The Italian case is particularly interesting as it was along with Germany was not showing any drop in its Gold Reserves during the Washington Agreement period. In fact Italy, along with the USA and Japan, is one of the few countries not showing any movement in its Gold Reserves in 30 years. Has that changed now that the Government is controlled by unelected officials? Gold is leaving Europe. Of that we can be sure. In six months we'll read that India, Russia and China imported record amounts during this period just as India did in the Fall of 2008 when the Gold price fell 30%. None of that Gold was returned nor will any of the currently leased gold. The bullion banks will make their hard earned "commissions" and cover some more of their short position but the Gold was sacrificed. The more Gold these desperate bankers sacrifice the more the price will drop as buyers take advantage of the "forced" sales. When the flow stops back up goes the price.



Ed Wener

nombreux commentaires et analyses sur ce point

avec également la dimension Ron Paul , et la proximité des élections US

et des comments détaillés sur l'analyse seeking Alpha posté plus haut par Imhotep



http://www.gata.org/node/10789

j'évoquais en début de file les réserves d'or de l'italie qui sont officiellement de 2452 tonnes d'or, en 4eme rang mondial derrière usa, allemagne et fmi



je précise bien officiellement, car il se pourrait que les coffres soient déjà pas mal remplis de "you's" promesse de retour à l'emprunteur



Quoiqu'il en soit et depuis que Mario Monti, l'homme de GS a pris le pouvoir, on peut se poser des questions , et pourquoi pas vendre ou surtout préter des "you's" , ça ne serait pas la 1ere fois, réserves fractionnaires ds toute sa splendeur



http://www.marketwatch.com/story/will-the-europeans-have-to-sell-their-gold-2011-12-20

ça tombe bien, GFMS confirme que les préts d'or des BC ont augmenté en 2011, sans préciser le montant exact de cette augmentation, la qualifiant simplement de petite.

marrant qu'ils soient avares de ce "petit chiffre"



voir le texte complet de cette news, ici