inflation / Hyper Inflation /hyper stagflation / le spectre de Weimar , infos en continu

Norcini n'est pas tout seul ( voir la file qui lui est dédiée ) à anticiper la survenue tres prochaine de l'hyperinflation ..

pour ceux qui ne le connaissent pas encore, Harry est un des 1ers gold bugs et un cador de l'analyse technique

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/exit-harry-schultz-pursued-by-a-bear-2010-09-16

à la suite de la lecture de cet article, un lecteur se pose la question suivante, pour le cours du papier

Citation :

Le vieux Harry pressent l'irruption de l'hyperinflation sine-dié. Il dit que pour ça, un "accident" peut être l'élément declenchant. Et il donne comme exemple le défaut de livraison du Comex sur l'Or.

Je suis loin d'avoir la perspicacité de cet excellent analyste, mais une faillite du Comex entrainerait ipso-facto celle des bullion banks lourdement chargées en short. Et ça, ça entrainerait plutot une raréfaction de l'argent-papier plutot que son abondance. !!! Je me pose donc la question.

à quoi je réponds ceci :

en cas de faillite des BB ( bullion banques) , ça ne fait pas pour autant disparaitre l'offre fictive de papier, qu'ils n'auraient pas pu couvrir .. et d'une ..

et de 2 .. les investisseurs devenant tout à fait conscients de la valeur totalement fictive du paper gold vont s'en détourner complétement .. au profit des tangibles ..
et ceux qui en avaient vont vendre à tout prix.. de peur de rester collé avec un papier , pour lequel la confiance est devenue ZERO...d'où accélération de la chute des courspapier, par effet de boule de neige

. que ce soit les etf bidons, style gld, les warrants et autres certifs .. etc etc .. il ne fera pas bon en être détenteur .. si et lorsque le défault du comex se produira .

Je demeure quand même un peu sceptique quant à l'effet que pourrait avoir un défaut de livraison sur le COMEX (outre qu'un tel défaut de livraison est apparemment déjà intervenu) sur l'apparition d'un phénomène hyperinflationniste à une échelle nationale ou internationale.

Surtout quand on voit le peu de publicité fait par voie de presse à la progression des MPx. Le Monde continuant par exemple à expliquer doctement ces jours derniers que l'or était surévalué et qu'il fallait tout vendre rapidement.

A mon avis, pour provoquer un tel phénomène, il faudra plutôt attendre la faillite d'un ou deux mastodontes parmi les banques de dépôts et des queues généralisées aux guichets. Cela parle sans doute davantage à tout un chacun. Et ce n'est pas pour tout de suite probablement, la Fed conservant quelques tours d'hélicoptère dans son sac.

Ce sont d'ailleurs les autres exemples cités dans l'article et ce sont ceux qui ont fonctionné "historiquement" avec un certain succès dans les années 20 et 30 en Europe (et pas seulement en Allemagne, contrairement à une idée fort répandue).

Brèves / La City de Londres se prépare à une « hyperinflation sévère »
4 octobre 2010 - 15:13
http://www.solidariteetprogres.org/article7038.html

Outils :

4 octobre 2010 (Nouvelle Solidarité) – Après les aveux d’Ambrose Evans-Pritchard la semaine dernière, c’est un nouvel organe de la City de Londres qui admet ce que nous avons annoncé depuis longtemps : le système mondial se dirige vers une explosion hyperinflationniste brutale. Désormais, la seule parade est de mettre en liquidation judiciaire les spéculateurs en rétablissant globalement les lois de type Glass-Steagall.Dans une étude préliminaire publiée le 30 septembre et intitulée « Hyperinflation sévère », le Bureau des standards comptables internationaux (IASB), organisme édictant les normes comptables internationales, propose une nouvelle règle pour aider les comptables à faire face aux cas d’hyperinflation de leurs monnaies nationales respectives. Organisme privé basé à Londres, le IASB est présidé par Sir David Tweedie, chevalier de la Couronne britannique. Apparemment, ces gens-là savent quelque chose dont ils ne souhaitent pas parler à l’opinion publique.Parallèlement, le comité de la politique monétaire de la Réserve fédérale américaine (Fed), poursuit sa logique folle : Ben Bernanke et William Dudley, Président de la Fed de New York, ont à nouveau fait part de leur volonté de relancer l’économie en relançant l’inflation, ce qui n’est qu’un prétexte pour lancer une nouvelle vague d’émission monétaire destinée à racheter les actifs toxiques des banques américaines.Tout opposant sérieux au système doit dénoncer cette escroquerie monétaire car il en va de la survie des peuples. Organisons le sursaut dès à présent :>>> Cheminade2012, l’avant-projet <<<

Elle me plaît bien cette inflation. Elle permet plein de choses bien sympathiques.

Pour rappel, et par exemple, en 1979, le gouvernement Thatcher avait prétexté une hausse de l'inflation pour remonter les taux directeurs de 5% en une nuit (de 12 à 17% de mémoire).

La cause de l'inflation invoquée par le gouvernement était le montant des dépenses publiques, et non bien entendu la hausse du prix du bbl consécutive à l'éjection du Shah d'Iran par le MI5 qui avait conduit le taux aux environs de 18%. Ce qui avait conduit à des coupes drastiques dans le budget bien entendu.

La conséquence de la hausse des taux en avait évidemment été une catastrophe économique et une hausse du chômage de 100 % en quelques années (de 1,5 à 3 M). Le gouvernement avait accusé les syndicats de manquer de flexibilité et d'être responsable du chômage ce qui avait servi de prétexte à Thatcher également pour cogner sur les Trade Unions et s'en débarrasser presque définitivement.

Pendant ce temps, les banques de la City encaissaient des bénéfices considérables qu'ils pouvaient réinvestir...à Singapour ou en Amérique latine, car fort opportunément Thatcher avait fait abolir le contrôle des changes. Il n'était évidemment pas question d'investir ces montants dans l'industrie anglaise sinistrée.

Sans parler des majors de l'industrie pétrolière qui pouvaient tabler sur un bbl de mémoire aux environs de 36$ (des vrais dollars de l'époque, pas des pesodollars de 2010).

Même cause, mêmes effets ? On parie ?

Citation :

Même cause, mêmes effets ? On parie ?

Belle lucidité, malheureusement trop peu répandue chez nos bovins de compatriotes... en effet, je partage ton diag et ne compte pas sur moi pour parier contre, du reste, la dérive anti-sociale en cours en Europe, sous la férule de la "droite désinhibée et décomplexée" n'est pas sans évoquer, de plus en plus clairement Jalmar Shacht qui, de coupe de budgets en suppressions de dépenses publiques a directement conduit le peuple allemand dans les bras d'Hitler...

Citation :

Même cause, mêmes effets ? On parie ?

Oh, putain, pourvu qu'on se goure...!

