quelques réflexions plus "fondamentales" .. que je partage bien évidemment
www.lemetropolecafe.comJust another manufactured selloff Mexico Mike... Hi Bill!
Lets put all of this market action in perspective. I think the events in Japan are serious and a terrible tragedy, and for sure some disruption is going to affect the domestic Japanese economy for a long time to come. However the area directly affected by the quake and tsunami accounts for a very small percentage of Japanese GDP. The response to this reality has been a monumental selloff that has shaken world markets and some people are even suggesting this could trigger much wider recessionary implications. I think people need to simmer down and get a grip.
Sanity will return to the markets and some of the sectors have been hit far harder than is warranted even given the seriousness of the situation. Given that we are facing triple witching friday this week the already heavy market volatility has been further increased by this situation. I would not at all be surprised to hear if hedge funds and institutions have chosen to profit from the tragedy by shorting the hell out of everything. If so then the stability will return shortly as these hedges and shorts are covered off. The ridiculous selling pressure may prove to be epic buying opportunities for the longs, and I have been active buying quite a few resource stocks this week.
The dollar has bounced and is getting a lot of attention as a haven. Well a bounce was overdue anyway, and even after the modest recovery this week the dollar remains in very serious downside territory. I do not discount any scenario but my guess is the pressure on the dollar will resume as soon as people figure out that the end of the world is not at hand.
Which brings us to the metals. The net move lower for both gold and silver has been dramatic, but hardly amounts to a major correction. However I have seen many PM juniors dive by 20 - 30% in response over the last week. Is this a function of heavy shorting, investors pitching all PM holdings in fear, or some combination of the two? It feels like 2008 again today. It appears that once again the Cartel has bamboozled investors into thinking that a collapse is on the way. This is no doubt related to the barrage of commentary in recent weeks to imply that gold and silver are bubbles.
All bubbles do exhibit that parabolic chart action as the greater fool theory bids prices higher in speculative excess. However not every parabolic chart is an indication of a bubble. Closer inspection of the fundamentals for the PMs would suggest that not only is the rise in price warranted, and further that the actual participation in the sector accounts for a tiny minority of total invested assets. History is on our side. When the metals go through these nasty down trends the recovery tends to occur relatively swiftly and losses are regained on the way to new highs. I doubt this latest episode will be any different.
Cheers!
MexicoMike
*****
Do you need any more proof?
Bill H:To all; the nuclear situation in Japan looks to be going critical.
http://www.stratfor.com/analysis/2011031
5-red-alert-radiation-rising-and-heading-south-japan?utm_source=
redalert&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=110315&utm_content=readmor
e&elq=fde4a0fb227144d1ad8e79ecb37bf62d North winds are blowing the radiation south toward Tokyo where panic is spreading as the population has begun fleeing. This is truly a human disaster which we can only pray does not worsen.
Markets globally are collapsing and of course right on cue Gold and Silver are being smashed on the paper markets. I cannot imagine ANYONE who owns physical metal running to their local dealer and selling for Dollars or ANY other paper currency. I highly doubt that ANY entity ANYWHERE on the planet is offering real tangible metal in any size for sale at these lower levels. Last night while reading the news of the meltdowns I looked to see what the metals were doing, they were down 1+% at the time and are now down much further. My immediate reaction was to chuckle (not at the situation in Japan because it is no laughing matter when human lives are at stake) at how brazen the cabal or plunge protection team is.
Think about it, THE most time tested safe haven is being smashed with paper contracts in the face of the gravest danger the world has faced since WWII. Who in their right mind would be tossing their life jackets overboard in wholesale fashion from a sinking ship? Do you need any more proof at all that the Gold and Silver markets are rigged? Even the biggest blowhard lying naysayers must be red in the face with embarrassment at this latest episode of price suppression! This is beyond blatant, beyond farce, beyond ANY lengths the cabal has EVER undertaken. THE day where Gold moves up $100's per ounce in a day is very near and so is "the call". "The call" being the day that paper owners of Gold and Silver ask, no, DEMAND delivery!
There is simply not the metal available to meet the panicky physical call that is surely coming. Over the weekend Jim Sinclair wrote that a COMEX default is not the "biggie". The "biggie" will be when the ETF's default that were initially created to divert demand and are hollow vaults. Once this scenario begins to unfold, panic to buy will be an understatement! Once it is known for a fact that all these paper contracts are worthless can you imagine what one Gold ounce in your hand will be worth? It is exactly this scenario why I have said all along that anyone trying to forecast a "peak" price can only be guessing and will be laughably wrong. Remember the story of the 1920's bellboy that bought his hotel for 1 ounce of Gold he recieved as a tip..... Regards, Bill H.
*************Dave from Denver…Tuesday, March 15, 2011Quote Of The Year So Far - From Marc Faber: "We may drop 10 to 15 percent. Then QE 2 will come, (then) QE 4, QE 5, QE 6, QE 7—whatever you want. The money printer will continue to print, that I'm sure. Actually I made a mistake. I meant to say QE 18." (I sourced this from zerohedge.com)
That is almost verbatim the conversation I had with my business partner this morning. Hedge funds are dumping everything in sight in order to avoid catastrophic margin calls. The selling may come in waves as margin calls are issued. But, use this volatility to add to good quality mining stock positions, especially junior miners. Also make sure you add to your physical gold/silver holdings.
I expect the Fed to ease the fiat paper spigot even more today, although they may not explicitly make that clear when they release their FOMC meeting policy decision later today. However, there is no doubt whatsoever in my mind, and I made this call in a post last week, that the Fed will use the Japan catastrophe as a "cover" to continue with its QE sequence. I also expect them at some point to include mortgage-backed garbage (FNM/FRE crap) and eventually muni paper. Get out of all fixed income paper - inflation isn't coming, it's here now - and move your money into hard assets.
Through a combination of luck and instinct, we moved our stock portfolio into a 33% cash position yesterday morning and we are now moving some of that cash back into our favorite positions.
***
et aussi du même Bill H que plus haut ..
http://rss.goldtent.net/?p=236133
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