Rampant Inflation In 2011? The Monetary Base Is Exploding, Commodity Prices Are Skyrocketing And The Fed Wants To Print Lots More Money


http://theeconomiccollapseblog.com/archives/rampant-inflation-in-2011-the-monetary-base-is-exploding-commodity-prices-are-skyrocketing-and-the-fed-wants-to-print-lots-more-money



Are you ready for rampant inflation?
Well, unfortunately it looks like it might be headed our way. The U.S. monetary base has absolutely exploded over the last couple of years, and all that money is starting to filter through into the hands of consumers.
Commodity prices are absolutely skyrocketing, and it is inevitable that those price increases will show up in our stores at some point soon. The U.S. dollar has already been slipping substantially, and now there is every indication that the Fed is hungry to start printing even more money. All of these things are going to cause a rise in inflation. Not that we aren't already seeing inflation in many sectors of the economy. Airline fares for the holiday season are up 20 to 30 percent above last year's rates.
Double-digit increases in health insurance premiums are being reported from coast to coast. The price of food has been quietly sneaking up even at places like Wal-Mart.
Meanwhile the U.S. government insists that the rate of inflation is close to zero. Anyone who actually believes the government inflation numbers is living in a fantasy world. The U.S. government has been openly manipulating official inflation numbers for several decades now. But we really haven't seen anything yet. As increasingly larger amounts of paper money are dumped into the economy, we are eventually going to see the worst inflation in American history.

The only real question is how far down the road are we going to get before it happens. Take a few moments and digest the chart below. It shows just how dramatically the U.S. monetary base has been expanded recently....


Up to this point this dramatic expansion of the U.S. monetary base has not caused that much inflation because U.S. government borrowing has soaked most of it up and U.S. banks have been hoarding cash and have been building up their reserves.However, this situation will not last forever. Eventually all this cash will make its way through the food chain and into the hands of U.S. consumers.

But what is even more troubling is the dramatic spike in commodity prices that we have seen in 2010. Wheat futures have surged 63 percent since the month of June. Wheat has recently been selling well above 7 dollars a bushel on the Chicago Board of Trade.But wheat is far from alone. In his recent column entitled "An Inflationary Cocktail In The Making", Richard Benson listed many of the other commodities that have seen extraordinary price increases over the past year....

*Agricultural Raw Materials: 24%
*Industrial Inputs Index: 25%
*Metals Price Index: 26%
*Coffee: 45%
*Barley: 32%
*Oranges: 35%
*Beef: 23%
*Pork: 68%
*Salmon: 30%
*Sugar: 24%
*Wool: 20%
*Cotton: 40%
*Palm Oil: 26%
*Hides: 25%
*Rubber: 62%
*Iron Ore: 103%

Now, as those price increases enter the chain of production do you think that there is any chance that they will not cause inflation?

Do you think there is any chance at all that producers and retailers will not pass those costs on to consumers?

It is time to face facts.Those cost increases are going to filter all the way through the system and your paycheck is soon not going to stretch nearly as far.Inflation is coming.

Many savvy investors understand what is going on right now. That is one reason why gold and silver are absolutely soaring at the moment.The price of gold set another record high on Friday for the sixth straight day.
Silver has also experienced extraordinary gains recently, and the U.S. Mint has officially raised their wholesale pricing above spot on American Silver Eagles from $1.50 to $2.00.Meanwhile, there are even more rumblings that the Fed wants to print lots more money. On Friday, the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, William Dudley, stated that the high unemployment and the low inflation that the United States is experiencing right now are "wholly unacceptable"...."Further action is likely to be warranted unless the economic outlook evolves in such a way that makes me more confident that we will see better outcomes for both employment and inflation before long."During his remarks, Dudley even mentioned what the effect of another $500 billion increase in the Fed’s balance sheet would be.Now keep in mind, this is not just another "Joe" who is making these remarks.This is the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York - the most important of all the regional Fed banks.In recent weeks it is almost as if you can hear Fed officials salivate as they consider the prospect of flooding the economy with even more money. Up to this point, very little has worked to stimulate the dying U.S. economy. The Federal Reserve and the Obama administration are getting nervous as the American people become increasingly frustrated about the economic situation.So will flooding the economy with even more money and causing even more inflation do the trick?Well, no, but what inflated GDP figures will do is enable Obama and the Fed to say: "Look the economy is growing again!"But if a flood of paper money causes the value of goods and services produced in the U.S. to go up by 5 percent but the real inflation rate is 10 percent, are we better off or are we worse off?It doesn't take a genius to figure that one out.So don't get fooled by "economic growth" numbers. Just because more money is changing hands doesn't mean that the U.S. economy is doing better. In fact, many American families are going to be financially shredded by the coming inflation tsunami. Just think about it.How far will your paycheck go when a half gallon of milk is 10 dollars and a loaf of bread is 5 dollars?Already, it is incredibly difficult for the average American family of four to get by on $50,000 a year.So how much money will we need when rampant inflation starts kicking in?And do you think that your employers will actually give you pay raises to keep up with all of this inflation?Not in these economic conditions.In fact, median household incomes are declining from coast to coast all over the United States.Earlier this year, Ben Bernanke promised Congress that the Federal Reserve would not "print money" to help the U.S. Congress finance the exploding U.S. national debt.Did any of you believe him at the time?Did any of you actually believe that the Federal Reserve would act responsibly and would attempt to keep the money supply and inflation under control?The reality is that the entire Federal Reserve system is predicated on perpetual inflation and a perpetually expanding national debt. Whatever wealth you and your family have been able to scrape together is going to continue to be whittled away month after month after month by the hidden tax of inflation.And unfortunately, as discussed above, inflation is about to get a whole lot worse.So is there any room for optimism? Is there any hope that we will not see horrible inflation in the years ahead? Please feel free to leave a comment with your opinion below....Share and Enjoy:

La FED viendrait de doubler le Japon comme 2ème détentrice de T-bonds ; au rythme où elle va, la FED deviendrait number ONE, devant la Chine, d'ici 2 semaines environ, bien avant que le QE 2.0 soit lancé.Si ce n'est pas de la monétisation, qu'est-ce ?

du-puel a écrit:

La FED viendrait de doubler le Japon comme 2ème détentrice de T-bonds ; au rythme où elle va, la FED deviendrait number ONE, devant la Chine, d'ici 2 semaines environ, bien avant que le QE 2.0 soit lancé.Si ce n'est pas de la monétisation, qu'est-ce ?

D'après le Business Insider c'est pas moins de 4.000 Mds qui auraient été jetés sur les treasuries pour diluer la participation de la Chine.

http://www.businessinsider.com/thanks-to-the-treasury-bubble-china-can-no-longer-threaten-the-us-with-its-nuclear-option-2010-9

En réalité, la FED est sans doute de loin le premier détenteur par paradis fiscaux interposés. Je crois de mémoire que les Iles Cayman détiennent selon les époques entre 800 et 1000 Mds de treasuries. C'est sûrement pour en faire des serviettes sur la plage.

En bossant sur autre chose, je tombe là-dessus sur wikipedia.

Autre vertu de l'inflation : c'est elle qui a justifié le mécanisme qui a conduit à l'accumulation de la dette publique en France comme ailleurs. Quel délice !

Dans les années 1970, une hausse de l’inflation à l’échelle mondiale est provoquée entre autres par les chocs pétroliers et la suspension de la parité du dollar américain avec l'or (adoption généralisée du système des changes flottants).

L'inflation sape la confiance des prêteurs, à une période où l'état augmente ses dépenses pour tenter de relancer la machine économique et de limiter les désordres sociaux de la crise économique : il doit recourir à l'emprunt de façon plus massive et plus durable. Les coûts croissants de la protection sociale creusent les déficits publics et augmentent les niveaux de dette^[58]. Ainsi, dans les années 1970 et 1980, les pays industrialisés rentrent dans un régime inédit de dette permanente : « pour la première fois dans l’histoire fiscale moderne, les gouvernements usèrent explicitement de la dette pour financer les dépenses publiques courantes, incluant les transferts sociaux »^[59]. La dette elle-même finit par atteindre des niveaux tels que les intérêts versés et le service de la dette redeviennent significatifs et préoccupants.

De plus, pour conforter la confiance sur la stabilité de la valeur de la monnaie, la France s'interdit avec la loi du 3 janvier 1973 les concours de la Banque de France au Trésor public, notamment les émissions de crédit sans intérêt^[60]. Ceci revient à s'interdire de « faire marcher la planche à billet ». Cette décision de principe fut confirmée lors des nouveaux changements de statut de la Banque de France en 1993^[61]. Le recours à l'emprunt en est d'autant plus nécessaire.

Suprême garantie symbolique, l’emprunt Giscard du 18 janvier 1973 est indexé sur le cours de l'or. Mais cette indexation empêchera les finances publiques de profiter de l'importante inflation de la décennie suivante, les remboursements en monnaie « or » explosant par rapport à la monnaie courante, et finalement le consensus se fait sur la nécessité de combattre directement l'inflation, plutôt que de l'esquiver avec de coûteuses garanties de ce genre.

Au cours des années 1980, les États-Unis adoptent une politique monétaire désinflationniste (à partir de l’arrivée de Paul Volcker comme directeur de la Fed). Les autres pays pratiquent une politique similaire, par exemple la France à partir de 1983.

À partir de 1985, la réduction de l’inflation porte ses fruits, et l’État français (comme les autres pays développés) bénéficie de taux d’emprunt beaucoup plus faibles ; le taux moyen passe d’environ 11 % en 1985 à 5 % en 2000^[62]. La baisse des taux d'intérêt a permis à l'État de se refinancer à moindre coût (baisse du taux moyen des intérêts donc baisse des charges de la dette).

http://fr.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dette_publique_de_la_France

On avait déjà parlé de la loi Giscard-Pebereau sur le site, à laquelle l'on doit l'invention de la dette publique française.

Mais je suis certain que l'inflation peut encore être le pretexte à tant de choses merveilleuses...

je parlais bien sûr du bilan officiel de la FED.les Caïmans servent surtout aux multinationales US à conserver "off-shore" les bénéfices et les trésoreries de leurs filiales étrangères, et ainsi à échaper en toute légalité à l'imposition US et à l'imposition locale (la +value étant faite par la filiale des Caïmans qui facture ce qu'il faut aux filiales internationales pour qu'elles ne fassent qu'un bénéfice symbolique)

http://gonzalolira.blogspot.com/2010/10/signs-hyperinflation-is-arriving.html

le calendrier se précise

A FINAL CHECKLIST FOR EVERYONE
Bix Weir
Source:http://www.lemetropolecafe.com

My Road to Roota analysis shows that we literally days away from the breakdown of the entire fiat monetary system and I thought it a great time to go over final preparations for the coming chaos. In the grand scheme of things you can never be fully prepared for what is about to transpire because nobody on earth has been through it before...not to this scale. I guess the closest thing we can compare it to is the experience of the Germans in the early 1920's with the Weimar Republic. Look at how quickly their currency lost value:
Compound that onto a GLOBAL SCALE and the currency in question is ALL FIAT CURRENCIES IN EVERY COUNTRY and you can get an idea of just how big this is and how fast it can happen.Let me ask you an important question. How safe do you think ELECTRONIC ASSETS really are? I'm not that old but I can remember my first savings account and I was issued something called a "passbook" where the bank had a special stamp they put in my book to record every deposit and withdrawal I made. They also wrote it down in their ledger and signed off on the transaction. For some reason, the act of physically recording my fluctuating wealth made me feel very secure even though the access to my "wealth" was totally dependent upon the health and well being of my bank.That was only 40 years ago. Now days EVERYTHING is done on computers. Your balance, statements, checks, withdrawals, deposits have all been turned into little 1's and 0's and stored on magnetic disks. Oh, be assured that that's all computer data storage is... 1's and 0's recorded on a storage disk. They rarely even mail statements anymore...everything is VIRTUAL.Money is CREATED in the same way....with little 1's and 0's on magnetic discs. Convenient...yes. Durable...NO. Free from fraud...NO. Free from manipulation...NO. In the hands of the Bad Guys...YES! The fact is that computer wealth is even less reliable than paper wealth which in itself is not credible. It is not real wealth but a derivative of wealth. It is nothing but VIRTUAL WEALTH!You might laugh at the 17th century Dutch who experienced the first recorded financial bubble bursting with Tulip Mania.http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tulip_maniaHow could they have possibly believed that a FLOWER could take on the characteristics of money...of true wealth? Well, what do you figure those "Crazy Dutchmen" would think if we told them that we placed ALL our faith in tiny electronic 1's and 0's recorded on a magnetic disc? Who are the REAL FOOLS?Trust in electronic wealth has turned into some kind of MASS HYSTERIA. To think that the entire world has freely placed all their wealth in these little electric blips and in the hands of those who control all the 1's and 0's. What if those 1's and 0's were to disappear one day? Gone forever? What would you REALLY own then? Would you kick yourself for buying into the MASS HYSTERIA when it cracks?I guarantee you that our little experiment with "VIRTUAL WEALTH" is going to end very badly...and very soon!Let's talk about different scenarios of how these 1's and 0's can be erased from this world.
SCENARIO 1 - The EMP(Electro Magnetic Pulse)When I started writing this article a few days ago I found a VERY interesting article posted in the USA Today about the potential of an EMP (Electro Magnetic Pulse) going off over the US:http://www.usatoday.com/tech/science/2010-10-26-emp_N.htm?loc=interstitialskipI have talked a few times about this in past Friday Road Trips but having this article run so close to the coming financial implosion makes me wonder if SOMEONE may be trying to tell us something. Imagine if a large EMP hit the States. We are not just talking about "the grid" as the article suggests but rather EVERYTHING that is run by electronic blips including cars, gas pumps, food delivery and of course ALL OUR MODERN ELECTRONIC ASSETS such as bank deposits, 401k's, ETF's...I can go on and on.The fragility of our VIRTUAL lifestyle is massively underestimated. One big solar flare and we are TOAST. Back to horse and buggy days instantly.Of course, as I am writing this I snuck over to www.spaceweather.com to see if anything was percolating up on that big ball of fire in the sky and the first article I see is....Wednesday 10/27/2010: A BIG SUNSPOT GETS BIGGER: "Behemoth sunspot 1117 is not merely growing, it is transmogrifying. Since yesterday, the shape-shifting sunspot has developed a "beta-gamma" magnetic field that harbors energy for M-class solar flares. Any such eruptions will likely be geoeffective because the sunspot is almost-squarely facing Earth. Readers with solar telescopes are encouraged to monitor developments."
Although this "Behemoth sunspot" has since released it's energy AWAY from the earth, a direct hit of something this size would surely wreak havoc on our "high tech" electronic way of life.
SCENARIO 2 - The Super Computer VirusDo we really have to have a natural disaster to totally erase all those little electronic blips from our financial system? According to George Ure over at www.urbansurvival.com the latest Super Computer Virus could do virtually the same thing!The virus is called STUXNET and a description of it can be found here:http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/StuxnetThe big mystery behind this virus is WHO could have possibly spent the many years and many man hours to put together such an elaborate program. Mr. Ure tends to lean towards what he and Clif High call the PTB or "Powers That Be". At the Road to Roota Letters I like to call them the "Bad Guys".But what if this super virus wasn't the work of the Bad Guys...but the GOOD GUYS?! What if this is the FINAL END GAME of the long term implementation plans originally hatched up by Alan Greenspan and Stephen Devaux that is the premise of the Road to Roota Theory?http://www.roadtoroota.com/public/190.cfmIn my mind there are certain correlations that have sparked my interest down this line (road) of thinking. I have long suspected that Warren Buffett was working with the good guys (http://www.roadtoroota.com/public/243.cfm) but what about his close friend and confidant...BILL GATES?! They often spend hours talking about business and macroeconomic issues...much the way that Warren Buffet's father, Senator Howard Buffet, would talk to Warren at the dinner table when he was growing up. Howard Buffett battled the banking cabal for many years but was never able to achieve his ultimate goal of returning the United States to a fully backed Gold Standard. Here's an excerpt from what this amazing man said in the US Congress:Human Freedom Rests on Gold Redeemable MoneyBy HON. HOWARD BUFFETT U. S. Congressman from Nebraska (1948)IS TIME PROPITIOUSMost opponents of free coinage of gold admit that that restoration is essential, but claim the time is not propitious. Some argue that there would be a scramble for gold and our enormous gold reserves would soon be exhausted. Actually this argument simply points up the case. If there is so little confidence in our currency that restoration of gold coin would cause our gold stocks to disappear, then we must act promptly.The danger was recently highlighted by Mr. Allan Sproul, President of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, who said:"Without our support (the Federal Reserve System), under present conditions, almost any sale of government bonds, undertaken for whatever purpose, laudable or otherwise, would be likely to find an almost bottomless market on the first day support was withdrawn."Our finances will never be brought into order until Congress is compelled to do so. Making our money redeemable in gold will create this compulsion.The paper money disease has been a pleasant habit thus far and will not be dropped voluntarily any more than a dope user will without a struggle give up narcotics. But in each case the end of the road is not a desirable prospect. I can find no evidence to support a hope that our fiat paper money venture will fare better ultimately than such experiments in other lands. Because of our economic strength the paper money disease here may take many years to run its course.But we can be approaching the critical stage. When that day arrives, our political rulers will probably find that foreign war and ruthless regimentation is the cunning alternative to domestic strife. That was the way out for the paper-money economy of Hitler and others.In these remarks I have only touched the high points of this problem. I hope that I have given you enough information to challenge you to make a serious study of it.I warn you that politicians of both parties will oppose the restoration of gold, although they may outwardly seemingly favor it. Also those elements here and abroad who are getting rich from the continued American inflation will oppose a return to sound money. You must be prepared to meet their opposition intelligently and vigorously. They have had 15 years of unbroken victory.But, unless you are willing to surrender your children and your country to galloping inflation, war and slavery, then this cause demands your support. For if human liberty is to survive in America, we must win the battle to restore honest money.There is no more important challenge facing us than this issue -- the restoration of your freedom to secure gold in exchange for the fruits of your labors.END http://www.fame.org/PDF/buffet3.pdfTo Warren Buffett there was no greater man in the world than his father and he has made it one of his life's goals to finish his father's business. Those who claim that Buffett has "lost it" with all his recent comments are not seeing the big picture. He hasn't lost it but rather he is suckering EVERYONE in (and away from gold) so the wealth re-distribution after the big crash is more equitable. Eventually, Buffet will throw himself on the derivative sword to make sure the fiat monetary system implodes fully and finally this time.To continue...So is it too far fetched to imagine that Buffet and Gates would talk of monetary policy and/or the return to sound money over their long philosophical discussions about macroeconomics? I don't think so.Here's some clues as to their penchant for monetary metals. Both Buffett and Gates were investors in SILVER back in the early 2000's. Buffett with 120M oz of physical and Gates with a large ownership position in Pan American Silver (PAAS). Both sold out of their silver positions about the same time. Both have given away 1/2 their gigantic fortunes to charities and have urged other rich folks to do the same. What did they know about the coming destruction of fiat money? Did they try to do some good with all that money before it became WORTHLESS FIAT PAPER?Still with me? Along this line it struck me that the STUXNET computer virus is a "Windows-based" virus. Could Bill Gates have been recruited by the Good Guys (via Warren Buffet) to create and implant this virus around the world such that they could "pull the plug" on the fiat monetary system when they were ready? This angle may have legs but it is way out of my area of expertise.But there is one more thing that hits right to the heart of the Road to Roota early days and the first "Implementer" of the original market rigging programs - Stephen Devaux. This is from the Original Road to Roota article:http://www.roadtoroota.com/public/120.cfmHere's what I wrote about Stephen Devaux:****Stephen Devaux, the person who "adapted" the cartoon "Wishes and Rainbows", worked for the Federal Reserve in Boston...Mr. Devaux is now a world renowned author and trainer on "Project Management and Implementation" ...Stephen Devaux would have been the perfect person to implement the Greenspan plan. His teachings talk about long implementation time frames, and the necessity of profit enhancement during the process of change.Mr. Devaux worked for the Federal Reserve Bank for 9 years during the Gold Commission crisis. The 1980's is when many gold bugs believe Citicorp and Goldman Sachs implemented the trading programs for "managing" the markets.Devaux went to work for Citicorp right after his stint at The Federal Reserve Bank of Boston. His job at Citi was described as: "Developed and taught customer seminars in the implementation and use of Citicorp banking software." Oil and Gold were just the beginning. Then he went on to Fidelity to train them how to use his software in the share market.His last job before moving on to his own consulting firm was for Project Software and Development Inc or PSDI which supplied the software Maximo to the US Mint and almost every other high value asset business."Businesses, government agencies, and other organizations use PSDI's products across their enterprise to assist them in the management of their high-value capital assets, such as plants, facilities, and production equipment, to cut inventories and supply chain costs, control maintenance expenses, reduce downtime, and more effectively deploy productive assets, personnel and other resources."PSDI software is now owned by IBM and is embedded in asset control software throughout the world (…now is that "Total Project Control" or what?!). END******Are you starting to get the same chills I am? Could Stephen Devaux's computer programs still be out there lurking in the deep recesses of all those "high value capital assets"?Over the years I have tried to understand more about Stephen Devaux but I've always come up short of getting a full picture. From what I understand he is extremely confident in his professional beliefs to the point of being self righteous. He is also very private and, supposedly, incredibly altruistic.It seems to me that Stephen Devaux is the VERY LAST MAN in the world to walk away from a "Project" before it was finished! (Anybody who writes a book called "Total Project Control" and charges $140 for it likely takes himself very seriously and would want to see that his "total project" was FINISHED)http://www.amazon.com/Total-Project-Control-Integrated-Operations/dp/0471328596Has Devaux teamed up with Bill Gates to embed a Super Computer Virus hidden in the Windows Operating System and that now has "Total Project Control" over the Global Electronic Monetary System with the ability to destroy all those "electronic blips" we call ASSETS? Since I write a "Conspiracy Letter" I would have to say that it is VERY possible that Mr. Devaux is still heavily involved with the good guys and ready to "FLIP THE SWITCH" at any moment (next week maybe?). He's just not the kind of guy to walk away from such an important project as the Implementation of the Gold Standard!Just one more little bit on Devaux. He has a little quirk that may be a clue...STEPHEN DEVAUX LOVES PALINDROMES. Palindromes are anagrams (a type of word play) that are spelled the same way in either direction...like "EYE" or "RACECAR". Here's a letter he wrote that I found on the internet:"I have always been delighted by palindromes, and have spent many hours composing them. (My masterpiece: "A man? A prisoner! A cage? Iron! Did Noriega care? No, sir! Panama...") I had always regarded this as an idiosyncracy until, a few years ago, I saw a Devaux family tree which listed one of the 18th century branches as having an oldest son named Xuaved Devaux. tell me, is there any other evidence of love of palindromes among Devaux genes?" http://www.famille-louisdevaux.com/steve-devaux.htmSo why do I mention this quirky fact? Because when I was reading George Ure's analysis of the STUXNET virus I came across this statement:"Besides, somewhere down in the guts, the anagram of "STUXNET" might be just the PTB having their fun with us - and keeping up their old tricks of 'doing evil in plain sight' which seems to be one of their 'rules' of engagement. So is STUXNET and anagram for "T US NEXT" or "US NEXT T"? ENDYes. That's a HUGE stretch and not at all conclusive that Stephen Devaux is still involved with the Good Guys...BUT HE WAS IN CHARGE OF IMPLEMENTING THE OFFICIAL COMPUTER MARKET RIGGING IN THE 70'S AND 80'S so why assume he ever totally removed himself?!HOW MUCH CONTROL DOES THE LITTLE MAN BEHIND THE CURTAIN NOW HAVE?Ok...let's get back to earth for a bit. I'm not saying that either of the above scenarios are going to happen in mid November and send us back to the stone age but they are potential scenarios for the crash that the world so desperately needs to change our global monetary system.
SCENARIO 3 - Derivatives = Weapons of Mass Financial DestructionThe simple fact is that we really don't even need something so drastic as an electronic computer related meltdown. The popping of the Derivative Bubble would have a similar effect as it would freeze all financial assets in much the same way an EMP or Super Computer Virus would. Our VIRTUAL banking system is so interconnected with the way our entire system functions on a daily basis that the failure of only ONE large bank can bring the entire world to a grinding halt.The dominoes are easy to follow. One large bank fails who has derivative contracts with 20 others who have corresponding contracts with 100 others and all are leveraged 30-1 with "Off Balance Sheet Special Purpose Entities"...blah, blah, blah. All of a sudden people scramble to get their money out of their banks, the stock market, their 401k only to find out that it was all running off a "fractional reserve" system so nobody gets anything because there is no money to distribute. You know how the story goes...Can the world function without money? Would you go to work if you weren't getting a dime for it and your family needed you at home to protect them? Push that scenario across all professions and you begin to get a sense of what may happen. Our "advanced society" totally breaks down then the 1's and 0's are wiped clean from this earth. It matters not if it was caused by a natural disaster or a man made one or just your simple banking Derivative Meltdown.Everything will stop in it's tracks.Sorry if this scares you but you're much better off if you UNDERSTAND what may happen than if you are one of the BILLIONS who will be scared, lonely and confused waiting in line for days at the bank.
Many people have asked me the two big questions:"How long will it take?"and"What will I need to get through it?"Those are questions you need to answer for yourself. Everybody's situation is different so think through what you are going to need in case of a global banking breakdown. A good rule of thumb is surviving on your own for 4-6 months to be safe. If it goes on longer than that...well, go watch the movie "The Road" and you'll get the idea....
ALRIGHT: Break OUT of that mind set. Like I have said all along the Road to Roota...The Road to Roota Theory postulates that there is a group of people in the United States as well as around the world that are working to remove and destroy the financial banking powers that have secretly controlled all aspects of our lives for hundreds of years.The end result of all this will be GLORIOUS but we will have to go through the DARKNESS to reach the LIGHT!Use this FINAL CHECKLIST to prepare yourself for what is coming.Remove Yourself From The Electronic Financial System - The corruption, fraud and abuse goes so much deeper than anyone knows that the ONLY way to get beyond this mess is 100% collapse of the current system and start again. Without the complete collapse of all electronic and paper assets and debt there will be those in the shadows who continue to run the show. The $700B bailout was NOTHING when it comes to the "Shadow Banking System". I have heard estimates of total fiat monetary instruments in the QUINTILLIONS! If we try to "readjust" our system with something like www.NESARA.org we will only be hurting ourselves, delaying the pain and playing into the hand of the Bad Guys. We will feel that the problems were solved but a readjustment wouldn't take care of what lurks in the shadows. We need a complete and total CREATIVE DESTRUCTION EVENT that ZEROS out everything. That will be achieved in a derivative collapse and/or an EMP.So if you have any "assets" that are still entangled in the Electronic Financial System expect to lose them somewhere in the coming crash. That will most likely be balanced out by your holdings of gold and silver coin but only if it's in your own possession.Food & Water Storage - For anyone who's analyzed how quickly food stocks turn at your average grocery store the timing is scary at best. Even without any kind of panic mentality most perishables take only a few days to sellout and get restocked. Imagine what would happen if there was a financial breakdown with no new deliveries due to a collapse. We're talking only hours after the word starts to spread before all the shelves are wiped clean (most likely from looting as electronic transactions will freeze).So I recommend having a substantial amount of dried food on hand at all times. How much you will need will depend on the amount of people you will be sheltering and the duration of the collapse. I am of the view that the more dried food you have the better off you will be. Bartering with your extra food will prove to be very, very valuable if the problems persist.And don't forget water. You won't survive without water. If there is a total breakdown you won't be able to rely on the local utilities for ANYTHING for a while. Get yourself some large plastic kegs that can hold enough water for you to survive off for at least a month or two. You'll also need it to cook with.Gold, Silver & Cash - If there is a total breakdown of our electronic monetary system (as in wiped clean from the earth) you are going to want a nice pile of physical cash as well as gold and silver coins. The cash will be very valuable in the early stage of the crash because very few will have access to any and people are still conditioned to deal in fiat money. I suggest $1's, $5's, $10's and $20's. Also keep piling up that change that you currently toss into your change jar. It should go a long way right after the crash.As for gold and silver...it might take a while for them to be accepted by the masses. With the markets frozen shut even gold and silver diehards will not know the value of a 1oz eagle coin. It is likely that there will be some sort of announcement by the Government about backing the new currency with gold or silver but it will take a while for people to both understand and accept this transition. Pre-1965 90% silver coins may be a very good transition money as they are recognized as legal tender, have the form and shape of our current money and their purity is reliable as forgery of these coins has not been a problem due to their low value...at least at the moment. There will likely be warnings to watch out for fake gold and silver as the veil is lifted off the ETF fraud and the bars drilled.Piles of Basic Necessities and Just Stuff - One of the results of the currency crash will be the End of Globalization. This is easy to understand because nobody will be accepting fiat money any more. There will be anger at the US for basically defaulting on the dollar promises. China will nationalize all our factories and equipment in their country as payback. They will use this infrastructure to supply goods to their own population. Every other country will follow suit.Unfortunately, the US imports almost everything these days so expect massive shortages on "STUFF" even after we get back on our feet with a new domestic backed currency. Make a checklist starting with the basic necessities such as toilet paper, medicines, soap, cleaning supplies, clothes, etc. Then you should move on to survival gear such as matches, tents, sleeping bags, knives, camping gear, etc. Then think about barter stuff like cosmetics, alcohol, sporting goods, kids toys, bicycles, etc.EVERYTHING you stock up on can also be used for barter because there will be things that you didn't think of but will really, really want. Barter goes both ways.It will take some time before manufacturing of most goods starts again in the US. It will start with the necessities and slowly but surely we will rise from the ashes...but it will all be domestic production for a while.Protection & Safety - Given that you WILL be one of the few that is fairly prepared for this transition it is only appropriate that you protect your possessions as well as yourself and loved ones against those that were not as prepared and willing to take what they need. The obvious answer is getting a gun. I don't like to recommend it...but I will. If you do get a gun make sure you know how to use it and understand that it carries with it the ultimate moral responsibility. Don't use it UNLESS you have to.Having said that there are many other steps you can take to tighten up your security. Get a VERY LOUD alarm for your home (and a battery powered back-up). Get motion censored security lights. Get a BIG safe and anchor it into the ground. Get some sort of air filter breathing mask in case of disease outbreaks. Get a portable water purifier. If you are with a group of people get some walkie-talkies.But MOST of all GET TO KNOW YOUR NEIGHBORS as they will be your new community. You will need to band together and help each other through this. That old saying "there is safety in numbers" is something you should take to heart. Share your knowledge with them on how this all came about and the great potential for us to get though it if we stick together. YOU can change the way your community thinks and deals with the coming chaos. Yes, you might have to approach them AFTER the first signs of the crash because we all know how people react to us radical gold bugs already. But you can ease them into a NEW relationship you must development when things really start to fall apart. This local group will also be your barter partners so develop a good working relationship with your neighbors.Tools To Rebuild Your Future - Once the initial shock wears off we will ALL be able to CREATE A NEW LIFE for ourselves. Remember...there will be no more debt. If it all goes the way I think it is planned by the Good Guys we will all be started off with a nice chunk of cash (gold and silver backed) so everyone will be able to take some time to figure out what they want to do with their NEW future. Many of the old jobs will disappear (finance jobs will be cut back the most) but new jobs will be available as we rebuilt our civilization.So think about WHAT YOU ALWAYS WANTED TO DO but never had the time, money or confidence to do and start preparing for it now. What are the "tools of the trade" you might need for your new profession? It will take a while for manufacturing to get back on it's feet so you might want to stock up on supplies now to get a head start on the competition. Remember, people will have the means of payment but not so much the tools to be a producer. Get a head start while the tools are still available.Examples: If you always wanted to be a clothes designer stock up on fabrics and thread. An organic farmer should stock up on seed and fertilizer. A guitar player should stock up on strings and a recording equipment. A local bread baker should stock up on flour, ingredients and paper bags to sell their products. In the beginning our our rebirth everything will be small and community centric so think about what people will need, how you can contribute and what will fulfill your desires as a profession.These are just some of the things you should be thinking about to prepare for the coming changes. If you live in the city you will have different wants, needs and resources than someone who lives in the country. REALLY put your head to this topic and ACT before the chaos begins...which I believe to be mid-November.How long?I think the initial "Shock and Awe" period where EVERYTHING shuts down and there is mass global chaos will be about 1 week. Then I think there will be a very slow improvement as local communities band together trying to help each other through the crisis. My time frame for that is 3-4 months. These will be very hard and very dark days with a lot of anger, fear and chaos.OUR GLORIOUS FUTURE: After 3-4 months we will realize that we are finally FREE of the evil controllers that have held us in bondage for so long. We will rejoice in our new found freedoms and rejoice in the idea that we can create our own future full of peace and prosperity. The way we ALWAYS thought life should be if we had our choice. Now WE get to CHOOSE!!!HUMANITY HAS ARRIVED AT OUR LONG PROPHESIED CROSS ROADS...MAY GOD HELP US PICK THE RIGHT ROAD FROM HEREAll the best in your endeavors.Bix Weir www.RoadtoRoota.com

James Turk - Writing on the Wall, Hyperinflation is Very Near

http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/KWN_DailyWeb/Entries/2010/12/21_James_Turk_-_Writing_on_the_Wall,_Hyperinflation_is_Very_Near.html

Bloomberg fait un petit topo sur l'inflation dans les pays émergents, la hausse des prix des matières premières et leurs conséquences sur les marchés (les vrais marchés s'entend, c'est-à-dire chez les riches, je veux dire les blancs quoi, et qui de préférence parlent anglais, du moins c'est ce que je comprends de l'esprit de cet article, mais j'ai l'esprit mal tourné).

Chez nous on a pas à s'en faire avec l'inflation des pays émergents : ben oui, on n'est plus émergents depuis longtemps, on est complètement immergés sous une pluie de billets de banque.



Emerging-market consumer companies are valued at the most expensive levels on record just as surging food and energy costs curb household spending from Sao Paulo to Shanghai.

Shares in the MSCI Emerging Markets Consumer Discretionary Index traded at a 15-year high of 2.6 times net assets last week, data compiled by Bloomberg show. Wynn Macau Ltd., owned by billionaire Stephen Wynn’s casino company, fetched a record 28 times forecast profit. Mahindra & Mahindra Ltd., India’s biggest sport-utility vehicle maker, has a price-to-book ratio 53 percent higher than global peers, while Brazil’s Cia. Hering, producer of Hering brand apparel, commands a 15 percent premium.
Economic growth and supply shortages sent a United Nations gauge of food prices to a record last month, cutting the buying power of 2.8 billion people in Brazil, Russia, India and China who spend 19 percent of their income on groceries, compared with 6 percent in the U.S., Euromonitor International data show. Consumer shares were the second-worst performers among 10 industries in periods of rising inflation since 2001, according to Morgan Stanley.

“Inflation has really thrown a curve ball,” Jacob De Tusch-Lec, who helps oversee about $17 billion as a London-based money manager at Artemis Investment Management, said in a Jan. 14 telephone interview. “With food prices and energy prices being so high -- and it’s a big portion of consumer spending in Asia -- that could put a bit of a stop to that story.”


Emerging-market consumer companies are valued at the most expensive levels on record just as surging food and energy costs curb household spending from Sao Paulo to Shanghai.

Shares in the MSCI Emerging Markets Consumer Discretionary Index traded at a 15-year high of 2.6 times net assets last week, data compiled by Bloomberg show. Wynn Macau Ltd., owned by billionaire Stephen Wynn’s casino company, fetched a record 28 times forecast profit. Mahindra & Mahindra Ltd., India’s biggest sport-utility vehicle maker, has a price-to-book ratio 53 percent higher than global peers, while Brazil’s Cia. Hering, producer of Hering brand apparel, commands a 15 percent premium.

Economic growth and supply shortages sent a United Nations gauge of food prices to a record last month, cutting the buying power of 2.8 billion people in Brazil, Russia, India and China who spend 19 percent of their income on groceries, compared with 6 percent in the U.S., Euromonitor International data show. Consumer shares were the second-worst performers among 10 industries in periods of rising inflation since 2001, according to Morgan Stanley.

“Inflation has really thrown a curve ball,” Jacob De Tusch-Lec, who helps oversee about $17 billion as a London-based money manager at Artemis Investment Management, said in a Jan. 14 telephone interview. “With food prices and energy prices being so high -- and it’s a big portion of consumer spending in Asia -- that could put a bit of a stop to that story.”

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-01-25/bric-inflation-imperils-priciest-consumer-stocks-as-food-bills-increase.html?pid=msnmoney&t=ctx-ok&pos=1


Sinon, chez Jova, entre deux interviews au cirage de Marine Le Pen, on apprend que le cours de la patate a pris + 50% en 2010, soit mieux que l'or.


Génial ! Je vais de ce pas faire dissidence et créer mon forum : " Patate Investor".


Mais bon, c'est vrai que la patate c'est plus compliqué à stocker et à conserver pendant l'hiver, alors je vais peut-être réfléchir encore un peu.

pascalbrutal a écrit:

Sinon, chez Jova, entre deux interviews au cirage de Marine Le Pen, on apprend que le cours de la patate a pris + 50% en 2010, soit mieux que l'or.


Génial ! Je vais de ce pas faire dissidence et créer mon forum : " Patate Investor".


Mais bon, c'est vrai que la patate c'est plus compliqué à stocker et à conserver pendant l'hiver, alors je vais peut-être réfléchir encore un peu.

ou coton Investor

L'indice du prix du blé a augmenté de
52%, celui du froment de 49% et du soja de 28%.

Les cultures
commerciales des denrées de consommation non courante ont également
grimpé en flèche, le café ayant augmenté de 53% et le coton de 119%.

Les leaders mondiaux de la distribution
des produits alimentaires enregistrent actuellement des bénéfices
record grâce à la flambée des prix de la production alimentaire.


Cargill, le leader mondial de la distribution des denrées alimentaires,
a vu ses bénéfices tripler au cours du quatrième trimestre de 2010, atteignant 1,49 milliards par rapport aux 489 millions de
2009.



Au marché, ce matin, les Français vont en avoir gros sur la
patate : le prix du kilo de pommes de terre s’affiche cette semaine 43 %
plus cher que l’an dernier, atteignant un prix
moyen de 0,63 € le kilo, selon le baromètre national
hebdomadaire* réalisé dans 150 grandes et moyennes surfaces de France.
Une augmentation paradoxale puisque la consommation de ce
féculant a augmenté de 3,5 % en France pour l’année écoulée.



Du côté des producteurs, on explique cette hausse par des
niveaux de récolte catastrophiques ces deux dernières années. « L’an
dernier, la production française de pommes de terre a
diminué de l’ordre de 4,4 % par rapport à l’année précédente,
principalement en raison des mauvaises conditions météorologiques. Et de
l’autre côté la demande est plus forte. Résultat,
cela s’est répercuté sur les prix affichés en magasin au cours
de l’année 2010 », analyse François-Xavier Broutin, porte-parole de l’Union nationale des producteurs de pommes de
terre (UNPT).



Les 40 % restants sont affectés à l’exportation, en particulier vers la
Russie et les pays de l’Est qui, après les incendies de l’été dernier,
doivent faire face à d’importantes
pénuries.

http://www.naturalnews.com/031123_food_inflation_prices.html#ixzz1CFFSd3fZ

(NaturalNews) Grocery prices increased at more than 50
percent the rate of inflation in 2010, according to data from the U.S. Bureau of
Labor Statistics.

Food prices increased an average of 1.7 percent between
November 2009 and November 2010, in comparison with a general inflation rate of
only 1.1 percent. The greatest price increases were seen among meat, poultry,
fish and eggs, which went up in cost by 5.8 percent. The price of sugar and
sweets increased 1.2 percent, the price of fats and oils increased 3 percent and
the price of dairy-based products increased 3.8
percent.

The only commodities to go up in price more than food were medical care and
transportation.

"I noticed just this month that my grocery bill for the
same old stuff -- cereal, eggs, milk, orange juice, peanut butter, bread --
spiked $25," said Sue Perry, deputy editor of "ShopSmart" magazine. "It was a
bit of sticker shock."

The rises in price were caused in part by
climate-related crop failures in several major food exporting countries. In
addition, rising demand for corn from the biofuels industry has pushed up prices for animal feed,
leading to higher meat, dairy and egg costs. Finally,
rising fuel prices have
increased food production and transportation costs as well.

Prices are
only likely to keep rising. The Department of Agriculture has forecast a further
3 percent rise in food
prices in 2011, but openly admits that the estimate is
conservative.

"The USDA always plays it safe," said Wells Fargo
agricultural economist Michael Swanson. Swanson predicted price increases of 4
percent, the highest since the 5.5 percent increases that led to riots worldwide
in 2008.

Major food producers including Kraft and General Mills have
already announced plans to increase the prices of their products. Just how much
of that increase will be passed along to consumers is uncertain, as retailers
may try to force prices lower to keep shopper volume high.

"Food is a
high-frequency driver," Swanson said. "So if stores like Walmart and Kmart want
to get shoppers in the door, it's to their benefit to keep prices
low."

Sources for this story include: http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/artic....




Learn
more: http://www.naturalnews.com/031123_food_inflation_prices.html#ixzz1CHfYJ7HU

Ah oui ! Quand même...

According To Its National Bureau Of Statistics, Chinese Food Prices Have Increased By 4.6% In Ten Days!



This is simply stunning. A quick parsing of the data released every ten days by the National Bureau Of Statistics of China indicates that the average price of food in 50 cities in the January 21-31 period has increased by 4.6% compared to the prior 10 day period (and 416% annualized)!

Granted, this is a simple average calculation of the 29 food items tracked without any weighing, although a quick glance at the components confirms that tonight's Chinese CPI will likely be a doozy.

Some of the key changes: cucumbers up 28.2% in ten days, kidney beans up 21.9%, rapes [no pun] up 14.5%, tomatoes up 12.9%, hair tails up 4.7%, bananas up 3.6%, chickens up 3.1%.

And this, again, is in the past 10 days! But not all is lost: Soybean oil actually dropped by 0.1%. Time for China to release an adjusted adjusted CPI which excludes all foodstuffs except for Soybean oil (and remember, in China, food is 31.4% of CPI)... which actually is exactly what is about to happen.



http://www.zerohedge.com/article/according-its-national-bureau-statistics-chinese-food-prices-have-increased-46-ten-days


Bientôt on mangera des naps', ça sera moins cher.

salut Pascal , au sujet de l'inflation des prix alimentaires en chine , Ubu roi, me fait parvenir cette forte judicieuse remarque ... sur les dates du nouvel an chinois qui changent chaque année

Citation :

Auj. à 17:23

Sur Hardin tu as posté aujourd'hui un message sur l'inflation en Chine : +4.6% sur les produits alimentaires en 10 jours. Celui qui rapporte l'info et toi semblez avoir oublié que c'était juste avant le nouvel an chinois (3 février 2011). Ca n'est pas comparable avec les chiffres de l'an dernier, puisque le nouvel an chinois avait eu lieu le 14 février.

Je ne nie pas qu'il y ait une réelle inflation sur les prix alimentaires en Chine, mais pour une fois tu as rapporté une info non significative.

Cordialement.

PS : l'an prochain, le nouvel an chinois tombera le 23 janvier.

Bon ok admettons.

L'année chinoise du LAPIN DE METAL BLANC a débuté le 3 février 2011

Celle du DRAGON D'EAU commencera le 23 janvier 2012.

Le Nouvel An Chinois 农历新年 (nónglì xinnián) aussi appelé Fête du printemps 春节(chunjié) ou Fête du Têt au Vietnam est la fête la plus importante pour les communautés chinoises à travers le monde entier. Le terme nónglì xinnián signifie littéralement "nouvel an du calendrier agricole" car il se célèbre suivant le calendrier chinois qui est à la fois lunaire et solaire. Cette fête est un moment dont on profite en prenant des vacances, en se réunissant en famille et entre amis.

Le Lapin ou lièvre 兔 (tù), selon le zodiaque chinois, est sociable, discret, raffiné, astucieux, perspicace, sensible. Il s'entend bien avec la Chèvre ou le Cochon.

Lapins célèbres : Jet Li, Zac Efron, Angelina Jolie, Brad Pitt, David Beckham, Enrique Iglesias, Eva Longoria, Johnny Depp, Quentin Tarantino, 50 Cents, Coolio, George Michael, Peter Fonda, Whitney Houston, Roger Moore, Jane Seymour, Sting, Orson Welles...



http://www.chine-informations.com/nouvelanchinois/


Mais malgré tout, est-ce que le concombre est l'équivalent chinois de la dinde aux marrons et du foie gras ?

Parce que + 28% quand même ça fait beaucoup.

Surtout quand la banane et le poulet font un médiocre + 4%...


...et que le cours du lapin demeure assez scandaleusement dissimulé aux opérateurs de marché.


Donc en résumé, je suis tout à fait prêt à admettre que les chiffres proposés par ZH ne peuvent être pris sans pondération sur la période. Mais je ne suis pas totalement certain qu'ils ne sont pas malgré tout significatifs de quelque chose comme une accélération du phénomène.


A vérifier sur les évolutions ultérieures.

Citation :

Mais malgré tout, est-ce que le concombre est l'équivalent chinois de la dinde aux marrons et du foie gras ?

Parce que + 28% quand même ça fait beaucoup.

Surtout quand la banane et le poulet font un médiocre + 4%...


...et que le cours du lapin demeure assez scandaleusement dissimulé aux opérateurs de marché.

Donc en résumé, je suis tout à fait prêt à admettre que les chiffres proposés par ZH ne peuvent être pris sans pondération sur la période. Mais je ne suis pas totalement certain qu'ils ne sont pas malgré tout significatifs de quelque chose comme une accélération du phénomène.


A vérifier sur les évolutions ultérieures.

+1, Pascal... et on sait tous ici ... que la chine s'énerve bien .. à tenter d'enrayer l'inflation .. après, tout est question de chiffres et d'accélération .. mais sur la bouffe, c'est clair que ça s'accélére et pas qu'en chine ( voir l'ensemble des hausses phénoménales des cours mat 1eres alimentaires)

Ce sont là des chiffres considérables... n81 ++ Des fois, c'est chiant d'avoir à ce point raison...

J'ai déjeuné à midi avec des clients chinois.


D'après eux, les prix auraient plutôt tendance à doubler (au moins) pendant la période (en gros, 5 jours avant la date du nouvel an et jusqu'à cette date).


A la limite, les chiffres indiqués par ZH donnent l'impression d'avoir été déjà sur-pondérés.


Bref, pas facile d'y voir très clair.

aux usa, même les stats bidonnées du PPI donnent
-du 9.6 % an pour les biens manufacturés ,
- 13% pour le semi manufacturé et 39% pour l'indice brut des marchandises !
- 11.5 % pour les produits bruts ( sur 3 mois )

http://www.economicpolicyjournal.com/2011/02/serious-inflation-signs-in-ppi-numbers.html

Citation :

Deflationism should be dead by now. I just got off the phone with a good friend/colleague who operates a food retailing business. He told me standard non-organic hothouse tomatoes have gone up in price to $51 per case from $25 last week and $42 per case this last Monday. He said he's selling bulk food containers like there's no tomorrow

c'est pourtant pas le nouvel an chinois à Denver !!

http://truthingold.blogspot.com/2011/02/couple-of-quickies-today-more-on.html

je reviens sur la chine.. dont on sait à quel point (les occidentaux n'ont pas le monopole ) les stats officielles sont traffiquées

Analysis: China's inflation overhaul clouded by data doubts
(Reuters) - Like a home renovation that reveals old cracks, China's overhaul of its main inflation gauge has exposed long-standing problems in the reliability of official data.
While some suspect that Beijing is intentionally seeking to mislead, the main worry is that the government has been far too slow to keep up with changes sweeping over the economy and so is not painting an accurate picture of the reality on the ground.
http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/02/16/us-china-economy-inflation-idUSTRE71F27K20110216